Changing Track Speed - Justification

[bobphilo]

While watching a PBS special on Sir Isaac Newton on PBS last night I was reminded of the current debate as to whether evidence of track maintenance is required before a race is cut loose from others. We consider Newton as the quintessential man of science but when he proposed his Universal Law of Gravitation he was severely criticized for the “unscientific” statement that gravity can be assumed solely from it’s effects with no evidence of how one body would “magically” attract another. To this day, physicists are still struggling for the solution with everything from gravitrons to a bending of space-time.  
This is a lot like saying that one cannot acknowledge a phenomena, whether it be the falling of an apple to Earth or a change in track speed, from it’s effects, without an explanation in terms of track maintenance, drastic weather change, etc.
To say this additional “evidence” is required to justify cutting a race loose is like saying we can’t trust gravity because we don’t have proof for why it works.

Bob  

[TGJB]

It\'s funny you bring up the gravity thing, because that\'s the exact analogy I have used myself. My cat can\'t explain how it works, but he knows enough not to jump off a roof. As did most of the people who came in the centuries before Newton, even if they were unlucky enough not to have been hit by apples. And if they didn\'t, they found out they had a problem whether they understood why or not.

I have one small problem with your analogy. If I am sitting under an apple tree and get hit in the head with an apple, it was probably gravity. But it could also be some kids throwing apples or something else I\'m not paying attention to. So be before I blame gravity, I should look around carefully. :-)  

[TGJB]

Oy vei.

WE DON\'T CARE WHETHER IT WAS GRAVITY. WE DON\"T EVEN HAVE TO KNOW WHAT GRAVITY IS.

GET IT?

In some cases it might not be changes in track speed (gravity in this case) that cause the variations in final times we see. If you always assume it was a change in track speed (or any other single factor), but it was actually something else, you could make a mistake in result intepretation.

[HP]

\"We can lick gravity, but sometimes the paperwork is overwhelming.\"

Werner von Braun

[TGJB]

CH-- you are getting perilously close to convincing me that you are an idiot. And I\'m not going to waste time going through this with you again-- if you don\'t understand what we\'re saying from what\'s been written here already, there is no hope.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Some day\'s I\'m just amazed by this board.

From Sir Issac Newton to Earnest Hemmingway, The former Rev James Jones (cool Aid) to Freidman/Ragozin, to Beyer and TGJB, Six Sigma, Binomial Distributions, variables and variants both known and unknown, Dutrow to Lukas,Drug Oneil to Jeff \"Degenerate Gambler\" Mullins,  EPO to Other meds, East coast vs west coast, Chucles the Clown and DavidRx, Barry Irwin to Classhandicapper (sorry Barry), you have got to admit this board can be very entertaining and has lots of diversity.

NC Tony

[bobphilo]

Class,

 That\'s the whole point. If my aching head tells me I\'ve been beaned, I don\'t need to know whether it was an apple falling from a tree, some punk kids, or low flying aliens are responsible, to know I have a bump on my head.
Similarly, if the horses\' performances tell me the track speed changed, I don\'t need to know if track maintenance, weather, shift in ground water tables, etc caused it. I\'m much more concerned with quantifying it\'s effects so I can make the appropriate adjustment to the variant for that race.

Bob

TGJB,

\"To say this additional “evidence” is required to justify cutting a race loose is like saying we can’t trust gravity because we don’t have proof for why it works.\"

I won\'t rehash the obvious point I am making because I\'d prefer not to be cofrontational, but insults are not necessary.

We may not require proof of track maintenance to break a race out, but the variations of times we see are not always related to changes of track speed just as an apple hitting us in the head is not always gravity. There\'s a important point there and I think you know you what it is.

bob,

\"Similarly, if the horses\' performances tell me the track speed changed
I don\'t need to know if track maintenance, weather, shift in ground water tables, etc caused it.\"

You are missing my point. You are assuming that performances measured based on the final times always tell you whether or not the track changed speeds when it could be something else that caused some or all of them to run faster or slower.  

[TGJB]

This is my last point on the subject with you. And your next one will be your last.

YOU ARE MAKING CAUSE AND EFFECT ASSUMPTIONS. We are not.

[HP]

\"it could be something else that caused some or all of them to run faster or slower.\"


You mean something like.....pace!.....right, Class?

TGJB,

Fine, my point requires a detailed discussion that is not worth the trouble and would only lead to more hostility. I know the point I am making and why and that\'s enough.  

HP,

Any number of things that are tough to quantify, measure, and prove that are part of the general thinking of many horseplayers.