TG Figures for 2007 Belmont

[richiebee]

Chuck of Gold:

    Chuckles, I think you\'ve worn everybody down, and are in danger of
committing the terrible sin of responding to your own posts, which as you
yourself have pointed out, is in poor form.

    You want to \"ambush\" her in the Travers or a later race against colts. If
you think the number for this filly is so inflated, you should be looking
forward to a Coaching Club of America ambush, at much shorter odds.

    I think the powers that be: TGJB, Crist/Beyer and the Men of Rag, should
sponsor a race each year at One Mile and One Half, to be run on Belmont Day,
for 3YO & Up. Give the race a large purse and graded status. Given the ongoing
contraction of traditional dirt racing in America, a race such as this could
probably draw animals from around the world.

    I wonder how much more figure players would rely on a Belmont # if the
commercial figure makers had even just one other 1-1/2 mile race on the same
card to give some direction as to wind, track speed, the effect of shadow on a
drying track, the fact that no horses have traveled on the clubhouse turn for
the entire day, etc.

    The most inconceivable component of the scenario would be that the
Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin of figure making would ever agree or
collaborate in this or any other joint venture. But if they did,in honor of
the downtown domiciles of these enterprises, the race could be called the \"Lower
Manhattan Handicap\".

[TGJB]

Richie-- for many years they ran a starter hcp on Belmont day at 1 1/2 for older horses. It helped confirm that you can\'t tie together the one and two turn races.

CTC-- I love \"self evident.\" Why run the race? You\'re a decent handicapper, stick to things you know something about.

Just so we\'re clear-- my giving RTR the right figure does NOT mean a) I think she will necessarily beat colts in the future, or b) repeat that figure. That is a very big figure for a June 3yo filly, and it will probably take something out of her. I may very well be betting it will.

[Silver Charm]

CtC wrote,

>when pedigrees are more geared towards shorter distances

How much weighting do you put in your own figures for this calculation?

Also I seem to remember you mentioning when you calculated Pace Figures you assessed how hard the horse was being restrained by the grip of the jockey\'s hands and the pressure in his boots.

[basket777]

I believe from the sheet figures she had  a chance to win. by me thinking she did from the sheet numbers which i use without question i hit a pick 4 ans 3 pick 3\'s tied into those numbers.  so my conclusion is there is little time spent on the who\'s, what\'s and how\'s the number got there. my time is using those numbers to make a plan to win money at the track.  its like work to me. i hire good people let them do there thinking for me use there information to make my business better.  my time is spent in other places than to quetion someone who has proven to me they get it right.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Thanks for the salutation, but it should read Chuck O\' Gold, but the 12 furlong implication did register big with me.

I don\'t respond to my own posts. When I\'m really hot, I merely amend them. I plead guilty to amending up a storm lately. Not sure why this bothers me so. You\'re correct, all I have to do is back my conclusion at the windows when the timing is right, though I\'m not sure the timing will be right against fillies in longer races.

I really don\'t like picking sides against the figures here, but in this case I have to. Add that the final time was slow on a fast day track to my last rant.

Folks like Rags last Belmont fraction in a race where Curlin found some impediments. They like her wide when wide kept her out of the trouble that some of the others inexplicably encountered. Everyone thinks Curlin ran his race because he was game in the stretch.

All that coming home quick indicates is that they ran very slow early.

Lets she them display the courage to run her in the Travers, she\'s game. Then we\'ll see how close to a Negative 2 she can really run. I\'m guessing she\'ll run about a 3.

