The winner is.........

[spa]

off

[JEB]

I like Any Given Saturday if Gomez gets him any type of a trip.
He has competitive speed figs plus room to go up from his 2yo top.

He really reminds me of Bluegrass Cat, pletcher horse, highly touted early in the year, great breeding, and a race that was not quite as good as the prep right before the derby.

If he would have drew the 6th or 7th hole, i would love him but the trip is going to be key. I like him with street sense.

John

[white lightning]

thanks spa

[what about bob]

Curlin-visually impressive last.  Have we seen his best? Could be sitting on a monster.
Zanjero-a win at CD and should fill out exotics
Street Sense-best horse in the field.  Needs the trip to prove it.
Hard Spun-1st time Derby trainer and big workout are scary.  
No Biz-rank in first turn, bumps rivals, moves backside, nothing left
Sam P.-blinkers off, could go forward, longshot
SD-bar shoes and breeding are a concern
CQ-Won once over a mile against weak field.  Eight weeks too much.
AGS-18 hole for a horse going off form.  Will be lucky to beat half the field.
Dominican-Poly expert.  Breeding says this is too far.
GH-Big win off shelf, small bounce on poly, may move forward but post is ridiculous.

Street Sense/Curlin/Hard Spun/Zanjero

Sam P/Great Hunter under in supers.

[Blind Switch]

.......Hard Spun

[SoCalMan2]

.......that is a grey gelding, Imawildandcrazyguy, out of Frosty Cupcake...that made my day today!  Thank you TG for that buried fig tipoff on the horse!!!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB,

Please expedite the Red Board Room for review of this Derby. And I would like your readers to know that I do go over your gratis day after Prep figures (red board room) to handicap the hardest of all races to cash. You\'re figures did point the way for me. I didn\'t know you liked Wild and Crazy guy. He was the horse that rang the bell.

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> .......that is a grey gelding, Imawildandcrazyguy,
> out of Frosty Cupcake...that made my day today!
> Thank you TG for that buried fig tipoff on the
> horse!!!

[cubfan0316]

no todd, pre-race drug test to thank. the guys a lousy cheating bum who should win a lot of derbys with all the money behind him.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TAP has a notorious pattern with young horses. They start out fast. The others are legit trainers and bring theirs along. Pletcher is now Nada for 19. I really thought the key was the drug test, but interestingly TGJB did not seem to be in accord with how monumental I felt it was. Maybe he didnt\' factor the Pletchers solely upon his figures. Thats why I\'m on pins and needles to see the Red Board.

Score one for the Good Guys. Even if Pletcher could juice those top two were beyond anything he could inject.

CtC

cubfan0316 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> no todd, pre-race drug test to thank. the guys a
> lousy cheating bum who should win a lot of derbys
> with all the money behind him.

[SoCalMan2]

I will save you the pins and needles on Wild and Crazy guy (although I do not recall you being all aglow about him before the race).

Jerry pointed out that he has a pattern of inching foward to new tops and reacting.  He noted that he ran a buried new top in the Lousiana Derby and did not react so terribly in the Florida Derby and that he should run a new top. Jerry said that this would be too slow. But, the way I saw it, if he ran a new top off the Lousiana Derby, you are looking at a horse as fast as Nobiz and three times the odds (and I was expecting a lot longer).

I liked him a lot based on his sheet (made him my longshot special before the race), because his lousiana Derby race was only a smidge better than his 2 yo top, and I thought you could expect him to improve on that more.  I think Friedman calls this the strong conditioning move.  he has a theory where he loves when a 3 yo comes back and in one or two races comes back to his two year old top or even better just makes a tiny improvement,  he views that tiny improvement as a tip off to a bigger move.  If the horse moves too much, then you factor that he already got his early 3 yo growth spurt and that is it, but with the small move, there is more to come.  Imawildandcrazyguy fits that perfectly.  I just threw out his Florida Derby.  Here is what I cannot figure.  That horse was 37-1 in the FLorida Derby against 8 opponents and finished 6th (I bet him underneath that day too).  He comes back into the Derby against 19 opponents off a 6th place finish and somehow his odds go down to 29-1!!!!  How on earth does that happen?  I was really expecting him to be longer.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I will save you the pins and needles on Wild and
> Crazy guy (although I do not recall you being all
> aglow about him before the race).



lol, you don\'t think I liked Awildandcrazyguy? Well, you\'re entitled I suppose.

Truth be told I was sweating bullets when I saw him coming, because I did not have him in third. If he had been able to put Curlin away I would only have had Perfecta and Win money. Curlin held me safe though and I cashed the most lucrative Derby of my career.

That was as thorough a pounding as has ever been inflicted upon fellow handicappers. No prisoners were taken. Even with the wasteful \"just in case\" dollars upon Teufle. (I did not anticipate Hard Spun going. After the hot work I really thought he\'d rate. Additionally, Teufle came unglued pre race...he never would have held on regardless. I was off with him.) Still if Wild gets third and/or the Seas don\'t part for Street Sense its a cash but just an ordinary cash. The Horse God\'s can be very fickle.

Where I excelled was in the analysis of the field generally and the Pletcher horses in particular. As well as hitting the nail on the head with the drug testing issue. Sometimes I literally scare myself. (Jerry is gonna hate this post and I have commented approaching too often upon this board, but I do love this race so. In my defense I do consult his numbers when I\'m conflicted and I believe that I interpret them better than perhaps all but the host himself. Never too proud to learn, I have learned more from this site than anything else I have been exposed to in the last 15 years or so.)

