Preakness Revisited

[MO]

Alm, excellent post.


I offered 2-1 that Curlin would be off the board. No takers. (Same with Great Hunter in Derby, BTW) Had I bet the race, I\'d have been really pissed off. And if anyone had taken my offer, I\'d be in the poor house. But thankfully, I came out of the race unscathed.

Gary Stevens made an excellent point that Borel ran out of goggles in the stretch.
When you get beat a nose, little things seem to make a big difference.

I expect a lot of Borel (and Pino) bashing to come. However, I\'ve already gone on record as not being thrilled with either. These are no longer the days of Baeza, Cordero, Pincay, Velasquez, McCarron, Day, Bailey etc.

Because of the way Curlin finished, I was looking for a buzzer, but found none. Curlin lost more ground than Street Sense and will get a figure much better than the outcome looked. What will the Preakness figure be? That is the question. I\'m guessing a neg 1.

Hard Spun ran a great race and had exactly the position I predicted as did SS. (Anytime Silver Charm wants to play me heads up in no limit poker, I\'m ready!).

FFC, as I proclaimed is nothing more than a sprinter. CQ had the wrong running style and KOTR surely regressed further, also as predicted.

BTW, Curlin is a really nice horse. But he did not blow by SS and I doubt either can win the Belmont - if either runs.

Hard Spun is done for a while and I doubt you\'ll see him in races like the Travers, Super Derby or BC classic. He\'s clearly a miler.

Great call by Tom Durkin and a decent job by the replacement bugler Bill School.

[big ant]

Borel tipped out off the stretch turn but, sneaked inside of Albarado, and went by him pretty easily, and I really don\'t think that he expected to see him again later in the stretch. Cal was getting into his horse pretty good with the stick inside the 1/16th pole, and SS was really just running evenly, but evenly may have been enough,it is when he turned to his right to see Curlin that he stopped driving and pumping for about a stride or so, and I really think it may have cost him. I think theat SS is a horse that needs to be kept to a drive , and he may have a tendancy to loaf on the lead. I don\'t think this horse was late, nor do I think he is knocked out.

[big ant]

Perhaps Borel\'s surprise is testimony to your theory, because I thought he was going to jump out of his stirrups when he saw that piece outside him.

[Perfect Drift]

Hard Spun... if there ever was horse ready to win a $1,000,000 race as a joke, watch him in a five-horse Haskell against no one, a la Lion Heart and War Emblem.  The Belmont is a waste of time... nobody cares. Jazil, Lemon Drop Kid, Sarava, Editors Note, Colonial Affair...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz    Go to Monmouth for a G1 race that will be no more than a workout instead of a tough, dicey 12 panels at BEL.

[jmetro]

Perfect Drift Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hard Spun... if there ever was horse ready to win
> a $1,000,000 race as a joke, watch him in a
> five-horse Haskell against no one, a la Lion Heart
> and War Emblem.  The Belmont is a waste of time...
> nobody cares. Jazil, Lemon Drop Kid, Sarava,
> Editors Note, Colonial Affair...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz  
> Go to Monmouth for a G1 race that will be no more
> than a workout instead of a tough, dicey 12 panels
> at BEL.

My take as well.  Breeder\'s Cup Mile, on the dirt, at Monmouth would certainly seem to be right up this horse\'s alley as well.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I watched the gallop out and cannot argue with your analysis.

Its fairly evident Borel did not expect to see another horse on his hip and it nearly petrified him. He won\'t make that mistake again but it may have cost Street Sense the Triple Crown.

I was betting to beat Street Sense but needed Hard Spun to do it to make any money. I wish Street Sense had pulled it off, but if he doesnt run in the Belmont I will root against him from here in.

The Belmont counts big points in my book. If one of the top 3 win it that horse has the inside edge on HOTY.


big ant Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Borel tipped out off the stretch turn but, sneaked
> inside of Albarado, and went by him pretty easily,
> and I really don\'t think that he expected to see
> him again later in the stretch. Cal was getting
> into his horse pretty good with the stick inside
> the 1/16th pole, and SS was really just running
> evenly, but evenly may have been enough,it is when
> he turned to his right to see Curlin that he
> stopped driving and pumping for about a stride or
> so, and I really think it may have cost him. I
> think theat SS is a horse that needs to be kept to
> a drive , and he may have a tendancy to loaf on
> the lead. I don\'t think this horse was late, nor
> do I think he is knocked out.

