Aventura and Count Fleet

[JEB]

Have to say that i like the way that these two races look on the sheets.

They seem to be wide open to me.

AVENTURA
1) CORINTHIAN: Best Route Figure, 7 weeks off, J Jerkens continue to improve them 3rd out, impeccable breeding (pulpit out of an easy goer mare). I like at a price. FUTURE DERBY CONTENDER?

2) SAINT DAIMON: Best figure in the race, 8 week layoff, no reason to think that he will not get a mile, lakeman 24% for A Jerkens

3) MY GOLDEN SONG: Lightly raced, Pletcher hot last 90 days as always, expect this one to improve some on the route and the rail

For the exotics, i will add in Big Lover(The CRC horse) and Big Cliff on the back-end looking for a big hit

COUNT FLEET (not nearly as much quality as the race above)
1) WAZOO CITY: Best Route Figure, Like route breeding more then 2nd choice, 1st-time Contessa not a negative (although not a positive either), good with Arroyo up.

2) TRAILING TWELVE: 2nd best route figure, not crazy about 5-Star Days in routes, has the rail which will help in this 10-horse field

3)  FAGAN\"S LEGACY: like the forward moving pattern and past success in a 75k stakes route, gives weight to top two, mile-70 may be too short for this one.

any other thoughts?

John B

 

[Kasept]

John..

Tread lightly on Wazoo... He was also in my early mix till a friend mentioned that there might be a very good reason that Breen is 1 for 21 in New York since crossing over from Jersey.

[toppled]

I like Itsallaboutthechase in the Aventura,  The #s are similar to Corinthian\'s last 2, they even ran on the same day.  I give the edge to Its because I think he beat a stronger field at CD.  Check out the final time of his race, it was faster than Private Vow took the KYJC with the same day.  I like Its over and under Corinthian & Big Lover in the exacta.  

[shanahan]

I\'m gonna play several in the pik 3 since I think the races surrounding it are not tough ones...but my key is St. Daimon - for a young horse to win coming inside is interesting & in my thinking is \"the will to win\"...he\'s done it twice easily - once running away from corinthian.  Price will be OK as the jock will be overlooked (even on jenkins horse) by those in sunny isles...

[richiebee]

In the Count Fleet, I will take a stab with Two Deals Pending, 8/1 ML

TDP has broken slowly in his 2nd and 3rd most previous starts before getting a \"dwelt start\" comment in his last race, so things are not getting better at the start for him. Although he has not worked from the gate since his last start, you would hope that trainer Ryerson has schooled him extensively to try to overcome his ridgeling\'s \"hesitation blues\".

Speaking of Ryerson, he has had some success with young horses in the past (Unbridled\'s Song, and more recently, Park Avenue Ball).

Although City Zip himself was a sprinter, and will probably be known as a sire of sprinters, CZ is a half brother to Ghostzapper. While CZ\'s TGI of 21 at distances over a mile is not inspiring, 5 of 25 of his offspring who have gone a mile or over have won.

In trying to get a price on this late runner, I will go against two handicapping credos I usually embrace...betting on an apprentice who will not get the benefit of his weight allowance and betting on a NW2 against multiple winners. As such, I require odds of 6/1 or above.

[JEB]

well, it looks like there are a lot of varying opinions which makes for good betting races. Good Luck to all!

John B

[johndrj]

i don\'t think corinthian is as fast as some in here.

dixie swinger ran a huge race first out,  dutrow isn\'t a fool, if he didn\'t think a mile was in his scope, he wouldn\'t be in here.