Preakness Revisited

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Curlin - Still not sure why everyone was projecting a bounce upon strung zeros. He got the best part of the track after they ran too fast early. The track was hot. He\'s bred to run a ways, why not go to Belmont win and make yourself the leader in the 3YO championship and all the juicy stud money that entails?

Street Sense - I need to see a replay but I think he relaxed a little. Thats easy to say when a good horse has nailed you on the line. I do believe this horse is a good one, but losing a little steam at the late stage of the races.

Hard Spun - Obviously a premature move upon very fast fractions. I believe these three will take turns beating each other, especially if this one can hold off just a little longer. May have bounced marginally too. The other possibility is that the race was very very fast. I\'m going to withhold opinion upon that for awhile.

C.P. West - Gotta love a high odds super horse. This race needed it.

Circular Way - Pletcher now goose egg for 75 in Triple Crown Races. Who is Pletcher\'s Heir Apparent? The posters here must know that the Pletcher Era is now over. The late scratches and poor finishes are indicative that they are running more clean... even now. The jester is done...long live the new King. The good news is he didn\'t break down. The bad news is he\'s pretty much a confirmed late run miler.

King of the Roxy - Predicted 7th, 8th or 9th for him so he outran expectations finishing 6th but ran worse than being the crowd\'s 5th choice. They really need to sprint this lightly pedigreed animal. His stud location just changed from Florida to California with a 200% stud fee decrease. Barry Should have listened to John T Chance. Barry, I\'m still available for Pedigree and Conformation analysis but my fee to Team Valor just went up. Barry, I\'ll need two seasons to my 2008 selections for you. Seasons and a consultation fee in 2009 and thereafter.

Mint Slewlep - Scrappy T he wasn\'t, but he did get in some trouble and met some good horses today.

Xchanger - Maybe a bounce, maybe too much pressure from heavier heads.

Flying First Class - He had one chance and Lukas apparently didn\'t understand it.

In the Black Race, but no celebration.

CtC

[fkach]

I agree. Hard Spun\'s move looked premature. To me, he looked very relaxed while off the pace in 3rd early. I saw no reason to rush up wide at that point when they clearly weren\'t walking on the lead or anything. I\'ll have to take a closer look, but first glance suggests he would have been a closer at the finish if he just sat back and moved mid/late turn instead.

Curlin is a very nice horse.  Tough loss for SS.  It will be even tougher if he comes back in the Belmont and wins there.

[richiebee]

Fkach:

     I would be very surprised to see any of the top 3 back in the Belmont.
I would be most surprised to see SS, because I am sure Nafzger wants to turn
this colt out for a while. All 3 of these colts have been in hard training for
nearly 6 months and all 3 need to be let down a bit. Lets hope we see them all
in Summer and Fall.

     As for the Belmont, expect a couple of Euros. Look for Jamie Sanders, the
Hee Haw honey, to change her mind and throw Herr Teufle back into the Triple
Crown mix. I do not know what TAP will do for the Belmont -- either wave the
white flag (7 total entries in the Derby and Preakness this year, 7 \"NO FACTOR\"
finishes) or enter all of his Triple Crown nominated colts who are still
standing in a desperate attempt to at least accomplish an on the board finish
in one of this years Triple Crown races. Maybe Rags to Riches, the most
accomplished 3YO in the TAP barn and a half sister to Belmont winner Jazil,will
be entered. Maybe Chelokee, who continued to outrun his sprinter\'s pedigree in
a NW3LT dash on the Preakness undercard, will be the interesting new shooter.

    No matter which equines show up for the Belmont, who won\'t be showing up is
the 50,000 or so additional humans who would have been in attendance had Street
Sense prevailed and had a Triple Crown chance. So it goes for lame duck,
bankrupt NYRA, and New York racing in general. A line from a child\'s rhyme pops
into my head whenever I think about NY racing...

    All the King\'s horses/ And all the King\'s men
    Couldn\'t put New York racing together again....

I hope I am wrong.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Obviously bounce was not a factor even on only 2 weeks rest. The top three are still the top three. If these three want to win a championship they need to dance the dances. They all have reasons to believe they can run better.

Street Sense did not run his favored style of race, which will be easier to run at Belmont. That style of course is the Rail Shoot. I don\'t want to ever hear Bo Rail is too dumb to ride again. He realized early the rail was not the place to be and did not put Street Sense down in there.

Curlin had a stumble and got out quicked on the turn, but he came running down the lane and wore down Street Sense. The Belmont turns and stretch should fit him like a glove.

Hard Spun ran as fast to a mile as a horse can run at Pimlico. Essentially ran on the half mile fraction because he erased the deficit a couple of strides past it. Huge premature middle move. Ran way too fast to hit the board, but yet he hit the board. Could take them gate to wire in the Belmont.

Pletcher will bring a bunch more and finish further up the track. Maybe he can bring Bluegrass Cat out of Stud Fee Protection retirement and try for fourth.

