Urban Legend, Urban Myth Take Your Pick

[Silver Charm]

Every year late spring there always seems to be the same old beat.

\"This bunch of three year olds is pretty weak.\"

And then they ran the rest of the races the rest of the year. How quickly things can change.

Bernardini is proving to be the Best Horse around, three years old or not. Unless you start talking about Sprinters then maybe Henny Hughes gives you cause for pause. Considering Showing Up had a bad day when he was beaten by Cacique you could argue if he goes in the BC with better spacing, you better not throw him out.

Henny Hughes probably deserves high marks because he did campaign as a two year old. And yet the other two have come a long ways real fast. There really is no substitute for experience. If you don\'t believe me remember the first time you slept with a female. Same thing happpens to young horses just trying to get from the barn, to the paddock, then the starting gate.

There almost seems to be three phases of race horses career\'s now. Those that race at two and disappear because of injury or unfulfilled promise. Those that start late and do well at three and move on to early syndication. Those that didn\'t do much in either instance but hung around long enough to get good and be professional and give us someone to bet on.

I\'m betting that six months from now everyone will be saying how bad the three year old bunch is.

Its a Lock

[Michael D.]

barbaro ran one of, if not the fastest derby\'s ever.

bernardini ran one of, if not the fastest preakness\' ever

henny hughes now has the best three year old sprint sheet ever.

bernardini now has the best three year old route sheet ever.

discreet cat is one of the fastest three year olds ever.


i\'ll never believe that war emblem, funny cide, or afleet alex (although he did turn out to be a very good one) ran much faster than the past greats, however..

taking into account the four greats mentioned above, i would argue that this is the fastest three year old crop of all-time.

[richiebee]

And the only one not racing anymore (and thankfully still with us against all odds) is the Derby winner.

The KY Derby is too far for 3YOs to race 4 months into their 3YO seasons. There are only a handful of horsemen with the acumen to pull this off, and only a couple of colts per year who can withstand the grind of a Derby campaign, yet each year there are 20 runners in the gate-- a few with the talent and foundation to win, the rest driven by the greed and delusions of grandeur of some owners who have the lyrics from an old Dan Fogelberg song bouncing around their brains.

Ask Nick Zito how tough it is to win the Derby. Ask Todd Pletcher. Ask Bobby Frankel. Ask Bill Mott and Shug McGaughey, who rarely put their runners through the Derby wringer, why this is so.

The industry is currently based on instant or early gratification. Breeders are looking to produce a horse who can work an eighth mile in less than 11 seconds the week of a 2YO in training sale; owners are fixated on those May roses.

This is one of the reasons the game is not too gratifying for Racing fans, why overhyped stallion prospects are marched off to the breeding shed with minor injuries, why we rarely see Triple Crown racers competing as older horses, why we have a $750,000 race which draws 4 runners.

4 runners in a race where SECOND money was $150,000. Amazing to me that with the vast amount of quality horseflesh entrusted to Messrs Frankel and Pletcher that neither one was represented in this race. Ditto I guess the aforementioned Mott and McGaughey.

Imagine if professional sports stars were made so wealthy as teenagers that they were too wealthy to have to compete by the time they were 25...

Possible solutions to the problem of early retirement in Racing (this IS a problem, because the lack of continuity makes it difficult to build the \"brand\" of Racing, as they would say in the retail biz):

Solution 1: Subsidize geldings and older horses. Limit some big money races to geldings and older horses. Give geldings a weight allowance and purse enhancement when they race against \"entire\" horses. (Come on folks, admit it, we all want to see Perfect Drift v Funny Cide, to see which of these \"gallant geldings\" has a stronger will NOT to win).

Solution 2: A HUGE bonus for OLDER runners who win multiple Grade 1 or Graded stakes. Maybe some big money stakes races late in the year which exclude 3YOs.

Solution 3: Huge bonuses for winners of Triple Crown races who stay around and win stakes races as older horses.

Discreet, \"Nardi\" and Henny all good advertisements for passing on the Run for the Roses?

[bobphilo]

Rich,

Great post. While I doubt that the financial incentives to keep stallion prospects racing will match those of sending them to stud early, I like the idea of limiting major stakes to older horses (4YO & up). This would give added incentive to sticking around for the larger purses and possible Horse of the Year honors.

Bob

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And the only one not racing anymore (and
> thankfully still with us against all odds) is the
> Derby winner.
>
> The KY Derby is too far for 3YOs to race 4 months
> into their 3YO seasons. There are only a handful
> of horsemen with the acumen to pull this off, and
> only a couple of colts per year who can withstand
> the grind of a Derby campaign, yet each year there
> are 20 runners in the gate-- a few with the talent
> and foundation to win, the rest driven by the
> greed and delusions of grandeur of some owners who
> have the lyrics from an old Dan Fogelberg song
> bouncing around their brains.