CtC

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck of Gold:
>
>     Chuckles, I think you\'ve worn everybody down,
> and are in danger of
> committing the terrible sin of responding to your
> own posts, which as you
> yourself have pointed out, is in poor form.
>
>     You want to \"ambush\" her in the Travers or a
> later race against colts. If
> you think the number for this filly is so
> inflated, you should be looking
> forward to a Coaching Club of America ambush, at
> much shorter odds.
>
>     I think the powers that be: TGJB, Crist/Beyer
> and the Men of Rag, should
> sponsor a race each year at One Mile and One Half,
> to be run on Belmont Day,
> for 3YO & Up. Give the race a large purse and
> graded status. Given the ongoing
> contraction of traditional dirt racing in America,
> a race such as this could
> probably draw animals from around the world.
>
>     I wonder how much more figure players would
> rely on a Belmont # if the
> commercial figure makers had even just one other
> 1-1/2 mile race on the same
> card to give some direction as to wind, track
> speed, the effect of shadow on a
> drying track, the fact that no horses have
> traveled on the clubhouse turn for
> the entire day, etc.
>
>     The most inconceivable component of the
> scenario would be that the
> Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin of figure making
> would ever agree or
> collaborate in this or any other joint venture.
> But if they did,in honor of
> the downtown domiciles of these enterprises, the
> race could be called the \"Lower
> Manhattan Handicap\".

[fkach]

\"Just so we\'re clear-- my giving RTR the right figure does NOT mean a) I think she will necessarily beat colts in the future, or b) repeat that figure. That is a very big figure for a June 3yo filly, and it will probably take something out of her. I may very well be betting it will.\"

I don\'t have a problem with the Belmont figure, but I do have a problem with these debates. No one ever wins.

If she runs back to the fast figure in a few months, you will say that it verifies the Belmont. Chuckles will say she was a lightly raced June 3YO filly that developed some more, ran faster at the shorter distance or that you scored the new figure wrong because you used the old one.

If she runs slower, you will say she bounced and Chuckles will say \"I told ya so\".

I think the only solution is to have the debate, form an opinion for yourself, and bet accordingly. When I am not sure, I am always very cautious.

[streetbull]

nice post

[TGJB]

No. The solution is to look at what ALL the horses from the race do, or just to read my original post again and again until you finally realize I made almost no adjustment to the final time. Again, those that only use the winners, and don\'t know how to adjust for wind, are engaged in a conversation that\'s over their heads.

[fkach]

I understood your original post and thought it was very relevant that the Belmont fit nicely with the rest of the day.

However, if you start with the assumption that 1 turn and 2 turn races often don\'t fit together, then add in the fact that there were pace and distance issues to at least consider, you can\'t totally discount the possibility that the race was slow for \"all the horses\" relative to their norms. The fact that it fit together nicely with the one turn races if you made it faster could have been an accident and not a matter of accuracy.

I doubt that\'s what happened, but I don\'t think it\'s a possibility that can be totally eliminated. No one has made a good case that the race should be slower though (certainly not CTC).

From my perspective, she beat a very solid colt despite spotting him significant ground and they seperated themselves from the rest of the field while coming home extremely fast. That screams and shouts that she ran a lifetime top no matter what the speed of the race. That\'s the obvious part that seems to escape CTC.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Everyone says shes hickory. The Belmont pace was slow as evidenced by how quick she came home. Theres no reason why that race should knock her out.

I\'m confident she will never repeat the number she was assigned in the Belmont again. I think it likely she\'ll win Grade I\'s vs. fillies at 10 furlongs while not approaching that Belmont figure again.

However the possibility does exist she will catch a small field of fillies she beats handily and be assigned a whopping figure upon comparison to the other horses even though the time of the race pales in comparison to other races on the subject card. Its happened before. It could happen again. If it happens I will point it out. However I will go on record right now with a guarantee that Rags will not only never pair her Belmont Figure vs. Colts, she will never pair it vs fillies either. How can someone have such confidence you ask? I\'m confident because the Belmont Stakes was misfigured by a large degree. I have whats referred to in some circles as \"cushion\". Actually its the deepest cushion in thoroughbred racing.

I\'ll take Richiebeebeebee\'s advice for now, but the day will come when I will put on a very public gloating exhibition. I\'m preparing to gloat like hell. In fact...I\'m gloating already.

