Wed Sar 3rd - interesting jockey change

[Michael D.]

Third race at Saratoga: A $35 claimer with a twelve horse field, obviously anything can happen. Ravaro(1)is stuck with post nine, and another \"6.5\" while running wide certainly will not get the job done. The rider change to Velazquez might make a difference however. I think JR might be a bit more aggressive in getting the horse into position, and just might have enough left at the end to close into a slow pace. The post and pace will work against him, but at 7-2 (morning line), I think a wager across the board makes sense.

[HP]

If he\'s 7/2 morning line and he\'s switching to Velazquez you\'re almost guaranteed to go below 3-1, and at 3-1 or under the math is just so against you (unless you\'ve got some cold exactas). And you think the horse can run his race and lose. And you\'re going to bet across the board. You\'re chasing this angle off a cliff. I guess you\'re doing well with it if you keep going this way. Even at 7/2 that\'s a tough row to hoe. Good luck. HP

[Two Bucks]

Nurey\'s Thunder gets Bailey

[HP]

Delta Wheel to win. HP

[HP]

That Carrero is probably the best jock out there. Prado is just lucky sometimes. Looks like Bailey and Velazquez are washed up. HP

[Michael D.]

HP,
The horses on the pace ran one through five; a terrible misjudgement of the pace scenario on my part. A horrible pick. JR was unable to make a dent in that slow pace.... I like Victor, I think he will be a star one day, but, HP, his .85 ROI this meet has not made anybody money. As for JR and JD being washed up, we will have plenty of time over the next three months to discuss that. In the end, you may have a good point, and the two may burn a lot of money, but I will stick with them for now.

[HP]

What did the Velazquez horse go off at? I can\'t say how horrible your bet was unless I know. Maybe it wasn\'t that bad.

Some fun facts. Velazquez has ridden six winners that paid more than $10 at this meet. The last one was Aug. 4. You will either (1) find a new angle, (2) use this one more selectively, or (3) go broke. I\'m rooting for you. HP

[HP]

This whole jock/ROI stat is ridiculous. It demonstrates only that if you bet ANY jockey every time out, you will lose money, since they ALL have ROI\'s under 2.00. Even the ones that have a slightly positive ROI aren\'t worth anything, since the 2.10 is not enough to make up for admission, racing forms or anything else you use/buy to play. It\'s the definition of a useless stat and a losing angle.

Plenty of trainers have ROI\'s over 3.00 in certain categories. Makes a lot more sense to follow this than Velazquez 1.85 vs. Carrero\'s 0.95. The stat only demonstrates that they are both LOSING MONEY for every 2.00 bet. You can pat yourself on the back and say that Velazquez is losing less than Carrero, but that\'s not much to brag about, is it? If this is how you\'re going about handicapping, I guess there\'s not much for me to add and I should give up on this. HP

[Michael D.]

You selected Delta Wheel. You really should just admit your angle was as loser, as I did. Post some winning angles this w/e, on  particular races, BEFORE THE RACES ARE RUN, and I will be interested in your fun facts.

[Michael D.]

HP,
This conversation is gibberish. Get the last word in and let\'s end it. I have defeated you by large margins in our two handicapping contests, when you feel up to showing off your winning angles, BEFORE THE RACES ARE RUN, let me know, I will give you a third shot.

[HP]

I see you\'re no longer up to discussing this subject, so now it\'s gibberish.

Of course I lost. I thought that was obvious. I didn\'t say anything about winning angles, I said the jock/ROI thing was a losing angle, which it is. If it\'s not, prove me wrong. Despite all your posts, you haven\'t demonstrated how this helps you win money even once. Actually, I vaguely remember you touting Voodoo. That\'s one and that\'s it.

As for contests, I was up against Patent, and won both. If you threw in and scored higher, more power to you. I didn\'t notice. I don\'t have an axe to grind against you, but if you want to have a heads-up contest just say when. If you win picking Bailey and Velazquez all day I\'ll be eating more than crow. I have a feeling if you win you\'ll have to find another way to do it, and it won\'t change anything that\'s been said on this subject. Let me know... HP

[HP]

Oh, and two other things.

1) Speaking of before the race, who tried to help you with Tarnished Lady? That was before the race, right?

2) You\'ve lost your sense of humor. Bad day?

Regards, HP

[Michael D.]

OK, great..... This w/e. You seem to have the most interest in Sar, and there are some great stakes at Arl, how about full card Sar, and the Arl stakes races on Sat. We can decide tomorrow night; if the forecast becomes bad, we can agree to do it later in the Spa meet, or go with just Arl, up to you (a rained out Sar card is horrible horse racing). And since I trounced you in the two previous contests, I will give you a fourth shot if you are unable to beat me in this one. Actually, I will give you up to ten chances if you need them.

[HP]

Boy you\'re really bent out of shape. Must have hit a nerve somewhere.

I don\'t feel trounced, since I\'m the only one who\'s made any money out of these contests, but okay. This weekend is no good. I\'ll probably be away next Sat. too. How\'s next Weds. or Fri. at Saratoga? I would actually be able to play those cards if something looks good. If they\'re lousy cards they\'re lousy cards for both of us, so it should serve our purpose. I like the format of the first contest, $1,000 bet however you want. I think the second format might have favored your style since you could win with those $4 Baileys.

I don\'t think I\'ll need ten tries, but thanks. Let me know on the day/format. HP

[Michael D.]

I\'ll be here.