BC Picks

[HP]

I haven\'t posted here in awhile so I\'m in for the annual BC picnic.  My picks are quite a bit different from Jerry\'s...we\'ll see how that goes.  Every year I spend all week looking at the stuff...so this year I\'m doing it QUICK.  One look and I\'m done...

Juv. Fillies

In the juvies, I look for horses that are ready to pop, and I\'m usually less crazy about the ones that have already run a huge race.  The horse that fits my bill here is...Gatorize (30-1!), who would\'ve been my next Caressing, but she drew HORRIBLY and now I will mostly have to use her under in the exotics.  Otherwise I like Octave, Dreaming of Anna, She\'s Included and Her Majesty, in that order...so I\'ll be playing straight tris (just kidding).

Juvenile

I like Great Hunter and I think I\'ll get better than 9/2.  Otherwise Pegasus Wind looks like some value to add to tickets with Circular Quay.  

F&M Turf

Looks to me like the only value in this race is if Ouija Board runs a little slow off her short layoff...since Wait A While gets weight and looks like she will run well.   I can\'t see betting much here.  Maybe a little with Wait A While on top of Dancing Edie, My Typhoon and Satwa Queen.

Sprint

Thor\'s Echo looks like a possible upsetter to me.  I think I may use Lewis Michael as value under T Echo and the favorites in the exotics too.  

Mile

Free Thinking looks nice at 15-1.  Will play to win and in exotics with Araafa, Echo of Night and Aragon.  I think Gorella may back up a little here...

Distaff

There are others as good as Fleet Indian in here so...  Pine Island and Spun Sugar look best...and I will have to spice up my tickets with maybe Pool Land and...Hollywood Story (I guess Happy Ticket may squeeze in under too).

Turf

I figure either Cacique or English Channel should win...but this is another one I won\'t hit too hard because they both should run.  TH Approval and Red Rocks (Rush Bay?) may provide some value under.    

Classic

I think Premium Tap is the most likely upsetter.  Win and under the latest Horse of the Century (2X) and Invasor (1X).

Good luck to all.  

HP

[Michael D.]

good luck HP, and welcome back ...

Juv Filly: Dreaming of Anna - like the ‘11’, ‘8’, ‘7’ pattern (without really being used). Would feel confident in a run in the ‘2-3’ range if the race was on turf, but eligible to run fast on dirt as well (maiden race wasn‘t bad). Full bro, Michael Lewis, faster on dirt.

Juvy: C P West - a bit slow coming in, but the colt runs like he wants to go longer. By Came Home, stamina on bottom. Great jock, perfect post, long odds. BTW, Gary Stevens saying that if there was one horse that could make him come out of retirement to ride, it would be Circular Quay.

F&M Turf : Film Maker - consistent, solid filly. Expecting a run in the ‘2” range. Nice draw. Ouija Board is the most likely winner, especially from post 2, and Wait a While is the second most likely winner. Low odds the issue for both horses. Going with FM at long odds,  hoping she can split the favorites.

Sprint: Henny Hughes - negative ‘3.5’ top. expecting a move forward here, which would make him too tough.

Mile: need to see the turf condition, but the key will be a long shot that drew well.......  looking for value - silent name & echo of light.

Distaff: Spun Sugar - looking for a negative ‘1’ to win this. Toss the poly race last. the win at Saratoga was good enough to put her right there in this one. Decent post, not sure about the jock. Pine Island might have a problem getting up at 9f, especially in the big field, but she drew perfectly, and at 6-1, they sure are making it tempting to put this filly on top. Still, it’s Spun Sugar at long odds.

Turf : Hurricane Run has been facing better, and I can’t find any value on the Americans. Scorpion as well.

Classic: Bernardini - negative ‘3.75’ top. Expecting a move forward here, which would make him too tough. No value at 11/10, but I’m not picking anything else.

[Uncle Buck]

Here\'s my key horses for Saturday. I won\'t play the Juv. Fillies.

Juvenille - Stormello
F & M Turf: Mauralakana
Sprint - Siren Lure (Trevor calls out : \"And here\'s Siren Lure Like an express train! He\'s Home Jerome\"
Mile - Araafa
Distaff - Pool Land
Turf - Red Rocks
Classic - Using three in here: Suave, George Washington and Lava man.

[MO]

Juv. Fillies - wide open, pass.

