ROTW

[davidrex]

                  OH BROTHER,WHERE ART THOU?

[Michael D.]

if he breaks free dave ...

even with a decent 2w/2w trip, he could be there.

have to go with the TG pick though. cohen saves some ground, and SF\'s negative \'1\' wins it.

[Dana666]

In which universe does Super Frolic beat Lava Man? Not this one! He\'s had his chances and can\'t get even get close to Lava Man on Lava Man\'s worst day (July 8th, for example).

The ROTW analysis sounds like a case of heart over mind, and I certainly understand that reasoning, believe me, but c\'mon guys -- numbers are one thing, but when Super Frolic actually looks any good horse in the eye, he runs the other way; today will be no exception. I mean he has been very well managed to earn that much money, but that selection seems a huge reach to me.

I\'d actually be looking for Brother Derek to run a huge one today; I\'d be excited to see him look Lava Man in the eye down the stretch, because when he\'s right he\'s a real brute, much like Lava Man; that being said, his huge race may still not be enough, though he gets 11 pounds if Solis can make that weight.

Lava Man is the most maligned great horse I\'ve seen in the last few years. I don\'t know wny people don\'t realize what a warrior he is -- in his races this year, granted he\'s beating up on inferior west coast foes, I admit, but he could have gone a lot faster. He\'s a pro he just does what he has to. I wish I could book bets on Super Frolic against Lava Man (though Brother Derek does scare me more than a little if he\'s on his \"A\" game)!

[marcus]

Which Universe ? I guess that depends on which side of the bed one got up on this morning  ...

Super Frolic is fast enough ( after Magnum\'s slop number and Lava Man , who is still reacting to his a top that he ran 5 races back  ) .

SF\'s back in form + looks like value in the ML + goes for Graph-Racing . Brother Derek\'s pattern really shows deterioration .

[spa]

Pass the Kool-aid, I believe Super Frolic will finish ahead of Lava Man......The TG numbers speak for themself, plus a better ride and weight......May I have more Kool-aid please???

[P-Dub]

Hopefully you added some alcohol to your kool-aid.  Dana\'s analysis was pretty good.

I absolutely agree about Lava Man. Another West Coast horse not getting any respect.  Looking forward to the Classic.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hopefully you added some alcohol to your kool-aid.
>  Dana\'s analysis was pretty good.
>
> I absolutely agree about Lava Man. Another West
> Coast horse not getting any respect.  Looking
> forward to the Classic.
>
> P-Dub


The only folks that have hindsight are those that make the decisions. That is, whether to bet on a horse, where to place a horse. That said, I think Super Frolic would have won the Hawthorne Gold Cup, even with the effort he turned in yesterday.

Bernardini did something I was beginning to doubt he could do. He rated and won in good time. How good is hard to ascertain with all the damnable turf racing breaking up the continuity for determining the dirt surface and the field itself being so substandard. But Wandering Boy wins when he gets it his way and he got it his way yesterday. The question is was it Wandering Boy\'s Sunday punch? You certainly can\'t tell on the also rans.  Bernardini is very good though and after the JCGC you have to be far less prone to take a major stand against him.

Very nice analysis Dana. I think you were right on. But I do believe Super Frolic is better suited to 10 poles on certain tracks. If hes sound for the B.C. he may reverse on Lava Man. His odds were far too low yesterday anyway.

[marcus]

nice call dana - i just didn\'t like the patterns of the winners in that race . ctc is saying now after the fact and the same as he said in previous posts about  and saturdays race and sf  , that distance may have not been optimal  
- what do you think about that ...
 

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> nice call dana - i just didn\'t like the patterns
> of the winners in that race . ctc is saying after
> the fact that distance may have not been optimal
> for sf - what do you think about that ...
>


I\'m not saying it \"after the fact\". I posted a week ago that I believed Super Frolic was better suited to 10 poles at Hawthorne than 9 poles at Santa Anita. The consideration involved more than the mere distance. The competition was significantly weaker at Hawthorne.

Hold on a moment and I\'ll grab the post:

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,31580,31580#msg-31580

If you note the charts Super Frolic was making some ground late. Their jockey selection leaves one scratching ones head again. You\'d have made a more stinging bite by taking me up on what I said about Bernardini last week. Still, I\'ll be taking a shot at him in the Classic.

[marcus]

ctc -  on this particular thread you ARE saying this \" after the fact \" .

sorry if you were offended  +  

a bounce by sf yesterday irregardless of the distance issue ( competition + jock aside ) is also another possibility .