"Overlay at 1-9"

[TGJB]

Check out Friedman\'s post giving out a Father\'s Day play at Monmouth, and the result of the race.

On the batch/rebate stuff, more tomorrow when I have time. But for starters, getting a rebate does not directly affect the results of anyone not getting one (meaning it does not come from the other players), and batch betting software can\'t help anyone whose handicapping (as opposed to betting strategy) would not be good enough to show a profit without it-- as certain individuals who used to post here found out, I believe.

[congaree1]

Cool, kinda like the race of the week analysis, one horse hit the board.

[marcus]

i can\'t recall , did they bring the mountain to mohammed or did he go to it ? can len come on to the TG site and tell us exactly what he thought happend ?

[TGJB]

Cong-- not exactly, but that\'s okay. We said to play AGAINST the two favorites, both of whom ran out, not ON a 2/5 shot (who would be \"an overlay at 1-9\"), that got beat 15 lengths. Granted, we did not like the 91-1 shot, but you know what? If we had, he wouldn\'t have paid $185.

[congaree1]

Whatever!!

[bellsbendboy]

Personally, I thought the analysis here at TG, for the Foster was very good. The authors\' intent was to describe a race with more questions than answers. I wish whoever it was; did all the ROTW analysis.

The Foster was a TOTAL meltdown, that few predicted. The final fraction (1/8) was a very slow 13:21.  How slow was it?

Other final eighths: Stake 12.98,  Maiden 13:43, Maiden 12:30, nw3L (f) 12.89
       
      final sixteenths:  Stake 6.47,  nw2L 6.27 starter allowance 10K 6.78

The rail was quicksand, after \"conditioning\" earlier in the day.

Since I am on a roll, I predict, the fifth race winner ran the faster TG figure EVER for a maiden, at a mile or over.

And as far as rebates \"taxing\" me, a smaller player, all it does is redirect me from the pick 6 to the pick 4.  I can \'cap with them but they out capital me. I say let them play, if its good for the tracks, its good for the game! BBB

[NoCarolinaTony]

BBB

I agree with you...Good point about the rebate big boys...Every now and then we can get their money too

NC Tony

[colin]

for a veteran horseplayer like myself, I find it hard to beleive any of us can be critical of Len Friedman\'s handicapping. The guy is great. I use Thorograph because I like the numbers better but every time Len or Jerry take time out to go over a race for free it adds value to all of their customers. We all call races completely wrong from time to time. Let\'s try to keep that in mind. Happy Hunting E

[asfufh]

BBB wrote \"\"And as far as rebates \"taxing\" me, a smaller player, all it does is redirect me from the pick 6 to the pick 4. I can \'cap with them but they out capital me. I say let them play, if its good for the tracks, its good for the game! BBB\"\"\'

There is no problem with rebates per se. Casinos give comps to their loyal and bigger players all the time and good luck to them. In fact, the tracks ought to be giving the rebates directly to the players not the off track sites.
In horse racing, the problem is when rebates are combined with unfair advantages like electronic access to tote pools that enable players using CRW to squeeze out a overall profit percentage (that can add up the substantial amounts over time) by using the real time info in the track\'s pools to compute their wagers and then fire off almost instantaneous bets directly into the track\'s pool just before the pool closes (i.e. know the \"final\" odds just before they bet).
As I mentioned in an other post, if you play Texas Hold\'em, CRW is akin to having the \"button\" (being the dealer) for *every* hand instead of the normal rotation of the \"button\" to each player. The dealer has a recognized substantial advantage (i.e. late position) because he is the last to bet in every betting round in a given hand (i.e. he knows what all other players have done when it is his/her turn to bet). The same advantage exists in CRW and the track\'s should do something to fix it.
Asfufh


 
Asfufh

[diamond-joe]

  Could you post this race so we could see how the favorite looked?

      Thank you.

[TGAB]

Here it is. The favorite was the most likely winner, but not \"an overlay at 1-9\", since he was spotting serious weight. This is aside from the issue of giving out horses where all we know is what the public knows, at very short prices.

[diamond-joe]

   Damn! That horse was fast!!

[tmon]

I assume there is some reason this horse wasn\'t claimed off of Dutrow for $50,000 earlier this year?

[diamond-joe]

   Some people really hate to claim fast horses, because if they run away they are very hard to catch.

[diamond-joe]

   Looks like 6 of his last 12 races were 0 or better. How often has anyone seen a horse like this?