Juv Colts - Scat Daddy

F&M Turf - Film Maker

Sprint - Bordonaro

Mile - Gorella

Distaff - Spun Sugar, Fleet Indian

Turf - Go Deputy

Classic - Bernardini, Lawyer Ron.

[TGAB]

I think there\'s a live key in the BC Fillies--JB and I do not share the same opinion though.

[richiebee]

Juvie Fillies-- too tough for me
Juvie Colts-- Stormello\'s trainer\'s last 90 day TG stats fascinating
F/M Turf-- Usual suspects (OB, WAW) over longshot Euros (Mauralakana,Satwa Queen)
Sprint-- Henny, Too Much Bling, War Front
Mile-- Araafa,Free Thinking, Echo of Light, Rob Roy
Distaff-- Pine Island, Spun Sugar
Turf-- Scorpion, Red Rocks, Go Deputy
Classic-- Bernardini, throw Lava and Invasor out of gimmicks; use Premium Tap,
David Jr, Lawyer Ron and Giacomo underneath fave

Selections in turf races assume a turf course which is something less than firm

[marcus]

TGAB - It\'s a pretty tricky call , i\'m going with a sheer gut play on sutra in the ph contest but i\'m still not sure about an exact wagering strategy - maybe add quick little miss and ? . . .  

no matter how the race turns out , i will feel always feel a little uncomfortable when using 2 yo\'s to \" run back\" too old numbers after they\'ve bounced badly or tailed off from efforts . with 2 yo\'s , i view any problems with patterns or development as an extreme negative - and i keep an open mind things in general .  

even though it would stepped on the prices , i had hoped a couple of my pic\'s would have fared better in the TG analysis ... Maybe SF is best longshot of them all - his pattern for this is good where in previous turf attemps it was not and , he is fast .      

[NoCarolinaTony]

Current thinking:


Juv Fillies: Dreaming of Anna, cash included (from the man that owns cash call) Take it to the bank

Juvenilles: Street Sense & BOrail plus PLETCHER

F&M Turf Film Maker then Ouija Board

Sprint: Pomeroy,War Front, Henny& Bordonaro...I would have added of improved the chances of Kelly\'s Landing and will inlcude in exotics, but geez draws post 14

Mile: Badge of Ken Ramsey/Aarafa/Miesque\'s approval Box and go...the only Super I will be playing in the race is a \"SUPER FECTA\". Sorry guys can\'t see it, but wish you all the best................................

Distaff: Happy Ticket/Round Pond/Balleto

Turf: Cacique,Hurricane Run/Rush Bay/Scorpion
 
Classic: 2 scenarios are possible. Bernadini and play huge exacta Key\'s and Super Key\'s or The Balydoyls boys get some payback for the Green Monkey by throwing a Monkey wrench into Bernadini crowning moment, Then I\'ll be looking for Layer Ron get the pletcher auto jumpp up, and give Todd the benefit of the trust me play and add Flower Alley, pleasant Tap, David junior and Sun King underneath. May have to play both scenario\'s as scenario 2 makes me rich....(for a day!)

one last thought....Please remember by the time R10 comes along, many people are looking to bail out/get out big. Many times what is obvious, actually has value as people are reaching for Volponi\"2\"\".

NC Tony

[P-Dub]

AB,
If you\'re not gonna tell us, at least give us a hint.  Otherwise,  why say anything at all??

[NoCarolinaTony]

Because he\'s dreaming ofAnna.....

NC Tony

[Josephus]

Here are my thoughts. Don\'t have the TG figs yet as I get the hard copy and won\'t see it until tomorrow, so these are subject to some change:

Dream of Anna

Great Hunter, Street Sense

Satwa Queen

Henny Hughes, Pomeroy, Siren Lure

Araafa, Echo of Light, Sleeping Indian

Pine Island, Asi Siempre

Cacique, Scorpion

Bernadini and using Lawyer Ron, Premium Tap, Suave

[MO]

Am really surprised that I am only one so far who likes Scat Daddy. He\'s Pletcher, 3 lengths faster - what am I missing?

[P-Dub]

Oh, didn\'t mean to wake him up. Sorry AB.

[TGAB]

It\'s late I\'ll talk tomorrow.

[RICH]

I have been looking at these figs for a week, and I am very confident, so here goes

fillies- Her majesty
colts - Street sense - scat daddy
f/m    - satwa queen, ouija board, waw
sprint- too much bling, siren lure
mile   - echo of light, araafa
distaff- round pound, pine island
turf -TH approval, cacique
classic - lawyer ron, premium tap, bernardini