Theres even fewer in the Travers 3 months later. Rather than the horses being too young, maybe its a matter of most horses not wanting 10 poles.

>
> Ask Nick Zito how tough it is to win the Derby.
> Ask Todd Pletcher. Ask Bobby Frankel. Ask Bill
> Mott and Shug McGaughey, who rarely put their
> runners through the Derby wringer, why this is
> so.

Its a good horse at the right time of year that can get the trip.

> The industry is currently based on instant or
> early gratification. Breeders are looking to
> produce a horse who can work an eighth mile in
> less than 11 seconds the week of a 2YO in training
> sale; owners are fixated on those May roses.
>
> This is one of the reasons the game is not too
> gratifying for Racing fans, why overhyped stallion
> prospects are marched off to the breeding shed
> with minor injuries, why we rarely see Triple
> Crown racers competing as older horses, why we
> have a $750,000 race which draws 4 runners.
>
> 4 runners in a race where SECOND money was
> $150,000. Amazing to me that with the vast amount
> of quality horseflesh entrusted to Messrs Frankel
> and Pletcher that neither one was represented in
> this race. Ditto I guess the aforementioned Mott
> and McGaughey.
>
> Imagine if professional sports stars were made so
> wealthy as teenagers that they were too wealthy to
> have to compete by the time they were 25...
>
> Possible solutions to the problem of early
> retirement in Racing (this IS a problem, because
> the lack of continuity makes it difficult to build
> the \"brand\" of Racing, as they would say in the
> retail biz):
>
> Solution 1: Subsidize geldings and older horses.
> Limit some big money races to geldings and older
> horses. Give geldings a weight allowance and purse
> enhancement when they race against \"entire\"
> horses. (Come on folks, admit it, we all want to
> see Perfect Drift v Funny Cide, to see which of
> these \"gallant geldings\" has a stronger will NOT
> to win).
>
> Solution 2: A HUGE bonus for OLDER runners who win
> multiple Grade 1 or Graded stakes. Maybe some big
> money stakes races late in the year which exclude
> 3YOs.
>
> Solution 3: Huge bonuses for winners of Triple
> Crown races who stay around and win stakes races
> as older horses.



> Discreet, \"Nardi\" and Henny all good
> advertisements for passing on the Run for the
> Roses?

Henny is not a bad horse, but he\'ll be hard pressed to win at 10 poles.

Nardi hasn\'t meet a real field since the Preakness and he got fortunate that day so many went off form. He\'s a good horse, not badmouthing him now, But lets make him win against an accomplished group before we crown him.

Discreet Cat still has a lot to prove. Step up and prove it.
>

[NoCarolinaTony]

Ctc,

Almost sounds like class handicappinging 101.

NC Tony

[ronwar]

If I remember correctly, Discreet Cat galloped against Invasor, and that one hasn\'t lost since...D\' Cat is the real deal!

[miff]

Chuck said:

\"Henny is not a bad horse, but he\'ll be hard pressed to win at 10 poles.

Nardi hasn\'t meet a real field since the Preakness and he got fortunate that day so many went off form. He\'s a good horse, not badmouthing him now, But lets make him win against an accomplished group before we crown him.

Discreet Cat still has a lot to prove. Step up and prove it.\"
>

Chuck,

1.Who said that a horse has be proven at 10 f to be great? HH runs holes in the wind and trains and acts like a mid distance champ. Whats the knock?

2.To question anything about Bernardini(except perhaps never being hooked by a talented horse) is just being contrarian.Bernardini has probably run consistently faster than any 3yr old in the history of figures.He big, strong, athletic, bred and does nothing but win. Whats the problem? Who hasn\'t he run over yet for you to knock him?

3.Discreet Cat was and is being babied for reasons by the connections. At the advice of his racing people the sheik was told last year that DC was somewhat immature(like a young child developing a little slowly). He has questions to answer, but surely you must be impressed by his speed and talent and there looks to be more.

Generally Chuck,you like to knock fast horses. I guess you liken yourself to a big game hunter. Hope it\'s working out at the windows.Personally, I tend to try to beat up on the \"sisters of the poor\" type runners instead of the consistent fast ones.

Mike

[Silver Charm]

Very good post Michael D.

I forgot about Discreet Cat.

I don\'t know how Wait A While\'s grass numbers rank among three year old fillies but they have to be up there.

Also if you and I are talking about how good this bunch is, why isn\'t the media? Afraid someone might actually turn on the TV or go to the Track to see what\'s really going on?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck said:
>
> \"Henny is not a bad horse, but he\'ll be hard
> pressed to win at 10 poles.
>
> Nardi hasn\'t meet a real field since the Preakness
> and he got fortunate that day so many went off
> form. He\'s a good horse, not badmouthing him now,
> But lets make him win against an accomplished
> group before we crown him.
>
> Discreet Cat still has a lot to prove. Step up and
> prove it.\"
> >
>
> Chuck,
>
> 1.Who said that a horse has be proven at 10 f to
> be great? HH runs holes in the wind and trains and
> acts like a mid distance champ. Whats the knock?

