Author Topic: NTRA Handicapping Finals  (Read 1594 times)

lfe2211

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NTRA Handicapping Finals
« on: January 31, 2007, 11:46:28 PM »
Jerry,

Did I miss a post on a recap of your experience in the tournament? How did things go? As an avid tournament player I\'d be curious to hear your recount of how things went for you.

Thanks.
Dr.Fager 1:59.40/135 lbs

miff

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Re: NTRA Handicapping Finals
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2007, 11:00:42 AM »
Once again the results confirmed thats it\'s much more a \"stab-fest\" than a contest.
miff

TGJB

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Re: NTRA Handicapping Finals
« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2007, 01:00:12 PM »
I haven\'t posted because I\'m still recovering, and it\'s all a blurr.

With 6 tracks to handicap, and especially with choices to make of which races to play, it took me 10 hours to prepare for the first day, and I\'m a guy that usually handicaps very quickly. About 2 hours of that was spent after weeding out the races in creating a color-coded chart listing mandatory races (red), races I was almost sure to bet (blue with a star), and other races with potential bets (blue with acceptable odds), and listing them by post time-- with the time zone differences, that was a very big issue, and several bets came a couple of minutes apart.

So after all that the first race Friday goes off at 9:25 local time, and you\'re in a very busy, high stress environment for 8 hours (especially busy for me, there were a lot of hands to shake). Then I went back to the room and did 5 hours work for Saturday, when I got to put myself through the same thing again. I was in Bally\'s for all but 2 hours of the entire weekend.

I had looked at the Sunshine Millions pre-entries, and loved a couple of longshots (Mach Ride and Hollendorfer\'s filly), so my plan was to try to do what I did at Del Mar-- be close after day one, go for the prices on day two. The first part of the plan worked, and I was in 28th after the first day. When I got to the racebook Saturday, I discovered that BOTH my longshots had been scratched. At that point I could stick my color-coded chart and plans, and I was scrambling the rest of the way-- unsuccessfully. But even if I had known of the scratches the night before, it probably wouldn\'t have made a difference. An awful lot of chalk came in over the two days, along with a couple of bombs, and only those that hit those few bombs were going to get there. To give you an idea, the previous low winning score was $205, and most were around $240. This year, the winner had $189.
TGJB

fkach

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Re: NTRA Handicapping Finals
« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2007, 02:14:41 PM »
It sounds tougher than a job. ;-)

lfe2211

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Re: NTRA Handicapping Finals
« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2007, 09:43:38 PM »
Thanks for the post and comments on your strategy Jerry. Having played about 12 tournaments so far, I know how chaotic and pressurized they can be. And I also know that you have to hit a bomb (cap horse) to have a chance to win.
Dr.Fager 1:59.40/135 lbs

weekend warrior

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Re: NTRA Handicapping Finals
« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2007, 10:17:47 AM »
For contest participants the Redboard Room is SO aptly named. In the last mandatory race of day one I cancelled out a ticket on a horse that went down to 3/2 at GG. Of course he drifted back up to 5:1, won the race and it cost me winning day one and $10,000.

After as Jerry put it so well, the obligatory 8 hours of prep time we move to day two, where my partner (my Dad) and I passed on a 17:1 shot at again the unpredictable Golden Gate. You guessed it, a winner totaling $47 that probably cost a top five finish.

Yes it is like work. Yes it\'s intense. But if you love horse racing and thrive on competition it\'s also a lot of fun. A big thank you to Jerry, Alan, Bill and everyone at Thorograph for the product and support that gives me the confidence to get into a winning position in these events. Now I put it behind me and go back to my \"day job.\" See you all out there battling in the qualifying events throughout the year. Best of luck.
 Jamie

Mall

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Re: NTRA Handicapping Finals
« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2007, 05:12:18 PM »
It was nice seeing you & Miles, as well as all of my other contest compatriots. TG does deserve a great deal of praise, especially for the way they got each of the files up literally minutes after the cards were drawn. Alas, I don\'t even have any good excuses for my poor performance, which did not detract from another terrific time. The NHC truly is the place for all serious handicappers to be in Jan,although for some of us there might be more than a grain of truth in the message on Gabby\'s \"I\'m gonna go broke, die, or qualify\" shirt. I could not possibly disagree more with the sentiment that the NHC is more stabfest than test of handicapping skill. For those of you who agree with me & are already looking ahead, Ellis is now owned by the gentleman who finished 17th this year, and in 2007 they will be offering 12 NHC spots in four big contests. Details available in the Morning Line section near the bottom of the horseplayerdaily home page. Lots more on the owner, the new contests, and the many other things which are being done for horseplayers in the next issue of the magazine. A must read, particularly as the author is reputedly a heck of a nice guy.