[Sandreadis]

Mo, Hard Spun clearly a miler? Couldn\'t disagree more. 3w,3w win at 9f at TP. Pino had him flying into a 45.3 half,1:09 and change 6F. Durkin called it an aggressive move to the lead. Waaayyyy too early and fast a move.This was a disaster pace scenario for HS with FFC and XCH. There\'s a reason Pino has 4,000+  wins in Maryland because he surely can\'t ride with the big boys.
What about his Deby race makes you think this guys a miler? It took one of the greatest trips maybe ever to beat HS that day.
Anybody else think this horse is a miler??

[jbelfior]

Borel never switched the stick to get Street Sense back to his right lead. He may have done this because 1) he thought he had it won anyway or 2) he turned back into a pumpkin.

Final Observation: not sure if this has been mentioned yet...Curlin\'s multiple moves and incredible surge at the finish. Two facts are for certain here: #1) the race was at Pimlico and #2) Asmussen trains.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[fkach]

I think his optimal distance may be shorter than 10F, but his races in the Derby and Preakness were good enough for me to believe he could win at those distances if he rated and moved at the appropriate time. He can certainly beat less that the elite horses at those distances.

[alm]

Unless Mario Pino admits he moved the horse aggressively, as opposed to the horse taking off on his own, we are stuck with the fact that the horse moved early.

In my pre-race post I reasoned that SS connections would worry most about not letting HS get away from them, fearing him the most.  SS was back in the pack in the Preakness, but a lot closer to the leaders this time and I think Borel moved somewhat prematurely himself when he saw HS take off.

SS beat HS pretty much the same as he did in the Derby, but not even Nafzger, watching the stretch run, thought Curlin was a threat once SS went by.  SS was fatigued as most horses are at that point in a race and continued to slow as he approached the finish.  Curlin did not slow down as abruptly because he had a second wind...I don\'t really care whether or not anyone else thinks it was blood doping induced, but I do.

We don\'t need uniform drug rules in the sport as much as we need uniform drug testing.  It won\'t change the outcome of any single race, but it will help catch the bad guys and make what they do a Federal crime.  It stands to reason, if we can bet interstate we should be protected from fraud at all levels.  

Whether or not you think the Preakness was a tainted race, we know for a fact that the super-trainers spend far too much time ducking legal restraints state-by-state.  That was a positive TP got last year and there have been many Asmussen positives.

How many of you know \'Silent\' Tom Smith was ruled off for 5 years for drugging horses a few years after Seabuiscuit\'s heroics?

Nothing will change until guys like this lose their livlihoods forever.

PS: HS is already more than a miler by definition...he won convincingly at 9 panels.  If he stays sound he will likely beat horses of this caliber up to 10 furlongs at 4 years and up (please remember horses like Beau Purple, Gun Bow, etc. beating Kelso with some regularity.)

[fkach]

\"Unless Mario Pino admits he moved the horse aggressively, as opposed to the horse taking off on his own, we are stuck with the fact that the horse moved early. \"

Watch the replay again closely. Look closely at Pino\'s hand action. At almost the exact time HS started closing the gap, Pino started scrubbing on his neck a little more aggressively.


He\'s not going to admit he made a mistake.

[alm]

I think you are probably right.  It reminds one of the statement Stewart Elliott made before Smarty Jones\' Belmont, saying he didn\'t think it mattered that he had rarely ridden at Belmont.  

Then he put Smarty Jones into a drive halfway through the race with 6 furlongs to go.  Halfway through a race at most tracks that\'s a quarter mile shorter and a quality horse only has to sustain a 4 furlong move.

Smarty got fatigued far too soon, as a result.

HS did not have to go to the lead when he did in the Preakness.  It left him with too much to do.

[miff]

x

[miff]

For all those who saw Curlin \"surge\", take a close look at SS \"coming back\" to Curlin the last 40 yards.When the front horse is slowing it LOOKS like Curlin is surging but he was just digging in at the same pace for the last part.

Can\'t really tell if SS was on his wrong lead late as he usually is at the end of races, but if so, that may have caused him the race.

Mike

[miff]

\"He just got outrun the last part a little bit,\" Nafzger said, adding that Street Sense \"backs out\" of the bridle when he makes the lead.

\"He pulled up a little bit the last 40 yards,\" Borel said, \"but I can\'t take anything away from the winner.