And in the final chapter of the Holiest of the Holy books, written by prophets and seers of visions, it is said that in the end after running very fast without adequate time to rest and recover, Pegasus and his kind will reacte to those strenous efforts and will fall from grace with the Bounce. So sayeth the seers.
In 2005, four horses came to the Derby off Specatular Efforts. They were,
Bellamy Road -4, Four weeks rest
Bandini -3, Three weeks rest
Afleet Alex -2, Three weeks Rest and
Greeleys Galaxy -2, Four weeks rest
When the race was over the Fab Four were nowhere to be seen and Giacomo ran a smooth even paced race to win at 50-1. The Book of Rapture and Bounce prophesied that the Fab Four would not bless their backers and it was so.
The Righteous play this Belmont may be to toss Curlin the King. He ran a number in the Preakness that is generally reactive and he ran very hard in the later stages of that race to pull it off. Curlin comes back on 3 weeks rest to run in the most demanding race he will face in his career.
However, Curlin has already broken the mold in many respects. By observation he is blooming at Elmont. The wise play is to not buck the Book of Bounce with a short odds favorite, but I\'m getting the sense this horse can break some more trends.
The filly is an interesting addition, but she\'s a filly, and not as fast as the colts despite the weight concession. She\'s also only attempted 9 panels. They may believe she is bred to go on and on, but shes certainly never been there, nor been as far as the boys either. I like her pedigree, but I\'ve seen plenty of A.p.Indy\'s that dont want to run past 9 poles also.
Four horses intrigue me. Wild Guy, C.P. West, Slew\'s Tizzy and Tiago. The pace of the race will be a factor but these four have shown enough in respective races to merit careful consideration.
Of all the horses running, Slew\'s Tizzy is the horse with the pedigree that is the most sneaky for back breeding to win at this distance.
There really isn\'t a horse that can be tossed from the exotics, let alone the win spot with the possible exception of the filly. (Same as it ever was.) However, in this case I give Pletcher the credit for daring greatly.
Its a good race and is going to require very careful bets to win.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chucktacular Bid:
>
> You have been in top form lately, but do not get
> too wrapped up in \"politics\".
> Quite possible that Anderson/Gomez think that a
> fresh RTR is a more likely
> Belmont winner than a hard spent Hard Spun, and I
> tend to agree with them.
>
> Other comments (mostly repeats):
>
> Curlin: Albarado 4/5 no value, wins easily or
> bounces like a superball.
> Appearance wise, have always been a sucker for a
> flashy chestnut and this is a
> good looking critter.
>
> Hard Spun: Tired Now.
>
> RTR: Do not think she was ever pointed towards
> this race, TAP looks to take
> advantage of 2 vulnerable favorites and a short
> field.
>
> Tiago: Has a shot off TG #s and race spacing, but
> how disgusting will it be when
> Iron Mike Smith saves no ground in a short field
> at 1- 1/2 miles?
>
> Imwildncrazy: Lets see. NW3LT. Both career wins at
> CRC, the original synthetic
> surface. Non winner as a 3YO. Never won a stake.
> $17,000 yearling running
> against horses who have changed hands for
> $millions. As fast as Tiago, but like
> Tiago will offer no value in a short field.
>
> Digger: Thank God Lawrence the Plumber put his
> tomato can back on the shelf.
>
> At first glance, looking at leaving Curlin and HS
> out of P4s and P6s.
