Relying on the studies described in the Preakness commentary, and presuming my math is right, there was only a 5.7% chance that a) Street Sense would not back up more than one point, and b) Hard Spun would not back up by more than four points from their respective Derby efforts. Further, that 5.7% chance may actually overstate the chances of both occurrences because 1) as the Preakness analysis noted, the studies lumped all horses with the negative effort in prior start together; it did not segregate those, like Street Sense and Hard Spun, which were coming back on short rest and thus were more likely to react significantly, and 2) the effect of the hot pace on Hard Spun. Isn’t it more likely, then, as a pure statistical matter, that both of those horses ran 2-3 points slower than these figures indicate? And further, why isn’t it far more likely that Curlin, who fires four zeros right out of the box and is now racing for the third time in five weeks, and for the first time ever on short rest, pairs his zero rather than jumps out of his skin?
