asshandicapper

[bobphilo]

King,
Of course the horse with \"the proper path and seasoning\" has an advantage in the Derby. The problem is you are assuming what you are trying to prove in your argument, that proper seasoning consists of a 3 prep minimum with proper evidence. For there to be a correlation, as you claim the link must not be caused by chance. If the ovewhelming numbber of contenders in a race have a certain trait, then that trait will win a vast majotity of the times by shear weight of more chances to win. That\'s chance and not true correlation. One of the most poweful angle in racing 3rd race of the lay-off. To play against this angle is just asking to lose.
If you want to compare 2 prep with 3+ prep horses you have to take into account the much greater number of chances the 3+ prep horses have had to win. When done properly the studies show these over-prepped horses do no better than those(which every study shows are optimally prepped) percentage-wise. You have go beyond the raw numbers.

Bob

[bobphilo]

By the way, King, I forgot to mention that your remarks about workouts displaying readiness are right on the money. Just before the Derby Giacomo worked 6 F in 1:11 and change. Before the Belmont he worked 6 F at the same track in 1:14 and change. That tells you something. Even if you go back in history, Secretariat signaled he was off before the few races he lost by poor (slower than usual) works.

Bob

[P-Dub]

Bob,
You make a valid point, there are many more horses with the 3+ prep angle.........but how many of them were hopelessy overmatched to begin with??  They could have had 2 preps and performed the same way. I think we are getting too carried away with this whole discussion. We are trying to quantify something that may not be possible.  3 preps, 2 preps, whatever. There are many factors that go into whether or not a horse will run well on Derby Day, and Frost mentioned another one that has merit.

[bobphilo]

P-Dub,

That\'s pretty much my point. There is simply not enough evidence to throw out or downgrade a live Derby contender just becuse he has 2 vs. 3 preps. Especially since he\'s showing a hot angle. I really don\'t know where this prep race controversy began. Maybe because the way the Derby is run, people are often disappointed in their choices. Maybe some think that turning around the principles of handicapping is a way of dealing with this. I think the Derby is more often decided by luck than how many preps a horse has.

Bob