Rating The Derby Prep Races & My Short List

[Dana666]

Looking at the Major Derby Prep Races: Here\'s how I would rate the strength of the preps.

San Felipe: A+  (The strongest of the preps)
Santa Anita Derby: B (Very solid, though small field)
Wood: B (I think this is a much better race than most think)
Arkansas Derby: C+/B- (large field, decent quality)
Blue Grass: C (much weaker than the Beyer would indicate)
Fla Derby: C+ (Ok, but not great)
Santa Catalina: C+ (Ok)
Illinois Derby: C (I don\'t think too much of this race)

My List of Contenders (in order):
1.AP Warrior: Still must improve, though there\'s real potential and much value here. (Best Value)
2.Bob and John: Rapidly improving, and he will run a new top in the Derby -- he just LOOKS like a Derby Winner to me. (Most Likely to Succeed)
3. Point Determined: Also improving and will run a new top -- really hard to fault. (Best not to ignore)
4. Brother Derek: Complete class, though you\'ve seen what he\'s got -- he may pair up, but he won\'t go forward any more. He was mature in March. And has maintained his form -- I\'ll probably take a betting stand against him. He is the best of the the three year olds so far, no question (His derby odds may not justify his chance for me).
5. Lawyer Ron: Similar Story, made a huge improvement early in the winter and has maintained. I always liked him, but I just have a feeling he\'s not quite as good as some of the others though he\'s an iron horse and a throwback!
6. Jazil: I do like is Wood race, he looks like he\'ll handle the distance, but I\'m thinking a  minor award would be his limit.

Horses (who will take some action) I don\'t like much at all are Barbaro (a big clunky brute, not handy or fluid enough for me), BlueGrass Cat (never sure what all the fuss was about), Cause To Believe (a decent sort, but just not good enough), Sweetnorthernsaint (can\'t fault in any logical way, I just don\'t think he\'s this good.  Sinster Minister (I wouldn\'t bet a dime on him in the derby- he might be a good bet to finish last though with his rank running style).

Ok That\'s it. I can handicap the race for three weeks and I won\'t be any clearer. Good Luck and God Bless to all.

[RICH]

Dana  

Couldn\'t have said it better, especially first 2 choices, looking foward to the numbers.

Rich

[Dana666]

Yes, I too would love to see the numbers!

[jbelfior]

Any fear that POINT DETERMINED has done to much too soon and may be primed for a bounce?


Otherwise, I agree that California is the SEC of this tournament.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Dana666]

Good Point! No pun intended.

That\'s always a consideration; I mean it\'s very hard to win the Derby when your debut race was December 26th -- has anyone ever done that? I don\'t even know.

That being said, I think he\'s developed nicely and looks to keep the forward trend, his breeding and running style are perfect as well.The SA Derby is a great set up too. I liked his effort there very much.

I see him as a strong factor for exactas, tri\'s and supers at the very least. A Baffert exacta is not out of the question. Someone in an earlier post mentioned Bafert might be this year\'s Zito of 2005. Not likely, Baffert 2006 looks more like a DW Lukas year when he was loaded back in the day. That man does know how to pick horses, or whoever advises him. His owners focus their incredible resources and point to this campaign every year. This year it looks good for them.

[Uncle Buck]

Dana 666 - Your list makes me laugh because it reminds me of exactly how I handicap. You have the two horses who ALWAYS have finished ahead and are faster than the others in 4th and 5th position. That\'s the way I do things too. I am constantly looking for the jump up factor or the \"what if\" factor.

My friends accuse me of constantly looking for something that isn\'t there...

It sure will be an interesting Derby but if Sweetnorthernsaint goes off anywhere near 8-1 he is my stone, single key horse in all exotics. Wheeling him top, bottom and elsewhere...If, that is, I still have some money in my pocket after betting the undercard...LOL

[Lance]

\"That\'s always a consideration; I mean it\'s very hard to win the Derby when your debut race was December 26th -- has anyone ever done that? I don\'t even know.

FuPeg made his debut in mid December. Atswhatimtalknbout ran for the first time in early January, squeezed in five races, then ran great in the Derby and may have won with a clean trip.

Point Determined is not only standing up to Baffert\'s regimen, he\'s thriving. I give him a big shot, and I know Bobby B. does too.

[Silver Charm]

>Not likely, Baffert 2006 looks more like a DW Lukas year when he was loaded >back in the day. That man does know how to pick horses, or whoever advises him. >His owners focus their incredible resources and point to this campaign every >year. This year it looks good for them.

Aaaaaaaah the good ole days. Wasn\'t it the Little River Band that sang \"Reminiscing\". Wayne out west, Jeff in the East. Don\'t underestimate the Power of the Dark Side.

For these guys (Baffert, Lukas, Zito) it is what the owners want however it does take a toll on the stock. Something several writers have finally begun to catch on to. That this wasn\'t just the work of a mad scientist (Lukas).

Baffert has certainly seasoned himself. Both personally and professionally. He used to work his horses every 6 days, now it is more like 9. If he goes back to 6 leading up to the Derby you know he is seriously winding them up. If he remains around 9 then he isn\'t trying to change the routine.

[davidrex]

what a GREAT post!!
Your putting a value on the preps is right on.As matter of fact its safer to judge the competition and track biases in coming up w/something other than chalk.
Replays are an absolute essential...otherwise the \"visually denied\",are just spinning their wheels.
The improving horse doesn\'t have to win in order to cash a ticket,just pass the tiring imposters.

[JJP]

The one race rating I\'d disagree on is the Wood.  The Wood was probably weaker than the Gotham.  Considering how the Wood was run (fast early, crawl late), the horse that did the most running was Keyed Entry, who was the runnerup in the Gotham.  The 3rd place horse in the Gotham (and arguably the best) was Sweetnorthernsaint, who passed on the Wood for the Illinois Derby.  Throw in Achilles of Troy, who was a close 4th in the Gotham and was injured and didn\'t run in the Wood.  So you add Jazil, who basically picked up the pieces to pass tired horses, and Bob & John, a decent, but not top level SoCal horse.  Yes, the Gotham, the supposed prep, was tougher than the Wood.

[bellsbendboy]

Not sure we are on the same page \'Charm. If Baffert goes over seven days without working a horse, they have broken down.

Sinister Minister 3/23 3/30 4/4/ 4/9
Point Determined  3/5 3/10 3/15 (San Felipe 3/18) 3/27 4/2
Bob n John        same as Point  (wood)      same

JB makes a great point in that over the last ten or so derby\'s only seven horses have run a new top and five of them were trained by Baffert. bbb

[Dana666]

You\'re right. I didn\'t rank the Gotham. Obviously,it was an important race.  It was under my radar (probably, my inherent West Coast Bias!). I\'ll have to go back and check that race out closely. Thanks.

[richiebee]

dana:

Really? You have a west coast bias? Couldn\'t tell from your selections!

Reminds me of the time a friend of mine (who happens to be African American) asked me what my all time NBA team would be.

Without hesitation I told him: Jerry West, Pete Maravich, Bill Walton, Larry Bird and Billy Cunningham.

[Michael D.]

rich,

cunningham over cousy? ouch.

a russell & jordon combo could beat your team 2 ag 5.

[richiebee]

Michael:

   You are showing your age; I was too young to appreciate Cousy.

   Besides, Billy C is a Brooklyn boy, having attended Erasmus, which also produced the rugged power forward B. Streisand and elusive point guard N. Diamond, among others.