HOLLYWOOD PICK SIX --EVERYONE TAKE ONE RACE

[Dana666]

The Pick Six looks rather challenging, but for 5 million (approximately) on a Wednesday, why not take a swing???  

LETS\'S TRY THIS: Everyone post their best race analysis, a race your are most likely to win, and we\'ll line up the consensus.

I have to say at this point, I don\'t have any race I feel completely sure of, but the race I\'d likely be best in is the 5th -- 3 yr. olds starter allowance on grass.

My top selection is Unusual Suspect (#1). He seemed to mature greatly from this winter and really is a nice-looking individual; I think he can get a decent stalking trip inside and may prove too much for these modest foes late. Two other\'s I\'d also look at in that race are (#2) Tycoon Dolby --he LOVED the grass and really relaxed, something he had never done before, in his Bay Meadows maiden breaker -- he might be able to handle the step up. (#8) Bernasconi had a better than looked race to me; he encountered much trouble, just as he was making his run and might be a classy sort, I wouldn\'t want to leave out either Paddy Gallagher. Lone speed fans might opt for Robbos Courage (Scratched out of a stake on the main sunday for this?). He\'ll be loose I imagine, but I\'ll probably try and beat him.

Ones I don\'t like much: (5)Yankee Bay -- hasn\'t really impressed me much, a grinding sort.Knighthood(3)- will love the added ground, but I\'m not sold he\'s a grass runner -- Parko (6) -- fluid moving sort just forgets to ever run fast -- he exits a key race and is facing the weakest foes ever, but I\'ll let him beat me. Grey Rover (7) Way too one-paced for me.

[miff]

Dana,

You being a So Cal follower,can you tell me your opinion of the inside paths at the current Hollywood meet.I am told the rail was the place to be early on in the meet.

Thanks,

Mike


P.S.I\'m fooling with breaking my cherry on synthetic because of the carryover. If I do, I\'ll post the 7th race which looks to me to be a potentially obvious spot to single.

[Dana666]

Ok, well, the inside paths generally haven\'t been that great lately. In the Racing Digest, they actually listed a strong outside bias several days of this meet, not so much in the beginning though, so I don\'t really know what to tell you. I guess what I\'d say is I wouldn\'t worry about an outside post at all, and there certainly isn\'t an inside bias, so just look for the best horse. But I will say that deep closers are at a disadvantage (not like Keeneland!). They just don\'t seem to be able to rally from that far back at any distance, sprint to routes.

I\'m really curious to hear your 7th race analysis. I wish I thought it was so obvious. Just remember even if your horse is even money, the pick six won\'t be -- that\'s for sure. One of the few days you can make a hundred grand WITH an even money shot!

[miff]

Dana,

Without seeing speed figs, Idiot Proof has a substatial edge, imo, having faced and beaten several legit stakes runners in Fla and Cali.He looks to be main speed but I can see that he does not break too well.Set a vicious pace with much better in last, excellent spacing, live rider, cold trainer(UGH), never ran on synthetic but reportedly working well.

Pick Vic beat maiden claimers on the same day(4/8)with a good but wide trip and 4 more pounds. May have a better fig than IP but these are tougher, he\'s never gone back.

Shem, off the cut back angle from last two,is the only other threat I see.



If Idiot Proof breaks sharp, I think he\'s gone and I\'ll single him if I play.


Good Luck,

Mike

[Dana666]

The name also fits for a good play for ME -- IDIOT PROOF -- even I can\'t screw that one up!

[MO]

Can I take the race that won\'t be fixed by drug use or buzzers or some other form of cheating?

If you think that jockeys don\'t bet the pick six, I have a great Julie Krone story for you and I witnessed it first hand.

There was a decent carryover at Belmont one day back when I worked for R Dutrow Sr.

Tony Graell was aboard a crippled piece of crap in the 1st leg that I was hotwalking. He won. Longest shot on the board.

Julie was on a Schulhoffer horse at 8-1 in the last leg. As she crossed the wire, she rose up out of the saddle as if she had won the KY Derby.

She and Graell split the ticket. Thats when she had that guy called \"Snake\" as her agent.

And this is not the only time I\'ve witnessed JK giddy over a bet she cashed.

Another time she was actually \"skipping\" into the jocks room after being beaten on an odds on fav proclaiming \"I got the exacta! I Got the exacta!\" like a 4 year old kid who just got a lollipop from the dentist. Clerk of scales was Tony Pellegrino, who just shook his head.

[Uncle Buck]

I can\'t play Wednesday but in watching all the Hollywood replay shows - I can tell you only about two horses from 75 turf races so far have closed from the 1/8th pole to the wire to get up and win - maybe a few more but not many. If you\'re a length clear at the 1/8th pole - you\'re home. That grass is like astroturf man...

That might have something to do with the fact that it hasn\'t rained out here since February...

Good luck! Bring that sucker down!

