Preakness Revisited

[fkach]

>Conventional wisdom says HS needs rest, however all horse recoup from efforts differently. What knocks one out does little to another.All the nonsense about two weeks rest got another hole in its swisscheese with SS and Curlin running their eyeballs out and HS running well.<

I agree with you completely, but I have yet to see a horse that could sustain a very high level of performance over a very extended period of time without a break. HS has been running without a break since October. If he runs in the Belmont, I can\'t see how he could last for a late summer and fall campaign. IMO, he\'ll be toast by then without a break real soon.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> OK, no one has mentioned it yet, so here goes.
>
> If you read my post before the Preakness (I am an
> SS believer) I reasoned that Curlin was a threat
> to SS if Pimlico\'s drug testing was not as
> comprehensive as Churchill\'s.  When I first
> witnessed horses \'rebreaking\' with a vengence in
> the stretch in Southern California about 10 or 12
> years ago

The Drug Surge started in 2001. 12 years ago was Mary Poppins Time.

>, I reasoned something new was happening
> and not long after we all learned about blood
> doping at the races.
>
> Curlin rebroke in much the same way yesterday and
> it\'s my guess he had a lot of help from his vet in
> the past two weeks.

Curlin was running hard and ran harder once he changed leads.
>
> I didn\'t think that HS could outfinish SS and
> don\'t think he ever will

He\'ll certainly outfinish Street Sense if that one has to go wide or fails to show up,

>conditioning and health
> being equal.  I don\'t think he can win the Belmont
> loose on the lead or any other way if he has to
> beat SS to do so.

He doesn\'t Street Sense is a pass and a wise pass at that


 
> I doubt Curlin will win the Belmont if he has to
> face tough drug testing...am not sure what
> arrangements there are in NY.  Otherwise he will
> be dangerous.

Curlin is the horse to beat if he goes to Elmont
>
> Jeff Mullin was a 35% trainer in SoCal until the
> Racing Commission spent a couple of million on
> testing...now what is he, 12%?  He never had half
> the infractions Asmussen has had.  Same for Bobby
> Frankel during the same period.

Isn\'t it wonderful what a little substance oversight can do?
>
> I don\'t know what\'s more heinous, top trainers
> using blood doping or the vets who develop and/or
> supply the stuff they use.

The Vets are the stars. The trainers are merely going along for the ride
>
> I bet for fun, but if I were betting seriously, if
> my life depended upon it, I would try to track the
> movements of the vets who serve the ridiculously
> successful barns and bet appropriately.

Knowing when to bet upon and against the Supertrainers is a facet of this game.

[miff]

Alm,

Curlin was fast before Asmussen got him and did not really move up much at all in his starts until yesterday.Don\'t follow Cal races close enough to know what Mullins figs were then or are now and what stock he has.I\'m surprised Frankel is not doing as well as his norm.

In NY there are checks and balances similar to Cali and the usual suspects are winning at the same rate.FYI many modern trainers play the game VERY close to the point of illegality with some crossing over. Until they have National uniform drug testing and national agreement on the list, dosage and timing of drugs, there will always be a problem.

In defense of all, to assume that every horse trained by certain guys are drugged is as naive as it to assume that there are no illegal drugs being used in racing.


Mike

P.S. I love that word \"rebreak\" it infers an extra tank of oxygen that kicks in just at the right time.Brilliant!

[davidrex]

Not being one who wails \"gloom and doom\"about drugs;I went back to looking at the stretch run repeatedly.Damned if it didn\'t remind me of a mullins horse from \"xmas past\".
Funny how a trainer as learned and conservative as Carl would think he was about to win the race...did anyone have any doubt ?
Curlin had already changed leads when he \"caught\" his second wind.
S.S. was showing the effects of coming back in 2 weeks,but he was still going to win this race.
ALM,if you hadn\'t brought it up,Iwould have completely overlooked the visual because its been awhile since Cal.horses have shown that unique quality.


Two other points:
1. Pino didn\'t send his mount,sometimes you just waste an animals\' energy level by trying to slow his advance.H.S. needs to learn how to rate.
2. Curlin didn\'t use his early foot because he stumbled out of the gate.
Amazing how a horse can come again after expending so much energy after stumbling.

[fkach]

>1. Pino didn\'t send his mount,sometimes you just waste an animals\' energy level by trying to slow his advance.H.S. needs to learn how to rate. <

He looked totally relaxed to me when he was sitting 3rd well off them coming out of the first turn. Then, Pino scrubbed lightly, and he picked it up at about the same time the other two were already almost ready to pack it in.  The move was probably not as intense as it looked visually, but IMO Pino did pick it up. The horse was not fighting him at all early (at least that I could observe).

[dpatent]

Can someone enlighten me as to the belief that the rail was so bad?  Two horses in the early races won nicely while skimming the fence for the last 1/4.  Flashy Bull was on the rail during the stretch drive (I believe) and in one of the sprint stakes the horse that just lost to Diabolical was on the rail the whole way.