Everyone knew she was a well bred filly that could surprise at about 12-1. It was her lucky day. Maybe she can get lucky next time?.................

fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Just so we\'re clear-- my giving RTR the right
> figure does NOT mean a) I think she will
> necessarily beat colts in the future, or b) repeat
> that figure. That is a very big figure for a June
> 3yo filly, and it will probably take something out
> of her. I may very well be betting it will.\"
>
> I don\'t have a problem with the Belmont figure,
> but I do have a problem with these debates. No one
> ever wins.
>
> If she runs back to the fast figure in a few
> months, you will say that it verifies the Belmont.
> Chuckles will say she was a lightly raced June 3YO
> filly that developed some more, ran faster at the
> shorter distance or that you scored the new figure
> wrong because you used the old one.
>
> If she runs slower, you will say she bounced and
> Chuckles will say \"I told ya so\".
>
> I think the only solution is to have the debate,
> form an opinion for yourself, and bet accordingly.
> When I am not sure, I am always very cautious.

[richiebee]

Riva The Clown:

      Just to mention that the BeeBeeBee reference is not lost on me. Any
mention of the 1972 Preakness winner brings back memories of his trainer Del
Carroll. One morning Mr. Carroll went out to the track at Keeneland on the
stakes winner Sportin Life. Sportin Life found his way back to the barn alone
that morning.

      I think your obsession with RTR\'s current state of perceived overrate
will come to an anticlimatic end. I think RTR contests the CCA, the Alabama
and the BC Distaff. She probably faces short fields in the two NYRA races.I
think her owners and her trainer are wise enough to realize the value of having
her retire undefeated against colts.

     You are gloating for the wrong reason. You are the TG board\'s answer to
Leon Rasmussen and Federico Tesio. Your only gloat should be that the animal
best bred for 1- 1/2 got the job done. (Admittedly, Hard Spent\'s pedigree was
arguably equally admirable for 1-1/2)

[Michael D.]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My exotics will follow this flowchart
>
> Hard Spun
> Tiago
>
> Hard Spun
> Tiago
> Curlin
> Slew\'s Tizzy
>
> Hard Spun
> Tiago
> Curlin
> Slew\'s Tizzy
> Wild Guy
> CP West
>
> ALL


ctc, only you could pick every horse in the field EXCEPT the filly, then gloat after the race. learn from your mistakes, as I did after my ugly Derby pick.

solid breeding handicapping made the filly much lower than 4-1, BEFORE THE RACE. in fact, if you took into account her fast final quarter and eighth while running the decent Oaks fig, you made her the most likely winner in the race. $10.40 was a gift.

you missed it. it\'s ok. we don\'t hate you. in fact, we liked your Derby handicapping. keep your head up, and take a break. I think you\'re getting worn out here.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

She did get the job done and they\'ll never take that away from her. However she is a well bred filly, not a well bred colt.

I tend agree its probable they know they stole one and won\'t run vs the colots again. However, my gloat has nothing to do with the colt rematch. My gloat will shine equally as bright if she loses to fillies or beats them running 1\'s and 2\'s.

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Riva The Clown:
>
>       Just to mention that the BeeBeeBee reference
> is not lost on me. Any
> mention of the 1972 Preakness winner brings back
> memories of his trainer Del
> Carroll. One morning Mr. Carroll went out to the
> track at Keeneland on the
> stakes winner Sportin Life. Sportin Life found his
> way back to the barn alone
> that morning.
>
>       I think your obsession with RTR\'s current
> state of perceived overrate
> will come to an anticlimatic end. I think RTR
> contests the CCA, the Alabama
> and the BC Distaff. She probably faces short
> fields in the two NYRA races.I
> think her owners and her trainer are wise enough
> to realize the value of having
> her retire undefeated against colts.
>
>      You are gloating for the wrong reason. You
> are the TG board\'s answer to
> Leon Rasmussen and Federico Tesio. Your only gloat
> should be that the animal
> best bred for 1- 1/2 got the job done.
> (Admittedly, Hard Spent\'s pedigree was
> arguably equally admirable for 1-1/2)