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fkach:
>
>      I would be very surprised to see any of the
> top 3 back in the Belmont.
> I would be most surprised to see SS, because I am
> sure Nafzger wants to turn
> this colt out for a while. All 3 of these colts
> have been in hard training for
> nearly 6 months and all 3 need to be let down a
> bit. Lets hope we see them all
> in Summer and Fall.
>
>      As for the Belmont, expect a couple of Euros.
> Look for Jamie Sanders, the
> Hee Haw honey, to change her mind and throw Herr
> Teufle back into the Triple
> Crown mix. I do not know what TAP will do for the
> Belmont -- either wave the
> white flag (7 total entries in the Derby and
> Preakness this year, 7 \"NO FACTOR\"
> finishes) or enter all of his Triple Crown
> nominated colts who are still
> standing in a desperate attempt to at least
> accomplish an on the board finish
> in one of this years Triple Crown races. Maybe
> Rags to Riches, the most
> accomplished 3YO in the TAP barn and a half sister
> to Belmont winner Jazil,will
> be entered. Maybe Chelokee, who continued to
> outrun his sprinter\'s pedigree in
> a NW3LT dash on the Preakness undercard, will be
> the interesting new shooter.
>
>     No matter which equines show up for the
> Belmont, who won\'t be showing up is
> the 50,000 or so additional humans who would have
> been in attendance had Street
> Sense prevailed and had a Triple Crown chance. So
> it goes for lame duck,
> bankrupt NYRA, and New York racing in general. A
> line from a child\'s rhyme pops
> into my head whenever I think about NY racing...
>
>     All the King\'s horses/ And all the King\'s men
>     Couldn\'t put New York racing together
> again....
>
> I hope I am wrong.

[fkach]

If I had Hard Spun, I\'d almost definitely rest him.  

They could probably squeeze another race out of SS and then freshen him up, but I don\'t see too much upside to running in the Belmont other than the purse. Nafzger may look to have a fresh horse for the Travers and BC.  

I\'d probably consider resting Curlin too.

Chelokee looked pretty good yesterday also even though that was a weaker group. Personally, I think this has developed into a very nice group of 3YOs and I think they\'ve been handled pretty well so far.

[miff]

Fkack,

Agree,Pino pushed the button too early but still would not have held Curlin or SS who moved boldly. Agree that he would have been closer if he waited.HS is a nice horse, a little short gaited, really quick. Will kill everything if he decides to stay away from the top two in the future.


Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think he can win the Belmont. One is skipping it. These three are gonna be murder on one another...lol

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fkack,
>
> Agree,Pino pushed the button too early but still
> would not have held Curlin or SS who moved boldly.
> Agree that he would have been closer if he
> waited.HS is a nice horse, a little short gaited,
> really quick. Will kill everything if he decides
> to stay away from the top two in the future.
>
>
> Mike

[fkach]

I still think the trainer made a tactical error by working him in company with a speedy sprinter in very fast fractions prior to the Derby. It looked to me like he was learning to relax well. Now, even though I think Pino scrubbed prematurely and that\'s what got the horse going too early, the horse is too aggressive again.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Curlin is a good horse, he ran with such authority and determination on the turn and into the stretch. You could see the fire in him. He caught a good horse too.

Ideally I\'d like to see Hard Spun \"hold\" longer. Pino was holding him and then inexplicably urged him after about four poles were run. It was a premature move. The front two were going to back up to him without that urge and if they were dangerous on the lead he could have waited for at least another quarter before he went on. It was a mistake. You have to appreciate Miff\'s comments that it may not have mattered, but it certainly would have been far closer. Though I disagree with whatever he thinks he sees in Hard Spuns action. Hard Spun is not four lengths inferior to the top two.

Regarding the Belmont, I think Hard Spun may be best served running his high cruising speed race. If he gets to the lead and runs relaxed there I think he could bury them. The only horse to worry about is Curlin but he\'ll have to run his eyeballs out to run HS down. Hard Spun will have to be fit enough to not bounce, but it could be a great race. Theres some Rest Up Shooters coming. Wild Guy, probably half a dozen Pletchers. Maybe Hard Spun will go off third Choice. One can dream.

fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I still think the trainer made a tactical error by
> working him in company with a speedy sprinter in
> very fast fractions prior to the Derby. It looked
> to me like he was learning to relax well. Now,
> even though I think Pino scrubbed prematurely and
> that\'s what got the horse going too early, the
> horse is too aggressive again.

[fkach]

IMO Hard Spun needs a rest if they want to have a good horse for later in the season. He\'s had a very long and tough campaign (and I\'m nearly as big as others here on spacing and time etc...)

[miff]

\"Though I disagree with whatever he thinks he sees in Hard Spuns action. Hard Spun is not four lengths inferior to the top two\"


Chuck,

Despite his breeding, I\'m not that impressed with how HS runs that all important last eighth in classic distances. He is not long gaited and has a very nice stride but it\'s much more quick than it is long.Like SS he is zip quick and notice how SS outquicked Curlin top turn, only to run down by a very determined and talented horse. Gary Stevens marveled at how green Curlin still is and wonders what he may become with maturity.

If HS were to go into the Belmont, loose lead, without the other two, I agree that he would win.There\'s not that much out there to stop him.

