BC Classic Preview

[Upper Nile]

Ill-Bred. Shh, Keep it under your hat.  You\'ll spoil the odds.  I can\'t wait to see DJs\' TG sheet. Even before seing David Juniors TG sheet he\'s a must use for me on top and underneath all I do in the classic. Shiping Dylan Thomas here for a prep strikes me as an unorthodox move and a bit of a stab to see just what they have.  O\'Brien\'s comments quoted in the Bloodhorse have backed that up.

[Uncle Buck]

To my eye the issue with Lava Man will be the
> pace. If the pace is too hot it will impact him as
> well. If he runs in the B.C. Classic his success
> will depend upon the early presssure but with
> Bernardini in there as well as another legitimate
> pace horse or two I\'ll probably be looking to beat
> them both. If you\'re talking a head to head
> matchup without necessarily winning, yes I favor
> Lava Man. Bernardini\'s big 3YO figures don\'t
> impress me very much.
>

I\'m not at all worried about Nakatani getting caught in a suicidal pace scenario. He\'s ridden this horse with nothin\' but confidence and he\'s a smart enough veteran, even in a 4 million dollar race, to remain calm and cool. I can see him taking back a length or two off a .45 or low .46 second half in the classic. The intruidging part of the Bernardini/LM matchup is they\'re both tactical. It just so happens in their last three respective races they\'ve taken it to the weaker competition and played the \"catch me\" role

[jbelfior]

The Bernardini-Lava Man matchup may end up being like the Medaglia D\'Oro-Congaree or Medaglia D\'Oro-War Emblem BC Classic matchups which led to an unusually fast pace and unexpected results.



Interesting pattern with STRONG CONTENDER. Obviously needs time after his big efforts. Needed 4 months to run his new top (a whopper neg 3 at Belmont in the Dwyer) after his 2006 debut at Gulfstream. Interesting to note the amount of time betwen that and the BC Classic is 4 months. Looking for him to run at or about a 1 tomorrow which may get him beat while running a good race.

After that....well, we shall see.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[flushedstraight]

Amen to that Joe B.

Ward is talking up a storm (DRF Sat) about how he\'s developed more just recently and is even stronger now. I\'m as skeptical as anyone when it comes to some of these silver-tongued trainers but that Dwyer # don\'t lie.

At 50-1 (Pinnacle) there are no second thoughts for this TG user

  101 Bernardini +194
  102 Lava Man +507
  103 Invasor +610
  104 Shirocco +1212
  105 David Junior +1552
  106 Sun King +2420
  107 Lawyer Ron +2641
  108 Dylan Thomas +1670
  110 Perfect Drift +3775
  111 Giacomo +4361
  112 Suave +5000
  113 Second Of June +2532
  114 Point Determined +5000
  115 Brother Derek +3817
  116 Super Frolic +5000
  117 Strong Contender +5000
  118 Bright One +3881
  119 Flower Alley +5000

[Michael D.]

flush,

beware, ward told everyone he wasn\'t afraid of bernardini up at the spa.

bernie could have lapped ward\'s two colts if he needed to.


i need to see a fast two turn race out of SC.

50-1 though. have to take it if you like him.


50-1 on super frolic probably looks ok to some out there.

[flushedstraight]

D,

I caught that pre-Travers interview with Ward (on AM Saratoga?) shooting off that nonsense... I\'m no fan of the guy. Then again, he was talking big before the Dwyer and I pooh-poohed it and ended up with Da Shtups, wasting a great Todd toss. And among others, there was Whitney day in 02 when it seemed everyone around me at Toga knew about Sky Mesa before he toyed with foes in his debut. The thing about SC is Ward saying he has matured recently is different than not giving bernie the proper respect.

Bottom line... the price. Someone knocked him down today to 24-1. I imagine you\'re looking at double digit odds post time at CD no matter what he does in the La Derby, which incidentally was on the same road of the last bc classic winner at CD, and clearly he wont have a start in between like Tizthen.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

don\'t ask me the reasons why I believe it so, but i truly believe that Lava Man at this stage of his career is more \"tractable\" than Bernardini. I will say the latter is an A.p. Indy and those have for the most part developed into headstrong speed on the lead types. I don\'t think Bernardini is an exception and my read on him is that as he has matured hes become even more headstrong. I could be wrong, but I will bet that I\'m not. In my estimation, Bernardini will have to overcome mature speed to win with his prefered style. I don\'t think he will see the same conditions he\'s been facing. Check out his career past performances. How tractable has he been?

Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To my eye the issue with Lava Man will be the
> > pace. If the pace is too hot it will impact
> him as
> > well. If he runs in the B.C. Classic his
> success
> > will depend upon the early presssure but
> with
> > Bernardini in there as well as another
> legitimate
> > pace horse or two I\'ll probably be looking to
> beat
> > them both. If you\'re talking a head to head
> > matchup without necessarily winning, yes I
> favor
> > Lava Man. Bernardini\'s big 3YO figures don\'t
> > impress me very much.
> >
>
> I\'m not at all worried about Nakatani getting
> caught in a suicidal pace scenario. He\'s ridden
> this horse with nothin\' but confidence and he\'s a
> smart enough veteran, even in a 4 million dollar
> race, to remain calm and cool. I can see him
> taking back a length or two off a .45 or low .46
> second half in the classic. The intruidging part
> of the Bernardini/LM matchup is they\'re both
> tactical. It just so happens in their last three
> respective races they\'ve taken it to the weaker
> competition and played the \"catch me\" role
>

[richiebee]

Enjoyed the BC Classic thread, especially the information with regards to them Euros.

Aidan OBrien has tried BC Dirt races in the past with limited success. I just do not understand why he doesnt send a string over in September, maybe to a Fair Hill type situation where he can train Euro style, get a race in on a dirt strip (ok, or a synthetic surface), get his horse on a lasix regimen, etc.

I think one of my first posts on this board may have concerned running the Breeder\'s Cup series in Europe every few years. Yes, I know from the lasix problem and the time difference. I also think it would give us the opportunity to experience a great handicapping challenge.

If you really think outside the box, imagine an event staged on two continents on the same day (dirt in NA, turf in Europe).

[shanahan]

that\'s a hell of an idea...on two continents.  Futuristic thinking for sure.  Sort of an upscale Turfway/KY Downs type thing I guess...

[davidrex]

Richee...It could be the next Ryder Cup Challenge.
The world as a hole would love to se the U.S. get beat in a fair game for ALL(drugs alowed).
And we can show everyone that we are also capable of losing graciously.
Of course the European contigent would visit our soil at a later time in the season for a good old fashioned American Rumble!!!

[Michael D.]

who\'s going to wilt like a flower?

2:01, four wide, 122 lbs, JOGGING ??

LM was tough though, and as Dana wrote, he doesn\'t get a lot of respect. he wasn\'t five jumps past the finish line before the ESPN crew started telling us that he can\'t win the BC.

still, i\'ll side strongly with Bernardini.

[richiebee]

On only brief review of the race, let me mention the following re: Giacomo-

1) Could improve greatly with a rider change

2) Seemed to be the only one running at the end other than the winner

3) Ran his career race at CD

[Michael D.]

we established in this string that dylan thomas was a turf horse, and you would need long odds to bet him against bernardini or invasor.

well, he went off at 4-1 in the JCGC. simply astounding.

now ...

http://bc.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=35717

george washington. hmmmmm.

first of all, you have to love a brit who names his horse george washington.

second, he is a bit more intriguing than dylan thomas.

you still have danehill on top, but you get a dam by alysheba.

not sure what to think.

still, i remain strongly in the camp of a flat bernie/invasor exacta.

btw, dylan jumps right to the top of my BC turf list.

[Michael D.]

ctc,

bernardini was never really headstrong.

he rated pretty well in the preakness.

he was nudged out of the gate in the jim dandy, and actually ridden out of the gate in the travers. he was so much the best, they just decided to get it done with early, and gallop late.

he showed his tractability well again on saturday.


btw, he will be ridden out of the gate in the BC (he will have to run late this time though).

[jbelfior]

I\'m assuming that BROTHER DEREK, with the 3w trip and all, ran at or around his top.

If so, I think his 3yo pattern screams for a break-out race in the Classic. Historically, California horses have run well at CD in the Breeders Cup which cannot be said about everywhere else, including Belmont Park.

If Hendricks decides to go, and BRO DEREK finally draws inside, I believe he\'s a major player in the Classic. In a year where we have seen some pretty nice 3yos and where the Handicap Division has been less than stellar, why not two 3yos battling down the CD stretch.



Good Luck,
Joe B.