Buried

[Silver Charm]

Was the race AP Arrow ran in the Clark a \"buried race\" or should I take any thoughts I might have of this horse being a decent four year old next year and bury them right here and now.

[TGJB]

SC-- just for you, I gave him a buried mark. And now everybody knows.

[Silver Charm]

Well I really feel honored. Maybe I will quit my day job and become one of your trackmen. But seriously the \"Cowboy\" who trains him would never do anything like that on purpose would he.

On a more serious vein when TG assigns the \"buried race\" designation what are some of the general critieria. Is this a judgment call of the trackman, figure maker or both.

In the case of AP Arrow it wasn\'t really an open and shut case thats why I asked. He was only one wide on the first turn but was at least five wide on the far turn and fanned ten wide turning for home. The move also seemed a little premature for a horse who had not been out in a couple of months.


If you remember Zackocity was coming off a 1 and a buried and still went off at 30-1 on Sunshine Millions Day just losing by a head.  

[TGJB]

The buried designation is done by the figure maker, and almost always at the tracks I do, since I\'m the figure maker who bets most seriously, and mine are the tracks that most people bet. I put the marks to flag concealed efforts that could be important later, so that someone who is going through a lot of races quickly can see that a performance may be better than it appears to the non-TG public. I might use it for a horse that runs sixth while running a new top first time on grass, or a horse that is eighth while wide in a fast maiden race, or one that is spotting a lot of weight, etc.

[NoCarolinaTony]

TGJB

Do you have a notation for what may be the exact opposite where a horses final figure may be better (Good on paper)but was acheived with favorable circumstances. In otherwords the Final Fig is very good but favorable circumstance may have led to this figure. Recent examples of this may be High Limit La Derby,Borrego in the JCGC, or Pleasant Home in BC Distaff. Again this would have to be subjective and at the discretion of the Figure Maker.

I think both are key items worth knowing.

NC Tony

[TGJB]

Tony-- that\'s not the exact opposite. The exact opposite is a performance that looks better than the FIGURE it received (we used to call this \"reversed buried\"). It has nothing to do with the theory that circumstances could be positive or negative for earning the figure itself-- just about the relationship between the figure and what the performance looks like in terms of accomplishment, to the general public.

In other words, Super Frolic\'s races early this year were better than they looked (big figures in small races, so buried, even though I didn\'t mark them). Artie Schiller\'s Mile win was reverse buried-- he ran a good deal better in his previous start despite losing.

[bobphilo]

Timeform frequently add a symbol to their ratings such as,  + to indicate, “the horse may be much better thanTimeform has rated it” and ? to indicate, “ the performance may not be worth the rating shown; the horse may be flattered” (the concept of horse flattery always gives me a chuckle).
Of course, Timeform ratings are much more subjective, so explanatory symbols are much more necessary.

Bob

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jerry,

The reason I even bring it up is because of your ability to identify both and your handicapping skills. Since we are paying a decent amount for the product, and as you have stated above the ability to identify both scenarios for your customers, identification of either scenario to facilitate our handicapping (so to speak) efforts. Any special insights that can be gleaned in addition to the figure themselves is most valuable to us handicappers.

But more to my point, what about those efforts I mentioned whose results were more a direct result of the way that particular race was run, vis a vis, the horse truly earing the figure (ie Ghostzapper or St. Liam). I kind of like what Bob mentoned with Time form. Again its completely subjective. But that is why we buy your product and not the other guys, because we believe in the product. Maybe thats why you want us to buy the analysis along with the sheets!!

I guess what I am saying is, if you as the figure maker have reason to suspect a figure was earned more as a result of the way a race was run vs truly earning it(your opinion), I as a purchaser of your product would like to know that. Maybe That\'s taking it one step too far. (Hey I want to make my job a little easier...who doesn\'t).

NC Tony

[bdhsheets]

NCT:

\"Maybe thats why you want us to buy the analysis along with the sheets!!\"

One of the great problems with the analysis, is that there is no analysis. The \"why\" normally isn\'t addressed.

[TGJB]

Tony-- the \"analysis\" is essentially picks, for those who are not serious handicappers themselves. We have said for years that you are better off learning how to use the data yourself and make your own decisions-- there are just too many things you can\'t really know until 10 minutes to post, like odds, track conditions, and late changes. The Cigar was a perfect example of this-- the tote board was upside down, with many slower horses shorter than the fast ones. Who knew Purge would be 25-1 the night before?

On your other points-- no, I\'m not going to try to figure out which races are reverse buried-- first of all, it\'s much harder, and secondly, there is no need to flag those-- you won\'t be betting on them, but against them, and you will see that they are short. The only point of the marks is to flag horses for someone going through several cards quickly before racing starts (like me, for example) and let them know a horse might be longer than you would think looking at his sheet-- if you are handicapping an upcoming race, you can see the odds, so that doesn\'t matter. The marks are in no way an opinion whether the horse is a good bet at any price-- just that an individual performance may be better than it looks to the public, in figure terms.

On your other point, you may be confusing me with a temporarily banned poster here. I don\'t believe in this figure-being-a-result-of-the-way-the-race-was-run stuff. When the final time for a race is affected by a slow pace, we mark it as such, but that\'s it. The figures are what they are, and the handicapping is up to you.

What TimeForm does, by the way, is not exactly as stated here. Maybe George can explain that one in detail.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jerry,

Thanks for the response. I don\'t use the analysis but have looked at it from time to time via the redboard. We all know that there are times certain horses benefit (forget figure) in a race at the expense of what  other horses do in a \"given\" race. I\'m thinking the wind discussion and drafting discussion sort of bears this out as well.

I can live with the figure is the figure. I am certainly getting better and better at predicting bounces and move up\'s as well. It\'s contingent on the data being accurate. I know you try like hell to make it so. I\'m a big fan of the product.

As a handicapper, we also have to know (whatever the product we are using) it\'s strenghts and weaknesses so as to increase our ROI. There are times when strange and unusual anomalies occur and this can certainly skew the data. When that happens, that is when I hope that information is somehow shared with us. Usually we get this information via the board. I just have to rely on my memory when I\'m at the track with the sheets is where I\'m going with this.

NC Tony

[Silver Charm]

There really are two different types of buried races, and perhaps one more significant than others.

The first is the typical buried race where a specifc runner was extremely wide, compromised by the trip, and got much slower figure on OTHER figure making methodologies than he really should have.

The second is perhaps even more vital or important to a handicapper. This is the buried race similar to a key race. This is when the entire race because of chages in track conditions mid-day caused OTHER figure makers to assign a much slower figure to the race than what the race was really run in.

Two recent examples are the Adirondack at Saratoga this summer where both Folklore an Adieu received \"very slow\", regressing figures on both Ragozin and the Beyer Scale while TG had the figure, as it turned out properly calculated.

Both horses continued to pay generous prices in their remaining races and the Spinaway actually ran one-two at about 8-1 apiece.

The other example was Smarty Jones in the Rebel where he received a Neg 3 on TG but only a 101 or so on Beyer. Smarty still paid quite well in the Ark Derby and Ky Derby.