michael d.

[superfreakicus]

please post your thoughts on cd r5 6/15.

[Michael D.]

I used favorites in the early races in large pk3 bets. That fifth race actually cost me quite a bit of money. I don\'t remember the exact details, but I think I pegged the favorite running in the 11 range, a few points faster than the rest. As it turned out, he was the fastest, but Perret did everything in his power to lose the race. I usually judge the jockey angle well, but I made two major errors on that card; singling a horse that Perret was on, and not realizing there was a very good chance that Bailey would kick Day\'s ass in the 3 yr old race. When Bailey rides on these big days, and the three other greats (Mccarron, Stevens, and JR) are not there to challenge him, it usually turns into a one man show. (I don\'t think here was much he could do against Spain, Lucas had her so wound up she was not going to lose that race to anybody)

[superfreakicus]

the reason I ask, is that I think that was the race where the 6yo first time starter won(?).

I also thought the chalk was fastest, but pegged him to react a couple points, leaving him w/i reach of a couple others because of anticipated trips and weight.
I used him w/kessinger\'s horse, who I thought could move up a couple points + save ground, and the 3 (muy bien chris), who was a big price.

so, this 6 yo first timer is a well deserved 30-1 ml, and he\'s suddenly 8-1 early.
no particular turf breeding, no flashy works, no supertrainer, no nothing but some owner \'in the know\', maybe.
well, 8-1 was horrible on a rat that should\'ve been 60-1, so I bet the horses *I* like, and go get some meatloaf and mashed potatoes.
next thing I know, that little snake drifts back up to 36-1 and torpedoes my tickets!

somebody cashed nice on that race.

[Michael D.]

was that that f.....g Double Negative horse??
I saw the exact same thing. I put question marks next to two horses (he being one of them), and even wrote down \"watch the board\" next to his name. Then I saw him at 10-1 early, and knew there had to be a least a few inside shekels on him, but still ignored it. A very tough beat indeed, especially since I never noticed the odds drift from 10-1 up to 30-1 (I think it was even higher).

[tonyk]

I won\'t bet a horse like that either.What a rat race that was ,I used Muy Bien Chris as well ( tried to take a stand against the fave with the post position ) races like this really get me down ,and make me question if it\'s all worth it .

[superfreakicus]

ah, don\'t let it bother you.

there are always plenty more chances every day, day after day.
win or lose, you know you\'ll be back for more.

[Michael D.]

Well, there were a few first time starters in the race. I think the other two who had a bit of turf breeding opening up at 35-1, and the six year old Double Negative gelding opened at 8-1. I don\'t see how a horse racing fan could have had the horse, but a good gambler should have taken notice and expanded their pk3 tickets by $10 or $20. I guess you learn something new every day.