Wed Sar 3rd - interesting jockey change

[TGJB]

You guys could find a way to disagree about anything. And other than characterizing an argument once, in very broad terms, he didn\'t go after you. Didn\'t even mention you. Go to work on the Saratoga card. There\'s stuff there.

[HP]

Okay, it was in broad terms and he didn\'t go after me. He seems like a very bright guy. HP

[kev]

It\'s like being in a day care center sometimes. Let\'s talk about the PC at Del Mar on sunday.

[Michael D.]

HP: \"a man not being able to live up to his own impossibly high standards.\"  hmmmmm... coming from a guy who goes on for days babbling about handicapping horse races, yet is unable to handicap even one horse race...
hmmmmm.... what are your standards?? Being able to handicap a horse race is certainly not one of them. Do yourself a favor, and live up to this standard: stop your rambling BS posts and talk about handicapping horse races, BEFORE THE RACES ARE RUN.

[Michael D.]

Kevin,
I plead guilty, but during these hot days of August, I need some good humor (so I turn to HP). I am not an expert on Del Mar, but the card looks great tomorrow. I will try to post a few opinions, see how much I can embarrass myself.

[HP]

Try hard Michael. Give ONE example of how you will make money on your jock angle. Still waiting. Insulting me doesn\'t qualify as an example, does it? HP

[Michael D.]

You are a very foolish man. Comparing your angles against mine, when you finished at the bottom of our contests, and I finished at the top, is very foolish. 90% of the people lose at the track. Pointing out that another is not in the top 10%, while you are clearly in the bottom 10%, is just foolish. Find another guy to analyze my handicapping, one who is able to handicap a horse race himself. You clearly have no credibility, and I think everyone is aware of that.

[kev]

90% on a given day and 10% walks away winners......but over the long run only 5% are winners and 95% are losers. Wonder how many players there are?? Cause 5% seems small but if there are say 1,000,000 that means there are 50,000 that wins over the long run. Anyways what is important is how many are winners over the long run on this site?? We have what maybe 20 reg\'s? So that means only one person is a winner over the long run uh???

Anybody ever tryed to step up and become a full-time player??

[Michael D.]

[TGJB]

There are just under 1,000 active TG on-line accounts, plus a few comp accounts. I don\'t know what percentage win (or are pros), but the ones that do generally don\'t call attention to themselves. For the most part they play with rebates, which makes it a whole new ballgame--moderate losers turn into moderate winners, losers break even, break even players become pros.

[kev]

I guess when you say rebates your meaning only in Las Vegas?? Or does OTB\'s have them too??

[Catalin]

I think a lot of what\'s been posted in this string misses the point.  What is it exactly that we are trying to \"predict\"?  For all those that respond  \"the winner\", do not pass go, do not collect $200.

What we are really trying to forecast (at least for all those that profess to be sheet handicappers) is the probability that a horse will run a given number, how his trip (i.e ground loss, pace, etc.) will factor into that number and what is the likelihood that a given # will translate into a 1st place finish, 2nd place finish, etc. based upon the expected figures and the trips of his competitors.  When we upgrade a horse based upon a trainer switch to Baffert or Frankel, or a jockey switch to Prado or Velasquez all we are really saying is that the horse is MORE likely to run his \"good number\" (trainer) and LESS likely to waste energy (ground loss, pace duels, etc.) doing it (jockey), and that these factors (increased % of good numbers / less wasted energy) translate into an increased likelihood of a win.

[TGJB]

Rather than opening a can of worms, let me just say that it would be a good idea to make sure we have your e-mail address.

[kev]

Who??

[Michael D.]