Radical change in track @BEL on Dwyer Day

[ezgoer89]

Did you guys have as radical a change in track conditions as Beyer folks?

From DRF.com:

Strong Contender moved to the head of the Ward/Oxley class with an authoritative 7 3/4-length victory in Tuesday\'s Grade 2, $150,000 Dwyer Stakes. While the time of 1:45.24 was the slowest of 13 Dwyers run at 1 1/16 miles, the performance earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 109.

Mark Hopkins, who makes the Beyer numbers for Belmont, said the track got significantly slower as the day went on. Hopkins said he had to adjust his figures by 32 Beyer points for the last three dirt races.

\"It was one of the most dramatic changes I\'ve ever seen at Belmont,\" said Hopkins, who has made New York figures for 30 years. \"And Belmont has dramatic changes.\"

[RICH]

The dwyer went in 145.24. A couple races earlier allow state bred filles ran 141.84. Allowance horses ran 5 1/2 fur in 107.11, earlier msw run 104.93. What would explain such drastic changes in less than 2 hrs?

[miff]

The Beyer 109 translates to a TG fig of app -3(neg 3) which seems a little too fast, although there is no doubt that SC ran his lifetime top by quite a bit.

They were expecting rain and the track was slow all day.Just prior to the Dwyer there was a cloud burst which normally would speed up Belmont but it did not look like it to me.In fairness, it was a weird day and only the Pletcher maidens 2nd and 5th ran kinda fast, broadly speaking.The track did get slower as the day went on. Don\'t know the posted cushion for the day but it was a heavy/cuppy track.Only one route race and only Doc Cheney running close to his norm, tough call.


This is a poster day for comparing the figs of TG, Rags and Beyer. Your hair will hurt.


Mike

[Michael D.]

SC came up the rail at 115 lbs in a one turn race. if he goes three wide under 120 lbs, it\'s a 102 beyer. if he runs this fast in one of the summer stakes carrying 125 and runs 2w/3w, you\'re looking at a 97.

he\'s going to have to pick it up to win a big one, even if the 109 beyer is correct.

[JohnTChance]

I\'m miffed that miff wrote: \"The Beyer 109 translates to a TG fig of app -3...\"

Beyers DON\'T \"TRANSLATE\" INTO THOROGRAPH FIGURES! Not roughly. Not sorta-kinda. Not in any way outside of the planet Mars.

[miff]

John T Chance,

Like most of your posts, you are clueless. There is a conversion Beyer to TG that is consistently correct about 90% of the time.Of course weight and ground must be adjusted.I guess you have never read Jerry post \"Andy and I agree\"


Mike

[RICH]

Miff

With all due respect, Bob P brought up that coversion rate back in March. I checked it out. IMO, it did not hold up. Yeah, maybe some ballpark figures, however, the way I play the 1/4-1 pt differences mean alot.

[miff]

Rich,

You are correct in that the exactness is not always there and Bobs take was pretty good.I use something of a hybrid of that. I\'m using TG forever and I can\'t imagine beating the game by constantly considering 1/4 to 1point differences,but to each his own.

There is a simple reason for that Rich, any honest fig maker will tell you that the numbers are their absolute best effort but surely not always indisputable to the 1/4-1 point.There are a fair number of days that the figures are very tough to do.

With respect and honesty,I must admit that hearing the Raggies talk about \"quarter point condition moves\" usually makes my day at the track.A horse showing improvement of about 24 inches portends a reliable future performance.I wonder what the ROI is on \"1/4 point condition moves\"

Mike

[bobphilo]

Rich,
You are correct, the relationship between the Beyers and TG that was present at the time of my study has altered somewhat.

Just to clear matters up. As I explained at the time, the conversion formula I posted a few months ago, at the request of some of the posters, was a preliminary study based on a relatively small sample over a period of time when TG figures seemed to be running significantly better than the Beyers. You will recall Jerry was thinking of adding 5 points to the TG figures because of the plethora of negatives that were coming up. Apparently that relationship, though accurate for that time period, was a temporary aberration.

Using this preliminary formula now, as you have pointed out, would convert Beyers to TG figures that are a point or two too fast.
 
I did include a caveat that these were preliminary findings and one should not use them for betting purposes. In any case, I apologize to anyone who used this formula recently and noted the inaccuracy.  
I contacted miff when I thought that he might still be using it and found out that he was already using another conversion of his own.

Bob

[flushedstraight]

Mike

Is your 90% accuracy stat for both dirt & turf? If so, any significant difference between the two? Have you tested the conversion on Poly? (perhaps less variance?)

thanks

[RICH]

Miff

I am curious on how you and others deal with the 1/4 - 1 pt moves? Lets say a 3 year old colt runs as a 2 yr old (1st to last) a 12,12,14,10 then as a 3yr old a first time out 9 1/2. Wouldn\'t you be all over that? As opposed to if he ran an 10 1/2 or is it the same to you guys?

[miff]

Flush,

Just dirt races in New York and a few main circuits.I\'ve felt for some time that the TG turf figs are consistently the best performance data I have looked at.I never question them.

Re Poly, I would not have confidence in those figs yet and I believe that the fig guys would privately admit that they may not be totally comfortable yet either.The figs may be ok but how the horses react on or off Poly is very tough to figure. I am told by people who are studying poly performances that it\'s a handicapping nightmare.

Re the 90% Beyer-TG comparison,the most interesting thing is the 10% where differences of up to 5-7 lengths can exist(after adjustment). How can that be with everyone using projection? In researching the big differences I am certain that someone is getting it wrong but it\'s not clear. Some things are coming into better focus though.

You made a point the other day(stole my thunder) about the 23 point difference between TG and Beyer re Da Stoops.That should never happen. I\'m just waiting for the Rag figs for Da Stoops to see what happened but So Cal is the place where the big three disagree more than any other circuit.That race had only 5 runners and I think that may have presented a problem for the fig guys too.

Mike

[miff]

Rich,

I like the the pattern either way. I think that 9 and 1/2 is better but spacing, race set up and a few other things matter to me equally.We probably have different interpretations. I like the first out 3yr old \"top match\" or slight improvement.In most other cases(say established older runners), I\'m not too excited about a 1/2 point move but I\'m always looking for subtle signs of improvement when evaluating todays chances for a runner.

I thought you were saying that you \"measure\" down to a 1/4 point when generally making all plays. Thats something I could never be successful at quite frankly.

Mike

[RICH]

Your right, I generally like small move fowards on young, developing horses 2-4 yrs old as opposed to the older horses. Thanks and Good luck.

[TGJB]

\"Now,I know that this (meaning the track changing speed in the middle of the card) has NEVER happened except as the result of a rain shower or a sudden freeze\".  --- Len Ragozin, \"The Odds Must Be Crazy\", page 35, parenthetical mine, emphasis his. The man said NEVER, and that means NEVER. Right?

And, two pages later, \"... all the figures must use the same variant unless rain or freeze or a thaw changes things\". The man said ALL. Can\'t you guys read?

The only rain on 7/4 at Belmont fell before the ninth, and it was 86 degrees at first post, so I\'m guessing there was no freeze or thaw. Therefore, the track MUST have stayed the same speed. Ragozin said so, in his book. As Richard Pryor almost said, who you gonna trust, Ragozin or your lyin\' eyes?

Yeah, that day was a mess. I would love to see what Len did with it.