Richiebees post involved horses volitionally passing the Triple Crown grind. Not sure Henny had a choice. Can he be a good one?....yes. Who said I was disinclined to favor him sprinting? I meant what I said, and I said what I meant, Hennys a sprinter One Hunderd Per Cent.


>
> 2.To question anything about Bernardini(except
> perhaps never being hooked by a talented horse) is
> just being contrarian.Bernardini has probably run
> consistently faster than any 3yr old in the
> history of figures.He big, strong, athletic, bred
> and does nothing but win. Whats the problem? Who
> hasn\'t he run over yet for you to knock him?

They were saying the same thing about Barbaro prior to the Preakness and Bernardini made my day. If you think that Bernardini is the second coming and has proven it in his heats including the JCGC last against one horse of note that may have been on the downhill side of top step right up and crush him at 2-1, maybe 7-5? I\'ll take my chances betting against him. As far as being a contrarian, theres always an edge in betting against low odds horses facing the toughest competition of their careers. That said, at this point, I don\'t see a Barbaro or Lost in the Fog stand against him.

 
> 3.Discreet Cat was and is being babied for reasons
> by the connections. At the advice of his racing
> people the sheik was told last year that DC was
> somewhat immature(like a young child developing a
> little slowly). He has questions to answer, but
> surely you must be impressed by his speed and
> talent and there looks to be more.

No I\'m really not. Not at all. I\'ll be impressed if he can hit the board in the B.C. Classic though

 
> Generally Chuck,you like to knock fast horses. I
> guess you liken yourself to a big game hunter.
> Hope it\'s working out at the windows.Personally, I
> tend to try to beat up on the \"sisters of the
> poor\" type runners instead of the consistent fast
> ones.
>
> Mike

Theres only one way to win at this game. Beat vulnerable low odds horses. It really is that simple. I\'ve been very patient waiting for the right race to oppose Bernardini  and as stated I\'ll be in the \"Beat Bernardini\" line.

[bobphilo]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Theres only one way to win at this game. Beat
> vulnerable low odds horses. It really is that
> simple. I\'ve been very patient waiting for the
> right race to oppose Bernardini  and as stated
> I\'ll be in the \"Beat Bernardini\" line.

Not quite Chuckles. The way to beat this game is to bet horses who\'s chances of winning are better than their odds. That can include some solid favorites. Sometimes being so eager to beat low priced horses can make people see vulnerabilities that are only in the mind of the bettor. Betting against horses like Bernardini is the best way to lose your money. The thing about looking for something too hard is that you start seeing it when it\'s not there.

Let\'s see, his JC gold Cup win was against a small field. Have you considered that the reason Bernardini faced such a small field was that he scared them all off? Last month the knock was that he\'s getting headstrong and won\'t rate. Well, he disproved that one in the GC. Now it\'s because he\'ll be facing older horses. Do you think that some older horse who is slower than him is going to come to him in the race and say \"Hey, I\'m older than you, just look at my teeth\" and he will decide, to run a poor race. When he looked Wanderin Boy in the eye it was the older horse who blinked. Good 3YO\'s beat slower older horses all the time in the fall.

It\'s amazing how creative one can be when looking for something that just isn\'t there.

Bob
Bob

[miff]

Chuck,

Like I said I\'m looking to beat up on reputation slower horses that are not that fast as opposed to consistently fast ones.It also depends on whether you are boxing/stabbing for a few bucks or making a substantial bet.Faster horses LOOK faster when you are betting large sums.

Mike

[Michael D.]

re henny hughes

how about this - he has only run past 1 mile once. in that race, he ran one of the fastest 2 yr old route numbers ever.

quite a horse.

[Silver Charm]

Agree Michael D.

Considering the pace he encountered in the Champagne and the BC Juvy last year and how well he still held. You would have to believe if they stretched him out to a Mile with his early speed.....

Nobody could touch him

[flushedstraight]

It\'s also amazing how blind one can be when in awe of a truely classy and fast racehorse.

I find it impossible to argue Chuck\'s rather obvious point that this is the toughest test ever for Bern assuming INvasor, Lava Man, & Strong Contender show up. There appears to be enough random factors present to make a case against him at a short price (7-5?)

Invasor being a southern 4yr old & Strong Contender at 3 could still be below their peak and both ran very fast competitive figs months ago. With Lava Man\'s speed and gameness, he could entice Javy to ride aggressively, opening the door for either of the above for a legit challenge to the fave if either fire.

Bern is not vulnerable relative to his odds because of lack of talent, it\'s because of the new challenge that he has not faced yet. For the record, I was one of the idiots at Belmont applauding him for winning that \"race\" at 1-9 last week.