Spa, if Der Teufle runs in the Derby he\'s gonna shock a lot of people. I don\'t think he\'d win the race, but depending upon the track, I would have a little something on him pulling the upset. Theres a litany of factors, chief among them being the fact that he\'s been mis figured in his recent races and when properly figured the figure has bias against built into the number.
The horse has an iron constitution. He is physically remarkable and I believe he is peaking. If he runs in the Trial he may be even money. If he runs in the Derby he\'ll be around 80-1. He needs a couple key defections to get into the Derby and as of now it appears those defections are likely. I think he\'d get a check in the Derby, (keep in mind they pay to fifth). Third or Fourth could make a lucrative finish.
You like Hard Spun. How can you favor Hard Spun and not consider that this horse can throw a good race ?
FYI work watchers are very impressed with him and after the wire he galloped out in front of the Blue Grass horses that beat him. He was not all used up in the Bluegrass like a cheap front end horse. TGraphs ROTW analysis has taken an interesting position. That position is that Teufle looks good on Thorostats, but they view his bearing out as indicative of a tiring or extreme effort and that Teufle\'s probable odds of matching or topping are lower than the Tstats. This is despite the fact that TGraph has called the bluegrass a \"slow pace\" race. Horses change path in the lane for various reasons. Street Sense was lane dodging too and I suppose that makes him a toss in the Derby for the Graph boys. DominiMON was also a bit erratic. So which is it? Was the Bluegrass a dawdling pace where they only worked out for three furlongs or was it so fast that it caused Teufle to tire and change lanes in the stretch? Or was it a race that TGraph really can\'t put their finger upon? Tgraph began misfiguring Teufle with the Southwest. I\'m not sure why, but they got off track there and have been off track since.
I think the horse wants to run. Look at his TFigs. He ran all last year and his final race of his juvenile campaign was his best. The more this horse runs the more he runs foundation into himself. This year foundation is a rare commodity. Personally, I\'d like to see him run in BOTH the Trial and Derby.
spa Wrote:
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> CtC, Teuflesberg should run this Saturday. He has
> no chance next week and Bold Start is ready to run
> a really big one. Nice to see you take a
> stand......
