Breeder's Cup

[TGJB]

I had a good day, not as good as some TG players (No Car Tony evidently, also a certain TV producer, not a big bettor, who made 75k). Hit Street Sense and the Mile hard, had a decent bet on Invasor, small saver on Thor\'s Echo, but had some chances for big scores that didn\'t materialize-- if Octave doesn\'t run a new top I crush the tri, if someone else runs third in the Sprint I take home the grandstand, if Frankel wins the photo for second in the Mile I do even better than I did (got the same 32-1 Tony did, hit the tri pretty good), and Giacomo getting up for fourth cost me the super in the Classic. I was also alive after the first 3 legs of the pick 6 (which included $30 and $50 horses), with visions of sugar plums dancing in my head...

Still, can\'t complain. The analysis in the seminar held up very well, especially the overviews. Ground loss was a very big deal Saturday-- Cotton Blossom will get as good a figure as DOA, Wait a While and English Channel probably ran the same numbers they have been. We\'ll see, and we\'ll post the whole day as usual.

As for the rail, I\'ll take a look at it, but my gut tells me it was the shortest way home, no more. The way to tell is by looking at the numbers they run, not where they finish, and you have to look at all those that ran on the rail (Bordonaro etc.), not just the winners. When we post the day everyone can put in their two cents.

CTC-- Denman did not have a good day, but Phil GEORGEFF ?!?! You go too far.

Kev-- Yeah, Kenley uses our stuff, used it to claim Lava Man over the objections of someone using other data. False claims elsewhere nothwithstanding.

[miff]

JB,

Would also appreciate your take on the slow raw times in the last two dirt events,distaff and classic, as compared to the rest of the dirt races on the card.

Of note, the fastest horses in training(classic) were involved in a 51 second last half off an honest/average pace.Wonder if you have the CD track slowing for the last two dirt races.Good job with the analysis, wish I zigged instead of zagged a couple of races.


Mike

[tmon]

I think Gomez cost Wait A While at least 2nd. He choked her off of a slow pace and kept her wide on all 3 turns.

[miff]

I thought she disliked that turf course. Never showed any of her explosiveness when asked around the last turn.

[Michael D.]

Jerry,

speaking of ground loss,

trakus had street sense going 48 feet longer than circular quay in the breeders futurity at kee. the TG figures had the difference 1.5 points. is that correct?

the main point here, however, is that street sense had every right to bury circular quay in the BC with a ground saving trip. i wouldn\'t make any conclusions about a golden rail based on this one.

[TGJB]

Michael-- it\'s correct that we gave SS 1 1/2 points better, can\'t speak for what Trakus had or whether it\'s accurate. Those guys have been nice enough to give us access to their data base to take a look, when things calm down around here(probably over the winter) we will.

[miff]

Mike D/JB

People are already fooling with trakus conversions.I hear that 22 feet of stride, equals one stride length. So the 48 extra feet covered by Street Sense in the Futurity equals app 2+ stride lengths. TG generally agrees with trakus by giving 5.5 to SS and 7 to Cir Quay which is app a 2.5 length difference at the distance.

I asked for all the conversiona data to see how TG matches up with Trakus but was told the conversion info is proprietary.


Mike

[NoCarolinaTony]

Miff,

This has all be hashed out before. On the trackus website, they state pretty clearly one length equals 8 feet for the typical thoroughbred.

NC Tony

[miff]

Tony,

Correct.We are trying to measure the average stride length, not the length of the average horse(8ft). When a horse launches off the ground, how far does he go before he lands(like a broad jumper). The info I saw said app 22 feet. Don\'t know if that is accurate.

Mike

[bobphilo]

Hi Mike,

At the gallop a horse does not leap off his hind legs and lands on his forelegs. That’s how they are depicted in the old paintings before high speed photography showed that, on the left lead for example, 1) the right hind strikes first followed by 2) the left hind and right fore almost simultaneously followed by 3) the left fore and then 4) an instant of suspension before the right hind strikes again to begin the next stride. It’s not a leaping gait but rather a rolling 3 beat cadence.
In any case, stride length is irrelevant since beaten lengths are based on the 8-foot length of a horse (which does not change) and not the stride length. Please refer back to the conversation I had with Tony on this for more details. So, just as Trakus recommends, just divide the feet by 8 to get the beaten lengths.

Bob

[miff]

Hi Bob,

Lets see if we can clarify.In his start previous to the BreederS Cup, Trakus data had Street Sense travelling 48 feet more than Circular Quay.Due to ground loss,SS recEived a better TG fig(5.50) than CQ (7)even though CQ beat SS, no problem.

Using the formula of 8ft is always a length(even in full stride) one must conclude that SS ran 6 lengths further than CQ(48ft. divided by . TG has the difference at app 2.5 lengths.Having watched this race carefully several times, I think TG is correct.Am I missing something or is there just a difference between the two sources, TG and Trakus.

From a thoroughbred publication:

.....the stride of the thoroughbred racehorse is approximately 20 feet long and they can take up to 150 strides per minute!

Mike

[bobphilo]

Mike,

I think the confusion lies in the difference between stride length and beaten lengths measurements. The measurement used for beaten lengths is from the horses nose to his butt (average 8 ft.) and where the hooves are is not part of it. This is not the same as stride length which measures how far a hoof goes from where it leaves the ground in one stride sequence to where it lands on the following stride. The 2 are different measurements and the 8-foot measurement is the one used in beaten lengths.
I made a slight error when I said that the 8-foot length does niot change since it is slightly longer during the extension part of the stride than during flexion. However, since a running horse spends the same amount of time in flexion and extension the 8-foot average holds.
It is entirely possible that the TG measures of ground loss and Trakus can vary for a particular race and this would give a different ground loss adjustment but it has nothing to do with stride length. The difference would be entirely due to how much ground loss was measured by each.

Bob

[bobphilo]

Mike,

Just an additional thought. Though the the value of a beaten length is 8 ft and is equivalent to the ground loss of 1 length for every extra path, the value of a length varies from distance to distance so the value for the ground loss at the 1 1/16th mile distance must be taken into account and this may also have something to do with the discrepency you\'re finding.

Bob

[miff]

Bob,

Thanks. I\'m beginning to see some things which are relevant. It does seem that the only plausible explanation is a different conclusion re ground loss by the two outfits for SS.


Mike

[Michael D.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bob,
>
> Thanks. I\'m beginning to see some things which are
> relevant. It does seem that the only plausible
> explanation is a different conclusion re ground
> loss by the two outfits for SS.
>
>
> Mike
>
>


Jerry,

anything?

quickly, what is the formula?