Belmont Random Observations

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

1. The Big Sandy....Why so little respect for the track itself that most of the field hasn\'t felt it necessary to work over Big Sandy? Additionally, no horse has worked particularly well over it for this race. The Big Sandy can have a lot to say about which horses will have a chance.

Horses given an edge over the Big Sandy:

Cee\'s Tizzy
Tiago
Rags to Riches
C.P. West

2. Moss Pace Figures. My God are these the worst indicators ever produced? Theres no logical continuity to them AT ALL. What a retard.

3. Hard Spun was my pre race favorite, but the circumstances surrouding him are sufficiently negative to perhaps move past him. Still deliberating.

4. Curlin. Steven Crist says hes the major play at even money. Saw no reason for him to bounce in the Preakness, but did not expect such a visually impressive race. Now bounce is a possibility, but see absolutely no reason why a horse running regularly and running well should break down as implied by Alm. Maybe he thinks hes trying to beat Kelso again. Maybe he is, Oh, the nostalgia! If Curlin is vulnerable its going to be because he is even money, reactive coming off a top on short rest and has shown no affinity for the track. Probably worth a bet against, but could understand using him as a key as well. Its a matter of personal theory.

5. Really appreciated TGJB\'s Post interview. Thought he was unusually assertive. Maybe he understands what makes good copy. He was very high on Tiago. There are lots of positive angles with that one. That Derby gallop out was a thing to behold.

[alm]

It has nothing to do with Kelso.  Nothing to do with nostalgia.

Curlin reminds me of Stage Door Johnny.

The last time I made a call like this was Charismatic a week before the Belmont.

The last similar call made by another person was Jerry Brown\'s commentary on Barbaro before the Preakness.

Lightly raced 2yo\'s with spectacular ability are lightly raced for a reason.  That\'s the basis of the call.

[fkach]

>2. Moss Pace Figures. My God are these the worst indicators ever produced? Theres no logical continuity to them AT ALL. What a retard<

If you understood them, you wouldn\'t feel that way.  Perhaps you should make a little effort.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

alm Wrote:
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> It has nothing to do with Kelso.  Nothing to do
> with nostalgia.
>
> Curlin reminds me of Stage Door Johnny.

Granting that Stage Door Johnny had a short career, he did Win the Belmont

 
> The last time I made a call like this was
> Charismatic a week before the Belmont.

The 1999 Belmont has fond Memories for me as well. I don\'t think this board has a recorded history going back that far but I\'ll check. At the time anyone could log in and use any different \"hider\" name. Identity theft also occurred under posts. It was a very entertaining time and in truth I think I began the identity theft posts. It was good fun, but all things must pass and shortly thereafter TGraph decided to make the board \"Accountable\" by issuing accounts only to verifiable emails. Long story short someone started a post about a character going by \"Chuckles the Clown\" holding a handful of pari mutual tickets Against Lemon Drop Kid in the Belmont. I was very high on Lemon Drop Kid and I posted a little vignette about Lemon Drop Winning and Chuckles dropping dead upon the apron, tickets scattering in the wind. That Belmont is now history, but with registered nicks suddenly becoming mandatory, I resurrected Chuckles the Clown.

> The last similar call made by another person was
> Jerry Brown\'s commentary on Barbaro before the
> Preakness.

Jerry was right on with Barbaro in that Preakness. But it wasn\'t a call strictly upon a lightly raced schedule.
>
> Lightly raced 2yo\'s with spectacular ability are
> lightly raced for a reason.  That\'s the basis of
> the call.

As indicated above, lightly raced is a critique. Its pretty clear that Curlin was a lightly raced horse going into the Derby and Preakness. But Jerry\'s analysis had a lot more to it than mere light racing. Where we now stand is that Curlin was unraced as a two year old, has run improving races and is running improving races on short rest. Compare and contrast with Circular Way or Barbaro. Want a hint? \"Time between races\".