Regarding Wildguy, all I can point to is this field rundown. Tell me I wasn\'t all over this race, including the statement that with Scat Daddy (3rd Choice) you backed a sprinter:

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,34772,34772#msg-34772

[SoCalMan2]

You had Crazy as one of several that could clunk up.  He was my pre-race longshot special here

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,34822,34855#msg-34855

Although I still would have been a healthy winner on the day off the $101.80 exacta, It was the superfectas that turbo-charged me and were where the transcendental-type action was.


Although I loved Scat Daddy at 44-1 in Pool 1, Street Sense looked too good to me.  I am very pleased with the future bet even though it lost.  I got three months of enjoyment out of it and 44-1 on the Derby 3rd choice.  Well worth the $200.  I thought that Street Sense was just the fastest horse and did not have any of the question marks a lot of the others had.  I ended up using Hard Spun a bunch (he was my third selection) because I really thought he would get a great trip and had an excellent chance to stick around for a piece.  I was rooting for Crazyguy to get up for third as I would have also had a lot of nice trifectas to go with my superfectas.  I only used Curlin defensively.  If SD, CQ, or AGS had been in the third spot instead of Curlin, I would have had the super 3 times and it would have paid more than it did with Curlin running in.


Anyway, it seemed like quite a successful day for the board as a lot of people were having fun pounding a super solid 5-1 shot who ran like he was 8-5.


Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I will save you the pins and needles on Wild
> and
> > Crazy guy (although I do not recall you being
> all
> > aglow about him before the race).
>
>
>
> lol, you don\'t think I liked Awildandcrazyguy?
> Well, you\'re entitled I suppose.
>
> Truth be told I was sweating bullets when I saw
> him coming, because I did not have him in third.
> If he had been able to put Curlin away I would
> only have had Perfecta and Win money. Curlin held
> me safe though and I cashed the most lucrative
> Derby of my career.
>
> That was as thorough a pounding as has ever been
> inflicted upon fellow handicappers. No prisoners
> were taken. Even with the wasteful \"just in case\"
> dollars upon Teufle. (I did not anticipate Hard
> Spun going. After the hot work I really thought
> he\'d rate. Additionally, Teufle came unglued pre
> race...he never would have held on regardless. I
> was off with him.) Still if Wild gets third and/or
> the Seas don\'t part for Street Sense its a cash
> but just an ordinary cash. The Horse God\'s can be
> very fickle.
>
> Where I excelled was in the analysis of the field
> generally and the Pletcher horses in particular.
> As well as hitting the nail on the head with the
> drug testing issue. Sometimes I literally scare
> myself. (Jerry is gonna hate this post and I have
> commented approaching too often upon this board,
> but I do love this race so. In my defense I do
> consult his numbers when I\'m conflicted and I
> believe that I interpret them better than perhaps
> all but the host himself. Never too proud to
> learn, I have learned more from this site than
> anything else I have been exposed to in the last
> 15 years or so.)
>
> Regarding Wildguy, all I can point to is this
> field rundown. Tell me I wasn\'t all over this
> race, including the statement that with Scat Daddy
> (3rd Choice) you backed a sprinter:
>
> http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,34772,
> 34772#msg-34772

[fkach]

>TAP has a notorious pattern with young horses. They start out fast. The others are legit trainers and bring theirs along.<

I don\'t know that I really agree with this.  

I\'ve been a supporter of Pletcher. I think he gets far and away the best stock, but he does run them on whichever circuit their natural abilities will allow them to perform well at. That\'s an incremental skill over and above just having dozens of dynamite horses.

Yes, he usually brings them out sharp enough to compete, but most continue developing slowly throughout the season. Ocasionally one of the really good ones will explode forward even after coming out with a win or good performance. That\'s one reason he wins so often in spots where it doesn\'t look so obvious he has the best horse (and why the public bets him so heavily). His horses do move forward and fire their best shot more often than for most other trainers. They just move forward more slowly than for those trainers that bring them out very short.

He does seem to have a bit of trouble getting his horses to peak for either the Derby or BC though. (hmmmn)  I thought he handled his 3YOs really well this year, but I didn\'t see any peaks yesterday.  

I consider getting a horse to peak on the right day to be a real test of trainer skill.

At this point, Nafzger is looking like he\'s in Charlie Whittingham\'s class.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

well, all i can say is that was a huge super with the trifecta finishers essentially being 1st, 4th and 2nd choices. Absolutely huge.

The value of course, was in eliminating the Pletcher combinations and I did so to the fourth spot on the ticket and had the confidence to not include Scat or AGS for fourth. What was saved in combinations was invested in repeat tickets. The perfecta was fair, the trifecta honest and the super incredible. I believe the Super Value was related to being \"Pletcherless\".

Wheres MO when you want to talk about insanity?

lol

[MO]

Banging his head against a wall for not having a $100 cold exacta?

LOL

Not really. I posted that I was going to pass the race and I did, but logistics played a roll.

The rare occassion where I lay down a bet, I wait until the last 2 minutes before post time. I won\'t bet the Derby on Friday. I had a plane to catch back home after leading the All-Star Buglers through opening day at Suffolk Downs. We were such a hit there that the Derby was really an after thought.(Every cloud has a silver lining). I got to the airport and saw the replay and was glad I had the right horse (s) at least. I was sure he\'d be the fav, but he did pay more than he should have. Had I been at the track a bit longer, I might have bet. Might not. I have seen the odds change on the far turn too many times. I had never cashed a ticket on any horse ridden by Calvin, so why take 9-2 in a 20 horse field?

I sincerely congratulate all the connections, especially Calvin Borel. He deserved this win. It just goes to show that hard work sure does payoff regardless of where you are from or what level of education you have. He\'s a lot richer than most of us and you can take that to the bank. God bless him!

In my opinion, the win price was square, exacta was huge, the tri was paltry. The super was impossible to consider. Hindsight is 20-20.

One thing for sure, I still have yet to cash a ticket on a horse ridden by Calvin. LOL.