Kentucky Derby 2007--Final Figures

[TGAB]

Thoro-Graph figures for the 2007 Kentucky Derby are attached.

[high roller]

hi jerry, some of these figures are so shocking that the only thing i can say is that there must have been huge ground loss for some of the horses that finished so far back but got great numbers, (the 3 that jump off the page, c-quay,ags,tiago)

i pay you for this data so i have to hope you guys are super accurate because this is a premium product, then based on that my second question is WHO WILL BOUNCE IN 2 WEEKS , WHO WILL HOLD UP???

I PREDICT THIS WILL BE THE MOST CONTROVERSIAL DERBY NUMBERS YOU HAVE EVER PRODUCED!

[TGJB]

My guess would be that many readers of this board have the Derby on tape. We use one path on one turn = one length, and SS was on the rail. So if you work out how many paths each horse was wide, you can work out the lengths, and subtract them from the beaten lengths to see how much worse they really were than the winner.

[MO]

Actually, I thought the figures came up pretty close to what I expected. SS and HS got slightly faster #\'s than I expected and Curlin did bounce a little, but not as much as I thought. I\'d say this is an UNUSUALLY formful crop. Love Hard Spun\'s pattern.

[bobphilo]

Thanks for the figures. I just have one question - it appeared that Imawildandcrazyguy was widest of all on the far turn and much wider than the 3W that was reported. Are you sure about this figure?
I realize that incorporating all that ground loss would give him an almost imposibly good jump-up figure, but he really seemed to be much wider than 3W.

Bob

[TGJB]

We got him 1-2-3-4, then fanning out in the stretch, which we don\'t count. We had 3 people look at the race, they all got it very close. One guy messed up one horse, the other two caught the mistake.

[beyerguy]

I thought immediately that Pletcher is crazy not to run AGS in the Preakness.  The numbers certainly would seem to back that up.

[bobphilo]

Thanks Jerry. The ground loss looked like more but the TV camera angle, which concentrated on the lead horses and only showed Crazy for a split second on the turn, was misleading. The figure you assigned him definetly makes more sense given his past figures. Rag\'s seems to have given him the same ground loss, which is one of the few things both your figures agree on.

Bob

[fkach]

You know what he\'s thinking. Two weeks is too fast to come back off a tough race like the Derby. The horse will either be aimed for the Belmont (if he thinks 12F is doable) or be sent to a Stake race where he\'s much the best.

[fkach]

Did anyone see which horse it was that galloped out especially well after the finish?

I saw one replay that showed a good angle. Someone was full of run after the wire, but I couldn\'t tell who it was and I haven\'t seen that angle again.

[beyerguy]

Tiago.

I know what he is thinking, but he is wrong.

[fkach]

Thanks. Tiago may be better than his more famous relative (certainly with a few more races under his belt).

[marcus]

MO - The Derby #\'s are pretty much what I had expected too - imo . This years crop does seem very formful in their own right and also compared to recent years as well ...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m retracting this post.

After further review the logic holds with Tgraph. Pletcher didn\'t off on his horses. He was outfinished on ground loss for the most part and the better stamina horses ran by him late.

GJ Tgraph

[RICH]

Speaking of Imawildandcrazyguy, hope he runs in  the Belmont.