Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime

[dpatent1]

I tip the hat to HP for the contest results and anybody else who did well.

In real life, with ability to weigh post time odds and scratches, today was a great day for the Sheets.  I don\'t know how TG players did but -- and I\'ll rub it in a bit -- I cashed 4 IRS tickets, including the Belmont tri (and a small win bet on the longest winning price in Belmont history), and the tris for races 3, 11, and 12.  Total profit -- and no syndicates here, was over $14,000.  And I do have witnesses, some Rag. players who were waiting with me to cash their IRS tickets.

The 12, Quiet One  was a huge play on both pattern and numbers in race 11.  In race 12, the 5 had the best turf numbers and was a good key in that race.  It helped, of course for a 24:1 shot to get put up by DQ.

The reason why the Sheets were so valuable today was not just that there were several horses that were very fast who went off at good odds, but the Sheets allowed me to toss out several horses getting lots of money who did not have a chance -- 3rd race One Tuff Fox and the 8 were tosses; Yankee Gentleman was a toss; War Emblem was a toss, and the favorite in the 12th was a toss on the Sheets -- ugly patterns make for ugly results by the horses making those patterns.  BTW, per my previous post that some doubted, MDO\'s pattern did apparently signal that today was likely a day he would run well.  I don\'t know how he looked on the TG sheets, but I did post yesterday that his Rag. Sheet pattern was a familiar one (see Quixote\'s Hope on May 18 at Pim) that signalled a good effort.

There\'s been a lot of trash talking by a couple people on this board (not by you HP), and I\'ll be glad to photocopy my W2s for you Alydar if you doubt me -- and sure it\'s just one day, but, when it\'s this good a day, your ROI will look pretty good for the rest of the year.

Well, that\'s all the gloating for now.  I hope that HP and others did better in real betting than we did in the contest.

[JRL]

Add to that Judge\'s Case, which was a great bet at 29 to 1.

Unfortunately, I did not do nearly as well as David (even though I bet to win on Sarava and had the exacta, I did not have him on top in my tri), but I still had a pretty good day.

I don\'t know what JB had to say about the day.  Friedman\'s analysis would not have directly led you to the winner.  However, when you have a bunch of horses with crappy patterns primed to run terrible at short prices (e.g. War Emblem and Proud Citizen), combined with horses that have good patterns at huge prices that are a little slower than the rest (e.g. Sarava), you have the potential for a big score.

BTW, speaking of Proud Citizen.  How many nice horses does Lukas have to break down before people stop calling him a genius.

[Anonymous User]

Firstly, War Emblem is a Holy Bull of sorts. A very headstrong horse. I wouldn\'t be gloating upon my fine analysis if I \"won\" due to a starting gate mishap. If I won I\'d count my lucky stars. Maybe even look up to the heavens and say \"Thank You Horse in the Sky.\"  OH..but wait a minute. You didn\'t win! Then what was all that Sheets \"find the up and comer\" Bla Bla Bla? Oh you say you won, but unless I\'m reading your selection inaccurately on the board you picked that turd of an animal \"Perfect Dread\". It was clear pre-race Sarava was gonna be 50-1 plus so don\'t try and pull \"The race odds led me to the bet\". You selected the gelded,third place clunk up, lose leads late, crappola bred for the distance, no chance in hell to win Perfect Dread. And he ran without legitimate excuse for the dismal showing he made. They run that race 100 more times and Dread never cracks the top two spots.

I lost too, but not as badly as you. My horse had a big chance.

Pitiful

[Michael D.]

I posted my on track picks just for fun, and I only did it because I came out just about even with my non posted picks. I stand by my posted picks, which were decent but not great. I must, however, introduce a rule for contest #2. If your posted picks lost, YOU LOST!!!!!!!!!!! These contests don\'t prove who is the best handicapper, but everybody seems to blast the professionals when they pick incorrectly. Well, the professionals have to pick the day before as well. So next time, no after the fact \"I swear, I really did have it, I will come to your house and show you the ticket before I cash it\". It was fun though. I could do it live up at Saratoga if anybody is interested.... (and yes, DP, I do believe you, but every pro picks the day before, and it is on those picks how they are judged)

[Anonymous User]

I doubt 4 IRS cashers on the basis of your demonstrated acumen and take you up on your offer to post them. No way in the world I want additional inane email blather so copy them and post them here. To your credit you didn\'t toss Sarava but your picks in no fashion demonstrate any kind of evidence you thought he had a prayer to get up. And pre-race his odds were certain to be very high.  

