Lava Man

[shanahan]

lest there be any further discussion...case closed.  Consider \"ship\" a 4 letter word.  are the connections the last people on earth to realize this?

[P-Dub]

This may have been the first time he shipped for a turf race and it was for a $5M purse.  They took a shot and lost. He wasn\'t the only horse that bombed in the desert last night.

Instead of criticizing them, perhaps you should give the connections some credit for not playing it safe by staying in Cal. We hear criticicsms all the time of horses retiring prematurely and not seeing them race (yes, I know he\'s a gelding). At least they stepped up, took a chance, and squared off against the best.  What more can you ask for??

[fkach]

\"Consider \"ship\" a 4 letter word. are the connections the last people on earth to realize this?\"

I didn\'t think yesterday was the ideal spot for him. I wouldn\'t have chosen that race for him. But if they weren\'t the last ones to realize shipping was an issue, then I was.

In the past, all his ships had an excuse.

He was vanned off of the track in his race prior to coming to NY in 2005 after a very long and hard campaign. I\'ve seen dozens of top horse wear down and fall apart late in the year after having raced at a high level all year long. He gave a clear clue he was done.

He was bad that day in NY, but they sent him overseas anyway where he got destroyed again. To me, sending him overseas at that stage was an obvious error. He was having some problems and needed a rest badly.  

In the 2006 BC, he chased a fast pace on the outside (on a GR day) against horses that IMO were better than him. He was also at the end of an extremely tough campaign.

I thought it was reasonable to look at all of those races and not be 100% convinced whether he was bad because of the ship, point of form cycle issues, quality of competition, or some combination of the above.

Yesterday convinced me that shipping (and maybe drugs) are at least part of the problem. He\'s simply not that bad. He never faced the best turfers in America, but he has won Grade 1 turf events that contained good horses and earned figures comparable to his dirt form. He was fresh and fit going over there and from what I read was doing very well. He was too terrible yesterday to think that the ship/drugs weren\'t a factor.

[miff]

Tough to pass a shot at a $5m purse with a horse who will have limited opportunities in the future.There are many runners who do not perform up to par shipping, off bute(and lasix in this case)

LM is very tough in Cal and a toss elsewhere.


Mike

[shanahan]

fkach:

could not agree more with the last sentence -which was what I was watching hard for all morning.  it\'s not cheap to travel to Dubai, much less ship a horse over there with all the help,...

PDub - understand your attachment to the CA horses, but my incredulousness (is htat a word?) was over judgement, not giving the horse a chance.  If he could win one say...well, anywhere outside CA, I\'ll eat my hard spun hat.  And what\'s more, with the few horses that do recover from Dubai...what was the sense?

[bobphilo]

shanahan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> it\'s not cheap to travel to Dubai, much less ship
> a horse over there with all the help,...


Dubai picks up all expenses, including shipping for all horses entered.

The common denomenator in all LM\'s shipping losses was the lack of Bute.
The horse has tender feet. I can\'t begrudge the connections for one more chance on what might have been a kinder surface for 5 mil, all expenses paid, but at this point, any other foreign experiments would be cruel.

Bob

[fkach]

If they still want to ship (and I don\'t know why they would other than to prove he can), they should take a stab at a race with a big purse outside of CA that tends to draw second string horses. IMO, he\'s not quite up to the best horses in the east to begin with, though I think he has been underrated by many also. I don\'t think winning out there so consistently was just an accident or good fortune.

The race that Super Frolic won two years ago might be a good spot for him if they decide to leave CA again.

Actually, what I\'d like to see is some top eastern horses ship out there and take him on. That CA triple crown series for older horses offers huge purses and prestige. If he comes back from Dubai in top form, I\'d like to see what he can do against a top horse on his home track.

[Sandreadis]

The connections weren\'t the only people who believed in this geldings ability to ship. He was the betting favorite with a few minutes to post at 4/1?? Don\'t know if he ended up the favorite.Talk about false favorites. Finished 16th and last. Where were the head to head betting propositions when you needed them??

[bobphilo]

I\'m not so skeptical of his California performances as he has put up some excellent figures there, on both grass and dirt.

What I would really like to see is what he would do in California off Bute. That would be the best way to answer the shipping or drugs issue. Don\'t hold your breath on that happening, though.

Bob

[lfe2211]

Does anyone think that LM\'s Cali #s (pick your figure maker) are bogus, obtained against weak competition and/or with soft paces? Just asking.

[Barry Irwin]

I think the reason Lava Man ran last is that Corey Nakatani had him uncharacteristically pressing the pace.

[fkach]

His figures are consistently weaker than you typically see from top notch Grade 1 older horses these days (with 1 or 2 exceptions here or there). I also think the \"quality\" of his competition has been on the weak side for that level of racing.

However, I don\'t think it\'s an accident when one horse dominates like he has. IMO, he\'s better than his figures indicate but not as good as the best horses in the east for the last few years.

[Lost Cause]

Any good East coast horse would beat Lava Man...Who, besides the worst derby winner of all time, has he ever beaten of any significance??

[miff]

He has beaten everyone he\'s faced in California( you\'re right,not too much). What he rarely does is run fast but he\'s very game.He is fortunate to be running at a time when the west coast handicap division has been very weak.Wish I owned him.

Mike

[davidrex]

O\'neil had other plans for LAVA.
The owners wanted the glory even tho the trainer had mapped out a schedule that didn\'t include Dubai.Now they must pay for their actions,hoping he returns to his previous form in a diligent time frame.  Good luck to all concerned.