ROTW?

[NoCarolinaTony]

Alan,

Very Good Analysis. I am so happy to see something like this vis a vis Rebates, volume betting etc... I\'ve been sitting at home thinking this race through as well. I really Like the Wolfson Horse. I also think Showing Up will run a very credible race. Post position will help today. But I also tend to agree he will run better on Grass 2nd time out. I saw his race in Keeneland and it was impressive.

I agree the Dutrow horse will melt down the lane. I don\'t think Lewis Michael bounces today. And even if he does, I think if he runs anything like he did last he blows this field away. Catalano has this one ready. If you get anything at 15-1 ML . I think Im tempted to play this one together with the runners you mentioned. I think LM breeding screams turf. His last was to ogood to ingnore, and there is \"word on the street\". This is my only major difference from your analysis. I am playing a big exacta box Lewis Michael with Can\'t Beat it. i might play both to win if over 15-1.

What is really hard is decinding on how to play a super in this race. usually I can settle in in 6-8 horses in some logical order. This race is so wide open. A super may pay boxcars (provided the money is in the pool)

NC Tony

[TGAB]

Why won\'t Lewis Michael bounce? That last was a big effort. Catalano is certainly a capable trainer. Now he could bounce and win but as I said I just have problems betting horses who are going south. Of course I\'ve tossed horses many a time for this reason and they end up getting a piece ruining whatever bet I\'m holding. I\'m more inclined to use Showing Up than Lewis Michael. Showing Up is solid and he does get the rail.

Years ago, pre-sheets for me, Tagg was based down in Maryland. He gained a reputation as a turf trainer and often sent up shippers that beat up on the NY runners. Of course then, nobody had any data to back up or support word-of-mouth  reputations, unless one clipped DRF charts, newspaper charts or rifled through microfilm. Times have changed.      

[spa]

WoW!!!!!!!

[marcus]

allen - well done , kudos and excellent call on the rotw , i\'m hoping the suface switch to grass help\'s minimalize lewis micheal\'s bounce a little - that kind of price sure is tempting  + can\'t beat it either ... you nailed it buddy -mazeltov  !

[spa]

Nothing fancy,just the numbers........Lewis Michael to win and key the super with TG\'s picks in a box.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Alan,

Nice Call (as usual- Senza Aglio comes to mind again). Once Lewis Michael opened up at 8-5 that completely changed my logic. Was hoping for 10-1 or better, but was not in agreement with the ML anyway. I decided to use the Dutrow horse (fastest on turf in race up till this point)  on the outside with speed to hang on for a piece. Had the exacta but all that did was cover the bet. Was disappointed in the Wolfson horse. and Naturally the Pletcher runner gets a piece and ruins my super.

Well done ROTW. Best one in terms of rationale and reasoning in quite some time.

The problem with taking a position before a race is that the way a race is bet usually determines the way I\'ll play the race. I am never absolute on any bet before the race. I always look for value. That\'s why it\'s so hard to take a position 12 hours before a race and make it Gospel.

NC Tony