[alm]

It all depends where you are what they are capable of testing at a given track...there are two substances that are used in blood doping...the first produces antibodies that can be detected more easily...the second does not and it also clears the body fast, which is important when you are shipping a horse from track to track.

A trainer who is using is likely to use different methods in different places.

Regardless, it\'s more important to appreciate the effect of blood doping.  Doping won\'t make a bad cyclist or a bad horse faster; it just enables them to burn oxygen more efficiently over longer periods of exertion.  A faster horse (Curlin) will find a second wind at a fast speed.  An equally fast horse (SS) will fatigue at the end of his race.  A slow horse won\'t be in their vicinity anyhow.

TP\'s horses could be juiced up the wazzoo and not beat the top horses if they don\'t have close to their ability.  Evidently his two that ran yesterday do not have the ability, clean or otherwise.

So, to be clear, I don\'t think Curlin is a mediocre horse.  To the contrary, he\'s a very good one.  He goes to a new level when he\'s running on \'full.\'  

I said as much in my pre-Preakness post.  I just didn\'t know whether the Maryland Racing Commission had installed the best possible labs, which cost a small fortune, but my guess now is that they have not.

If we need a Federal presence in horseracing it need not do anything more than provide a national lab that can test samples after the fact.  That way a guy who gets 20 positives will have to answer in a tougher court as opposed to snaking his way out of it, state by state.

[fkach]

I have no clue at as to whether Curlin ran \"natural or not\", but his speed figures have been remarkably consistent despite running against progressively tougher horses and getting progressively tougher trips. I find nothing shocking about such a lightly raced horse hitting a new top yesterday after getting more seasoning in the Derby. I wouldn\'t/didn\'t play him at that price because IMO he needed a new top to win, but I\'m not suprised he ran one.  

I know there\'s a lot of talk about all these negative tops etc... But as I said the other day, a REAL LOT of those figures weren\'t legit to begin with because they were earned with favorable pace, bias, trip scenarios, on slop etc... So they weren\'t so likely to be duplicated for that reason. The stats are a little better for the fast figures earned under honest conditons.

[big ant]

I haven\'t been here in awhile, but I really feel a need to say that: Borel is a great rider, but I think he may have blown it when he turned his head to see Curlin next to him. It just seems to me that SS lost some of his action when he did that; pumping and driving forward is the best way to the wire in my opinion. Looking to your right at that point made absolutely no sense. The rider lost his rhythm , and the horse seemed to skip a beat as a result. Borel gets full credit for saving ground in the Derby, and he gets full credit for cutting the corner just inside of Curlin yesterday, but he loses it for that boneheaded, sophmoric look to his right. Sorry folks but that was a tight race and there is no room for such stupid antics at that crucial point of a stretch duel.It really pains me for having to criticize Borel, who I cashed many a ticket with throughout the years, but maybe this is why Gomez and Prado, and in years past Bailey were reached out for in these classic races.

[big ant]

I don\'t see how HS can get that loose in the Belmont. It seems to me that Curlin can show speed if he has to, and as much as I dislike Albarado, he ain\'t gonna let Pino run loose in that race.

[miff]

BiG Ant,

Understand your opinion on Borel\'s ride. Take a careful isolated look at the total ride given by Albarado,Borel made the mistake you noted, Albarado made three.


Mike

[big ant]

Borel was inside early in the Preakness as well. I don\'t think the rail was bad at all

[big ant]

I agree with you. I really dislike Albarado, but I feel that Borel\'s may come at an especially critical point.(no time to recover). I felt that HS ran on well when Borel got back in rhythm.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I need to see a quality replay, but these are the facts:

1. The Jocks steered clear of the rail most of the day. Note the Derby stretch drive.

2. Borel\'s Stonehouse ran a rail trip as the 2nd choice and became decidedly leg weary in the stretch.

3. Thereafter Borel stated to the media that he did not think the rail was good.

4. The horses that ran well down at the rail were favorites or horses sitting upon big races.

Interpretation: The rail was not ideal. I did not see Street Sense on the rail early and if he was it was in stark contrast to Borels statements regarding the rail. If Street Sense did linger on the rail early I would consider that a factor in why he was beaten on the line.

TGraph is not going to generally take much of a stand on the rail issue. Rail Chaos is not amenable to creating accurate figures. Nevertheless they do note a clearly obvious rail at time. Pimlicos rail was mid obvious, but I\'m satisfied it was not the place to be.

Thanks for the heads up on Street Sense getting down in there. I\'ll have to check it out.

big ant Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Borel was inside early in the Preakness as well. I
> don\'t think the rail was bad at all

[big ant]

I believe Borel couldn\'t get in immediately, I think he dropped back then edged in to about the 1 and a half path, and I think that is where he stood until he tipped out into the stretch so He wasn\'t sitting completely in, but very close to it. The guy is an automatic ground saver. Personally I think he thought he had the race won, but when he saw the piece outside of him he freaked, and his horse lost his action because of it.