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I just did an overnight study and hes either made HUGE arithmatic errors or hes adjusting them. I\'m not going to go into detail why he\'s wrong but I\'ll give you a hint. Check the \"pace progression\" comment line. When they run the Belmont just remember what he said. His analysis is based upon the whacky numbers assigned:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/85633.html

fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >2. Moss Pace Figures. My God are these the worst
> indicators ever produced? Theres no logical
> continuity to them AT ALL. What a retard<
>
> If you understood them, you wouldn\'t feel that
> way.  Perhaps you should make a little effort.

[alm]

I realize Jerry Brown had a strong point-of-view about Barbaro that was based in astute observations of his form.  My own take on it was based on my feeling that this horse had condylar issues as a 2yo and was lightly raced to avoid the extra pounding that would have broken him down sooner.

I\'m only guessing Stage Door Johnny had a similar problem and that Curlin may fall into this category.  But connections with brilliant soft-boned horses handle them all pretty much the same way and the horses almost all have short compromised careers.

Charismatic may not have fallen into that category, but his sudden form reversal in Kentucky was surely due to the legal and far more permissive pain killing drug use that was permitted there  at the time.

For example, I had a 3yo filly who couldn\'t win in $10,000 claimers in Florida, where painkillers were more tightly controlled, but she became a multiple allowance winner in Kentucky during the summers, 2 years running.  When Charismatic popped to a new level in the Lexington and Derby, then won the Preakness, I announced to my betting buddies he would break down in the Belmont.

Why?

Because he would be running with a lot more pain and was likely to take a bad step at some point in the race.  Nothing illegal was going on in Kentucky and Maryland, but the rules changed in NY.

Personally I think Curlin is the Lantz Armstrong of 3yo horses and is likely to run well in the Belmont.  However, I think he has distance issues in his pedigree and he is very likely to be a soft-boned horse.  He might not fire at the level he did in Maryland and his bone issues,if I am right, should show up relatively soon, if not in the Belmont.  

Most of all, regarding the Belmont outcome, TAP has his NYC and NJ strings humming right now, suggesting he has the rules firmly in his grip there...the filly may be very hard to handle today.

HS might be the cleanest runner in the race today, but may not get the distance.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Alm your condylar treatise was appreciated and carefully noted. I have no doubt that Barbaro had issues that his connections didn\'t really want to talk about.

Charismatic\'s meteoric rise did surprise me some, but I never made a drugs on connotation. He ran in everything is my recollection, but that was the end of the \"Lukas Era\".

Regarding Curlin having issues, I think he did have a setback as a young horse, but since then he has ran so well and so often its clear they aren\'t protecting something now. If he gets beat I\'m guessing it will be combo of regression and track disaffinity.

As for Pletcher doing well in NY Stakes I\'d just point out hes still running a Goose Egg today. How\'d you like Keyed Entry taking Bordonaro out like that...lol

Early Belmont Odds are

Wild Guy 6-1
Tiago    9-2
Curlin   8-5
CP West  9-1
Slews Tizzy 14-1
Hard Spun 5-1
Rags to Riches 7-2

Time for a little bet readjustment...

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I realize Jerry Brown had a strong point-of-view
> about Barbaro that was based in astute
> observations of his form.  My own take on it was
> based on my feeling that this horse had condylar
> issues as a 2yo and was lightly raced to avoid the
> extra pounding that would have broken him down
> sooner.
>
> I\'m only guessing Stage Door Johnny had a similar
> problem and that Curlin may fall into this
> category.  But connections with brilliant
> soft-boned horses handle them all pretty much the
> same way and the horses almost all have short
> compromised careers.
>
> Charismatic may not have fallen into that
> category, but his sudden form reversal in Kentucky
> was surely due to the legal and far more
> permissive pain killing drug use that was
> permitted there  at the time.
>
> For example, I had a 3yo filly who couldn\'t win in
> $10,000 claimers in Florida, where painkillers
> were more tightly controlled, but she became a
> multiple allowance winner in Kentucky during the
> summers, 2 years running.  When Charismatic popped
> to a new level in the Lexington and Derby, then
> won the Preakness, I announced to my betting
> buddies he would break down in the Belmont.
>
> Why?
>
> Because he would be running with a lot more pain
> and was likely to take a bad step at some point in
> the race.  Nothing illegal was going on in
> Kentucky and Maryland, but the rules changed in
> NY.
>
> Personally I think Curlin is the Lantz Armstrong
> of 3yo horses and is likely to run well in the
> Belmont.  However, I think he has distance issues
> in his pedigree and he is very likely to be a
> soft-boned horse.  He might not fire at the level
> he did in Maryland and his bone issues,if I am
> right, should show up relatively soon, if not in
> the Belmont.  
>
> Most of all, regarding the Belmont outcome, TAP
> has his NYC and NJ strings humming right now,
> suggesting he has the rules firmly in his grip
> there...the filly may be very hard to handle
> today.
>
> HS might be the cleanest runner in the race today,
> but may not get the distance.