@!#$ happens in horse racing and its always good to be the beneficiary of it, but War Emblem\'s failure to hit the board was not a result of your cherished patterns. Taking credit for it once again demonstrates you\'re naivete. Mr. Patient you hammered the wise guy horse without a prayer or legitimate excuse and you showed your fine handicapping ability by wheeling him in every possible way. I\'m surprised you didn\'t fourth place Superfecta Wheel him. Now that’s handicapping.

But what topped off was your inability to really understand a pattern was your belief Boat Hollow was regressing. Especially regressing on a victory laughing, in a marginally slower time, what complete lunacy!

It was a marginal win, but HP and Thorograph take the Belmont and The Sheets lose a notch in credibility. Not so much on the results, but on the sour grapeing. \"It\'s ok I lost, my patterns are really better and I\'m really a whiner. I mean winner.\" Stick around you\'re good for a laugh, maybe a Travers Day rematch is in order. And maybe, just maybe Perfect Dread can earn back some of those horribly invested cyber dollars for you. We\'ll see who the better loser really is. David M. Patient or War Emblem.

lol

Tabi

[HP]

David I\'m glad you did so well. I would have let this drop, given the results, but this post takes the cake.

The only thing you\'re rubbing in is your own bad taste in past-posting wins that you gave no mention of whatsoever despite having plenty of time to put them up. I lost yesterday. How you did at the windows is almost entirely irrelevant, because it involves factors that had nothing to do with this challenge. The challenge was all about two guys sitting around the night before the race, looking at the card, and making their points using their respective products. Given the results, and the fact that we each cashed the same race, I would say this hardly demonstrates superiority for either product. However, with all things being equal, when you used the Ragozin SHEETS, and I used the TG sheets, you LOST this heads-up battle, and everybody saw it. I would agree that this is hardly worth $14,000, but it is less than great for you in terms of your credibility regarding your endless blathering about methodology. A couple of additional points I must mention.

Your bad taste here is equalled only by your bad taste in the way you post (which is what started this whole thing in the first place), where you buttress your arguments over here with one-sided slams (hilarious jokes) on the other board. Your big day at the track changes nothing on this count, and your post here reveals that this kind of thing (you can\'t just make your points without propping yourself up or patting yourself on the back) consistently informs your character.

The way I played in the contest was pretty much how I played the card, except for a few instances where unanticipated prices indicated a few extra plays.

We agree completely on the tosses of One Tuff Fox, War Emblem and Yankee Gentleman.

In the 3rd race, you included like 6 or 7 horses and most pointedly did NOT include Sherpa Guide, so the horse couldn\'t have looked that good on the SHEETS. On TG he fell in range with every other competitive horse except for Thunder Blitz (who had a faster back number), Personable Pete (I thought he would back up) and Prime Customer (who I think also had one back number that was better). To me it looked like about 7 horses had a shot. Jerry was more in line with you on Personable Pete. I tossed him, which is obviously why I didn\'t cash the race, but the field was so competitive I just took a stab at the longshots in exotics, not seeing how I could take Personable Pete at 2-1 in such a closely matched field. Used Sherpa Guide, who on TG was as good as any and ridiculous value at 33-1. Next.

Would agree that Judge\'s Case was huge value and used him, again failing to back with a win bet. I didn\'t like El Gran Papa.

Your points on the Belmont are self-serving in the extreme. You had all the time in the world to study the race and blew it like everyone else, and now you\'re blowing your horn that you hit. Mazel tov, but mark my words, posting this kind of thing will come back to haunt you somehow. I\'m sure you used the SHEETS to come up with Sarava, and you didn\'t know if he would be a price so you didn\'t throw him in. Is that about right, Dave?.

