Dear Congaree1,
While I freely admit that I could benefit from smartening up (I am obviously already \"smarting\" as you put it), I do not think my play on AOT is an example of where I need to improve my game.
I am a very serious sheetplayer and usually am looking for ways to beat heavy chalk. When TGJB invited me to do the ROTW for the General George last year, I very strongly picked an 8-1 ML horse and advocated throwing out the horse that ended up being the favorite (and winner). Of course, I did not cash anything, but that is besides the point (I suspect Unforgettable Max did put forth a much better effort that his finish demonstrated). If you search my prior posts on this website, you will see my style of play and sheet analysis. I am not what you would call a heavy chalk player. I have to be honest, the innuendo in your message that I am somehow unaware of how to play this game is insulting. TGJB invited me to do a ROTW analysis because he was impressed with my sophisticated comparative sheet analysis of Musique Toujours under Thorograph versus Ragozin. I like to believe that my ROTW analysis and posts on this site are a sign of erudition rather than idiocy, but who knows -- sadly it is a debatable point.
My view of the Gotham was very similar to the Thorograph ROTW analysis. I thought AOT was very likely to run a zero or better, plus I thought he was likely to get the best trip of anybody (I thought he would get to the rail and sit tight behind a strong pace around the first turn and that Dominguez would be able to pick a good spot to make a move later in the race). I thought there was a chance that KE might not fire for a number of reasons (more than are listed in the ROTW analysis), and I thought SNS might get a bad trip from the outside post. I thought there were a lot of horses (e.g. Like Now) who could get into the super and make a nice super payout. 3-2 on AOT was not terrible appetizing, but the superfecta presented what I thought was an interesting opportunity. By singling AOT in the top spot, I was shooting to win money which included all the money in the pool from people who put AOT in lesser positions (people tend to over play low price horses in lesser positions in big exotics like the super (or play boxes when a sophisticated key or wheel may make more sense) and that makes the prices, when the heavy favorite comes out on top, better than they should be normally). Also, while I was including KE and SNS, I was not keying them and there would be a lot of money out there if either or both of them ran out of the super. I played the super with AOT keyed in the first position and various combinations underneath including the horses that did run 1,2,and 3. Although my ticket was expensive, it would have paid significantly more than the 3-2 win bet if AOT had run first over Like Now and SNS and KE. Also, I had the chance at a really significant score if box cars like Like Now filled out the rest of the Super. In general, it was a play I have done a lot and have had success with. While my Sweet Catomine play was significantly more complex and diverse, the same type of reasoning went into it.
When confronted with a heavy favorite, in my view, there are only two ways for a race to be playable -- keying the favorite in first and trying to make some money against other played horses underneath or else throwing out the favorite entirely. I think that the crowd overbets heavy favorites in lesser positions and it is senseless to bet them to come in second or third. Of course, I prefer to throw out favorites entirely, but that is not always prudent (and I did not think would be prudent with AOT). Often these races can come up like passes, but I decided to take a chance on the Gotham which brings me to your main point.
I am very well aware of what gambling is and well aware that anytime I make a bet there are a host of reasons I might lose. I have written extensively about this. I do not curse fate becasue my horse had a bad break, a bad trip, or took a bad step. That happens all the time and that is why it is gambling. The point of my earlier message was that there have been posts suggesting that AOT should not have been entered in the Gotham and many people were aware of this (see e.g. John T Chance\'s post above). While I think it is fair for the horseplayer to bear all sorts of risks, I think it is important that everybody have equal information when they are evaluating what to do. What I think is unfair is if some of the people I am competing against are able to unfairly get information that I am denied access to.
So, I felt like a chump not because I lost playing heavy chalk but because many of the people I was betting against had better information than me before the race. I said I felt like a chump, not a nimrod.
SCM2