[marcus]

5-1 on HS sounds appealing , i\'m calling for a dead heat for the win spot w/ HS and the Filly . the big fav\'s 4th consecutive race on short rest - you got to be kidding , there\'s a barn that imho needs more horses ... nice to see barbaro remembered but don\'t forget old mr nickerson or johnny horton !

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I don\'t remember Johnny Horton, but I remember old Mr. Nickerson. His heart failed fighting, Tafel and Nafzger should pass so courageously.

Another Pletcher heavy favorite bites the turf.

marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 5-1 on HS sounds appealing , i\'m calling for a
> dead heat for the win spot w/ HS and the Filly .
> the big fav\'s 4th consecutive race on short rest -
> you got to be kidding , there\'s a barn that imho
> needs more horses ... nice to see barbaro
> remembered but don\'t forget old mr nickerson or
> johnny horton !

[marcus]

ctc2 -i knew you of all people would remember such a courageous horse as old mr nickerson and you\'ll remember johnny horton (and it was a curveball) becouse he was the country / folk singer that held down the stars and stripes with the big hit songs - the battle of new orleans , johnny reb , north to alsaka , got to sink the bismarck , when it\'\'s springtime in alaska and whispering pines . * how about that tueflesberg - very impressive in winning the woody stephens  @ 8-1 ...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Der Teufel is a little more horse than many think. I love Todd Pletcher!

Oh, that johnny horton!


marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ctc2 -i knew you of all people would remember such
> a courageous horse as old mr nickerson and you\'ll
> remember johnny horton (and it was a curveball)
> becouse he was the country / folk singer that held
> down the stars and stripes with the big hit songs
> - johnny reb , north to alsaka , got to sink the
> bismark , when it\'\'s springtime in alaska and
> whispering pines . * how about that tueflesberg -
> very impressive in winning the woody stephens  @
> 8-1 ...

[alm]

As I said on several earlier posts, Curlin and the filly would run their eyeballs out...two hopped up horses...the others didn\'t have a chance.  

If you bet it any other way you still believe in the tooth fairy,Santa Claus and righteous horse trainers.

By the way, who among you know that Silent Tom Smith was barred from racing 5 years after Seabuiscuit\'s last race when he was caught spraying bronchial dialator up a horse\'s snout?

Still think War Admiral was second best?  Street Sense?

[fkach]

You don\'t understand them and/or how they are supposed to be used. Trust me on this. I understand them as well as anyone. I\'m not going to explain it to you because it would take too long and this is not the place for it.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

lol

I\'ll tell you who also doesn\'t understand them...Randy Moss.

Read again how he said the race would develop and then tell me he was right and I was wrong.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/85633.html

Those numbers are not functional. Use them if you wish. He mentioned the winner had a chance. He picked three horses. Every skirt in the grandstand was holding tickets on one of them. But thats not the point. The point is his numbers are supposed to reflect the pace and they certainly did not and I was on record before the race that they would not.

Saying this in the kindest manner, Don\'t waste my time.

didfkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You don\'t understand them and/or how they are
> supposed to be used. Trust me on this. I
> understand them as well as anyone. I\'m not going
> to explain it to you because it would take too
> long and this is not the place for it.

[fkach]

What you are saying is that Moss did a poor job of handicapping the race.

What I am saying is that you don\'t understand the figures.

Feel free to conact me privately if you want to understand the information being supplied and why it\'s very useful and functional. Let\'s just keep the conversation off line where it belongs.