Your subsequent hits (11 and 12) were made on the fly, so they must have looked so good on the SHEETS that you were keeping them a secret to help your prices. I used Quiet One too.

To sum up, David, the $14,000 changes nothing, you demonstrate nothing here except your lack of character, and you lost. HP

[Mall]

His last 3 Rags nos starting with the most recent were 11.75 9.75 14.5, with an 8.5 top as a 3 yr old. Unless there is a new Rags theory which I don\'t know about, SG was close to an impossible Rags play in a race where it appeared that a Rags 6 or lower was needed to win. His last three TG nos were 4.5 7.75 9.25 where it looked like a 3 or 3&change would win. Like I said, contender on TG & toss on Rags.

[Friendly]

Looks like the same people here that were congratulating JB for his past-posting syndicate score in the Derby are whining about some nice Sheet scores.

HyPocrites....same old story

[superfreakicus]

\"His last three TG nos were 4.5 7.75 9.25 where it looked like a 3 or 3&change would win. Like I said, contender on TG & toss on Rags.\"


maybe if you had used him in the contest, you wouldn\'t be a zero.

[HP]

Jerry Jr.,

There is NO comparison to the present instance, where Patent is claiming scores with horses HE DID NOT MENTION. At least Jerry cited the horses that came in, and then your brilliant comment was along the lines that he \'boxed the field\', which is nonsense coming from a Raggie (home of the \'use most of the field lightly in exotics\' school of handicapping).

Nobody is whining about Sheet scores. I congratulate Patent on his wins. However, since he didn\'t post them before the races, they are the meaningless equivalent of anyone else\'s claim that they scored after the fact. HP

[superfreakicus]

\"It was a marginal win, but HP and Thorograph take the Belmont and The Sheets lose a notch in credibility.\"

I don\'t know how this gets to be a sheets vs. tg thing, when neither party participated, but if you think the sheets didn\'t score here, you must be drinkin\' mall\'s bathtub moonshine.

I\'d like to point out that I used the sheets to bet 10 races(?), and cashed $1400 ---- burying HP.
Mike only beat me by a little, and the 2 big winners I\'ve seen so far were a guy who had 30 bucks of his thousand on 70-1 sarava, and a guy who bet 2 horses.
I hardly even look at the racing form.

[HP]

Supe, you lost, by plenty. You can split anytime now. HP

[tegger]

David and other Raggies,

You say that the sheets led to Sarava.  The people such as Robes that run Ragozin must be idiot since reading their own sheets they decided that Sarava had absolutely no chance.  As always, Rags players have a great day handicapping after the results are already posted.  Good handicapping - could you please tell me who is going to win the presidential election between Nixon and Kennedy using the Rags sheets.  Thanks for your always insightful and unbiased observations.

Sarava: Hero of the Preakness day card is somewhat overmatched here. Too many races in short time span and no current forward movement make him unlikely to me.

Read the above quote:  the proof is in the pudding.

[Friendly]

HP the only difference is that Jerry posted an anlysis of the race instead of a possible play (though he may have posted that too). Depending upon how deep you went (eight horses in this case), you could have had War Emblem in the Derby from JB\'s \"analysis\". You had no idea from that \"analysis\" that War Emblem could be used on top.

You said, \"...where Patent is claiming scores with horses HE DID NOT MENTION. At least Jerry cited the horses that came in...\"

Ahh, but you are mistaken HP, Patent did mention them - the results were 12-8-5, they were all mentioned (8 horses, just like Jerry)

Race 10 -- $1 tris
6 with 2,4,5,8,9,11,12
2,4,5,8,9,11,12 with 6 with 2,4,5,8,9,11,12
2,4,5,8,9,11,12 with 2,4,5,8,9,11,12 with 6
$3 exactas 5,6,8,11 with 4
5,6,8,11 with 12

C\'mon HP, I know you have it in you to be more gracious - there\'s no need to be HyPoctrical.

[HP]

Waste of time. It\'s a losing play keying Perfect Drift. Have it your way. HP