[Dana666]

You know of what you speak! Then again, do you think the Stock Market is Legit either??? Al Capone once said he\'d take the track to the market any day.

Most of the juice trainers in So. Cal. are on notice lately -- they\'ve been laying low -- at least for the time being. Check their records if you don\'t believe me.

I can\'t believe most jocks are smart enough to fix anything -- too much fasting and purging, no sugar for the brain. I love the story though.

[cubfan0316]

good point, but you forgot 1 thing. cheat the market and go directly to jail. no warnings or 30 day suspensions.

[MO]

Dana, that\'s the edge jockey\'s have over novice players, or in the case of cetain TV hosts who, when confronted with VIDEO replay - still deny that a race has been fixed.

Not that you fall into either catagory, rest assured.

Always remember this: if you are crazy enough to ride horses at 40mph every day, there are other \"risks\" that pale in comparison.

[marcus]

Dana - overall it looks like a vintage garden state card , pretty dull- really nothing to write home about . the  3rd and the 5th race look best imo .
for my hollywood online contest in race -6- i went with the # 1a Headcoach (poe only) ,in the other 2 races :

hol-3- *#1 Behind the Magic  + #2 Dusty Roster & #6 Casual Thunder .

hol-5- *#1 Unusual Suspect   + #4 Robbos Courage & #7 Grey Rover ( 2nd lasix ).

( * = top pick )

best of luck wednesday in so cal , but i wouldn\'t be surprised if it carry\'s over again...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Dana, for what its worth, I\'ll put my two cents in regarding Hollywood\'s 4th Wednesday.

The race is for 2YO Filly 40K maiden claimers.

I think theres 5 horses that could win. Obviously too many to use in a pick six but the horse I favor is Stichit.

I would also not be surprised to see Clever Lady run very well. I know Baze gave her up, but I like the hot riding apprentice and weight never hurts. Lots of angles with this one.

I wouldn\'t bet this race, but chasing a pick six you can\'t pick and choose.



Cheaper 2YO\'s are quite a challengeDana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The Pick Six looks rather challenging, but for 5
> million (approximately) on a Wednesday, why not
> take a swing???  
>
> LETS\'S TRY THIS: Everyone post their best race
> analysis, a race your are most likely to win, and
> we\'ll line up the consensus.
>
> I have to say at this point, I don\'t have any race
> I feel completely sure of, but the race I\'d likely
> be best in is the 5th -- 3 yr. olds starter
> allowance on grass.
>
> My top selection is Unusual Suspect (#1). He
> seemed to mature greatly from this winter and
> really is a nice-looking individual; I think he
> can get a decent stalking trip inside and may
> prove too much for these modest foes late. Two
> other\'s I\'d also look at in that race are (#2)
> Tycoon Dolby --he LOVED the grass and really
> relaxed, something he had never done before, in
> his Bay Meadows maiden breaker -- he might be able
> to handle the step up. (#8) Bernasconi had a
> better than looked race to me; he encountered much
> trouble, just as he was making his run and might
> be a classy sort, I wouldn\'t want to leave out
> either Paddy Gallagher. Lone speed fans might opt
> for Robbos Courage (Scratched out of a stake on
> the main sunday for this?). He\'ll be loose I
> imagine, but I\'ll probably try and beat him.
>
> Ones I don\'t like much: (5)Yankee Bay -- hasn\'t
> really impressed me much, a grinding
> sort.Knighthood(3)- will love the added ground,
> but I\'m not sold he\'s a grass runner -- Parko (6)
> -- fluid moving sort just forgets to ever run fast
> -- he exits a key race and is facing the weakest
> foes ever, but I\'ll let him beat me. Grey Rover
> (7) Way too one-paced for me.

[ronwar]

He still could win but...FYI per RacingDigest

7th RACE
IDIOT PROOF will be a very short price here in the feature, but it is
worth noting that we have seen a change in him in the last two months. He
seems to be striking himself as he gets tired late. That means he is not
traveling in harmony between his front legs and hind legs. There is one sure
way to see it in the paddock on Wednesday afternoon. Check his hind legs
for any patches either right above the hind hooves or on the inside of his
hocks, or otherwise hind knees. Check him out and adjust accordingly. I
think he may be vulnerable in the latter stages. Digest Scale ** (04/08)

[miff]

Thanks, Ronwar.

Knocks on horses always an important part of the equation for me. FYI,Flores said that IP worked well last week on the cushion track. Goood Luck.

Mike

[Dana666]

I\'m afraid of Jack the Duffer in that race. I know his numbers are much slower, but he won so easily last time, and I think he can track outside and get a good trip. Monteleone is one of the upcoming \"super\" trainers in So. Cal and that he moves this horse up in class makes me wonder. I\'m not narrowing much in that race: using 1,2,4,6,7 hopefully to lock the race up. If I narrow, I\'ll use 4,6,7.