Sat. at GP: let's talk

[Josephus]

I invite any and all comments on a frustrating day.

Race 1. Cheap horses running TG figs way above their tops at about the same level, yet Chilham Castle opens at 3/5? Only 1 work since it\'s last showing...new trainer Wesley Ward ...Hmmm. I pass the race.

Race 2. Another pass.  Michael Matz\'s 2nd start stats will now reach the mooon.

Race 3. They all look the same. I thought Willard Straight was the best, but went with United, figuring Lake would have him steriod up, and he had enough early speed to save ground....didn\'t think Everything to Gain would run anywhere near his top.

Race 4. no value, another pass.

Race 5. figuring half the field to run in the 6-7 range and the other 9-10. I used Warrior Girl, figuring Bravo who loves to save ground at Mth would work out some kind of trip...he had chances to drop over, but never did, he comes flying around the turn..was he 10 or 12 wide... he doesn\'t ride with the same confidence when he\'s in with the big boys.

Race 6. pass

Race 7.Leonardo\'s 0 sticks out , even if he runs a 4 he could win... he doesn\'t...kudos to all who had the closer.

Race 8 I\'ve got problems with TG here....Shaggy Mane and Secret Scheme were my 2 picks based on the DRF before I picked up my hard copt TG at the track... SS scratches, and TG only has SM running 5 -6, even with Beyers in the high 90\'s...so I, loyal to the TG figs go off him...anywayhe blows away the field..somebody better check those BM and GG figs.    

Race 9  I know Jerkins is hot but this is ridiculous.

Race 10. Based on the TG figs, I can see Summer Book , Silver Wagon and Dry Martini running good...I\'m figuring it takes an \"0\" to win this race.. but McCann\'s Motjave....going from \"3\" to \"5\" to get down to that level as a 7yo doesn\'t seem plausable.... what about those BM and GG figs?

Curious to see how some of the other posters and JB viewed the day,  and opinions on the No. Cal. numbers in Races 8 and 10.

[miff]

Josephus,

Last year or so the board discussed a number of So Cal runners that ran TG tops when shipped to NY.I looked into the So Cal thing and felt that Beyer was real fast and TG was a little slow when comparing 5 sources(tg,rags,beyer, brisnet,equiform)Jerry reviewed the figs and was comfortable with them.

Regarding your query re the No Cal Figs, a quick scale comparison to other data shows the TG figs to be a little slower than the \"2\" level assigned to SM and the \"0\" for Mc Canns top.This is consistent with TG running a little slower on the west coast only vs other data.Incidentally SM ran a huge lifetime top that Jerry may find tough to assign, imo.

I spent about six months fooling with multiple source comparisons and it really did not produce a definite answer.App87% of the time, most sources agreed on the figs but in the other 13% there was major disagreement.

In discussing this with Jerry, I concluded that some horses just do not run  their figs at certain tracks.Speed figs out of Delaware and Finger Lakes have generally not held up when those runnners shipped elsewhere.Don\'t know why.Horses shipping to Calder for the first time usually run poorly(on the whole) and there are more examples.

Now add poly figs!! Good luck.

Mike

[dodie]

Anectdotally (SP, -5),  I agree with Del figs especially seeming to \"not hold up\" elsewhere.  The question is, isn\'t that one of the main points of using TG figs, for the track to track comparison value?  In any event, this is purlely anectdotal, but it does seem to point to a problem with the Delaware figs.  Is the track composition that different that it would cause such percieved aberations?

[miff]

Dodie,

Two possible answers:

1.There are horses that definitely favor certain surfaces and will not perform as well on others.

2.Delaware is one of the greatest \"move up\" tracks around. I would guess that they are using illegal stuff, big time.

Because horses are not running their figs at different tracks does not mean that the figs are wrong. There are many quirky surfaces that are made up of different compositions and certain horses just do not perform on them.

Mike

[dodie]

Tnks for the insights.  I guess delaware juice just doesn\'t work out of state.

[Michael D.]

Josephus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I invite any and all comments on a frustrating
> day.
>
> Race 1. Cheap horses running TG figs way above
> their tops at about the same level, yet Chilham
> Castle opens at 3/5? Only 1 work since it\'s last
> showing...new trainer Wesley Ward ...Hmmm. I pass
> the race.
>
> Race 2. Another pass.  Michael Matz\'s 2nd start
> stats will now reach the mooon.
>
> Race 3. They all look the same. I thought Willard
> Straight was the best, but went with United,
> figuring Lake would have him steriod up, and he
> had enough early speed to save ground....didn\'t
> think Everything to Gain would run anywhere near
> his top.
>
> Race 4. no value, another pass.
>
> Race 5. figuring half the field to run in the 6-7
> range and the other 9-10. I used Warrior Girl,
> figuring Bravo who loves to save ground at Mth
> would work out some kind of trip...he had chances
> to drop over, but never did, he comes flying
> around the turn..was he 10 or 12 wide... he
> doesn\'t ride with the same confidence when he\'s in
> with the big boys.
>
> Race 6. pass
>
> Race 7.Leonardo\'s 0 sticks out , even if he runs a
> 4 he could win... he doesn\'t...kudos to all who
> had the closer.
>
> Race 8 I\'ve got problems with TG here....Shaggy
> Mane and Secret Scheme were my 2 picks based on
> the DRF before I picked up my hard copt TG at the
> track... SS scratches, and TG only has SM running
> 5 -6, even with Beyers in the high 90\'s...so I,
> loyal to the TG figs go off him...anywayhe blows
> away the field..somebody better check those BM and
> GG figs.    
>
> Race 9  I know Jerkins is hot but this is
> ridiculous.
>
> Race 10. Based on the TG figs, I can see Summer
> Book , Silver Wagon and Dry Martini running
> good...I\'m figuring it takes an \"0\" to win this
> race.. but McCann\'s Motjave....going from \"3\" to
> \"5\" to get down to that level as a 7yo doesn\'t
> seem plausable.... what about those BM and GG
> figs?
>
> Curious to see how some of the other posters and
> JB viewed the day,  and opinions on the No. Cal.
> numbers in Races 8 and 10.


re the 8th (ROTW) ...

the easy winner looked much better on Ragozin as well.

in the 9th, Miss Shop was the best horse in the race.

the results in the 10th didn\'t make sense to me. i have to study that one further.

[spa]

Joe,if you came up with Shaggy Mane, you should have been in Vegas............If Secret Scheme doesn\'t scratch, would all the TG players in Vegas had a bigger payday!!!! I really believe SS wins on Saturday.........