Mike

[miff]

Fkach,

Conventional wisdom says HS needs rest, however all horse recoup from efforts differently. What knocks one out does little to another.All the nonsense about two weeks rest got another hole in its swisscheese with SS and Curlin running their eyeballs out and HS running well.

Saw Len Friedman do a Preakness preview along traditional sheet type dogma lines which ended with a stab at a horse obviously distance challenged because of spacing and a sprint fig.Found it surprising that a figure related to a one turn sprint for KOTR had any relevance to yesterdays race.Can\'t blame the connections for taking a shot worth millions with a win.

There are no hard and fast rules in racing and every day myths are shattered.


Mike

[alm]

OK, no one has mentioned it yet, so here goes.

If you read my post before the Preakness (I am an SS believer) I reasoned that Curlin was a threat to SS if Pimlico\'s drug testing was not as comprehensive as Churchill\'s.  When I first witnessed horses \'rebreaking\' with a vengence in the stretch in Southern California about 10 or 12 years ago, I reasoned something new was happening and not long after we all learned about blood doping at the races.

Curlin rebroke in much the same way yesterday and it\'s my guess he had a lot of help from his vet in the past two weeks.

I didn\'t think that HS could outfinish SS and don\'t think he ever will, conditioning and health being equal.  I don\'t think he can win the Belmont loose on the lead or any other way if he has to beat SS to do so.  

I doubt Curlin will win the Belmont if he has to face tough drug testing...am not sure what arrangements there are in NY.  Otherwise he will be dangerous.

Jeff Mullin was a 35% trainer in SoCal until the Racing Commission spent a couple of million on testing...now what is he, 12%?  He never had half the infractions Asmussen has had.  Same for Bobby Frankel during the same period.

I don\'t know what\'s more heinous, top trainers using blood doping or the vets who develop and/or supply the stuff they use.

I bet for fun, but if I were betting seriously, if my life depended upon it, I would try to track the movements of the vets who serve the ridiculously successful barns and bet appropriately.

[jmetro]

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> OK, no one has mentioned it yet, so here goes.
>
> If you read my post before the Preakness (I am an
> SS believer) I reasoned that Curlin was a threat
> to SS if Pimlico\'s drug testing was not as
> comprehensive as Churchill\'s.  When I first
> witnessed horses \'rebreaking\' with a vengence in
> the stretch in Southern California about 10 or 12
> years ago, I reasoned something new was happening
> and not long after we all learned about blood
> doping at the races.
>
> Curlin rebroke in much the same way yesterday and
> it\'s my guess he had a lot of help from his vet in
> the past two weeks.
>
> I didn\'t think that HS could outfinish SS and
> don\'t think he ever will, conditioning and health
> being equal.  I don\'t think he can win the Belmont
> loose on the lead or any other way if he has to
> beat SS to do so.  
>
> I doubt Curlin will win the Belmont if he has to
> face tough drug testing...am not sure what
> arrangements there are in NY.  Otherwise he will
> be dangerous.
>
> Jeff Mullin was a 35% trainer in SoCal until the
> Racing Commission spent a couple of million on
> testing...now what is he, 12%?  He never had half
> the infractions Asmussen has had.  Same for Bobby
> Frankel during the same period.
>
> I don\'t know what\'s more heinous, top trainers
> using blood doping or the vets who develop and/or
> supply the stuff they use.
>
> I bet for fun, but if I were betting seriously, if
> my life depended upon it, I would try to track the
> movements of the vets who serve the ridiculously
> successful barns and bet appropriately.

I could buy into your theory if Pletcher\'s horses had run better.  

Curlin is a damn fine race horse, the only thing \"heinous\" was that Albarado didn\'t use Curlin\'s natural speed to get early position in the Derby as it DID cost him dearly in that race.  Yesterday justified the talent in this horse, regardless of who was on his back, or what was flowing in his veins.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Street Sense takes two strides for every one of Hard Spuns and though HS shortened a bit in the shorter Preakness I did not discern any lost extension in the Derby.

Curlin has the Edge now. He won the Ark, Won the Preakness and can solidify his Division lead with a win at Elmont. If he skips the race and Hard Spun wins, Hard Spun moves to the fore upon the basis of being there.

If you assign points for Triple crown wins...3 for 1st, 2 for Second and 1 for third. The score is

Street Sense 5
Curlin       4
Hard Spun    3

If they spot Hard Spun the Belmont they are crazy.

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Though I disagree with whatever he thinks he sees
> in Hard Spuns action. Hard Spun is not four
> lengths inferior to the top two\"
>
>
> Chuck,
>
> Despite his breeding, I\'m not that impressed with
> how HS runs that all important last eighth in
> classic distances. He is not long gaited and has a
> very nice stride but it\'s much more quick than it
> is long.Like SS he is zip quick and notice how SS
> outquicked Curlin top turn, only to run down by a
> very determined and talented horse. Gary Stevens
> marveled at how green Curlin still is and wonders
> what he may become with maturity.
>
> If HS were to go into the Belmont, loose lead,
> without the other two, I agree that he would
> win.There\'s not that much out there to stop him.
>
> Mike