? for TGnick

[Mall]

Nick: Hope you enjoyed a raucous bacchanalia last night. My question is what led you to the conclusion that firster & 23-1 cap horse Bye Now \"should be ready\" in SA\'s 3rd yesterday. I used a variety of handicapping materials to look at the race in some detail & couldn\'t find the horse based on works, pedigree, trainer stats, etc, etc. Nice call, glad you survived the objection(whatever it was) & thanks in advance for your response.

[TGnick]

Hi Mall,
Happy New Year to you, I stayed sober.  
The race had virtually all firsters.  In cases like that, I use the \"Sire Profile, 1st time out, TGI\" stat heavily,
provided the sire has a reasonable number of outs (at least a hundred, preferably over two hundred.)  
Austie had a better TGI stat (ran third), but the trainer stats for 1st-outs suggested Orman has a stable
that\'s ready.  
Brahms Fashion ran well 1st out. Trainer stats pointed to a possible improvement 2nd out, so I felt it
was a must-use.  
Hope that explains it.

[Mall]

It does indeed, especially re the 3rd place finisher, which seemed to me like a pretty strong pedigree play at more than 30-1. Thanks again.

[msola1]

TGNick,

How do Osman\'s first-out stats suggest he has a stable that\'s ready?

I looked at them and saw:

Starts Win% ITM% ROI
4.........0..........0..........0.00....1st time out 2-y-o (MSW)
2........50.........50..........3.70....1st time out mdn 4-1 or less
5........20.........40..........2.96....1st time out mdn over 4-1 to 10-1
16........0.........13..........0.00....1st time out mdn over 10-1

That is, no 2yo firsters, 0 for 16 at odds greater than 10-1, and 2 at odds of 4-1 to 10-1.

Thanks,

Mike

[TGnick]

Mike,
It\'s true there are no wins for 2yo MSW\'s, but I treat state-bred MSW\'s as
glorified maiden claimers.  In that category, the trainer showed a good win %
and a positive ROI (granted for a small sample.)   In addition, the horse showed
steady (no hiccoughs), solid works, and at the price was worth a shot.  
\"Horse\" rather than \"stable\" would have been a better characterization, but I\'ld keep
an eye on his 1st timers in the future.  
Good luck in the new year,