Tom Fool

[Michael D.]

Thoughts?

I like High Finance (ml 7/2).

Gets JR, gets 114 lbs, and should save most of the ground.

[marcus]

Interesting race - Commentator has \"bounced\" off the big number  % 75 of time and just when i was getting ready to write off High Finance -  maybe he \"won\'t bounce\" now . I\'m leaning towards Will He Shine -  guess I\'ll have to box them , maybe throw Istan in their too ...
Sal the Pal in the 4th looks like  a fair play if 8-1 IMO , and at long-shot odds , Tenacious Star in the 6th could merit a small flier ...

[jimbo66]

Looks like an unbettable race to me Michael.  High Finance bounces off of all his tops, even smaller ones.  Now he runs a negative 3.5.  He could bounce to the moon.  

As you stated in another thread, Commentator and four negative 5\'s were mostly earned against sub-par competition.  Tough to bet against him with confidence based on number power, but he figures 4-5, so not much value in betting on him.  (I might use 2 singles in the pick 4, Commentator and Any Given Saturday, if the other two races in the sequence look interesting, as I think Any Given Saturday is \"death and taxes\" in the Dwyer).

Rondo looks like he could move forward, but he has been well bet and looked good in his wins, so I don\'t think you get the price you would need on him.  At the weights, he is 4 points slower than Commentator and 3 points slower than High Finance, and he probably goes off roughly the same odds as High Finance, maybe a little longer at about 4-1.  He is most likely to \"run his race\", as I read his sheet, but \"his race\" is probably not enough.

Interesting race to watch though. Will Commentator stay on form this year and be a factor in the sprint races this summer/fall?  Can High Finance put 2 races together for the first time?  Can Rondo step up and compete against the big boys?

Should be interesting.

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Looks like an unbettable race to me Michael.  High
> Finance bounces off of all his tops, even smaller
> ones.  Now he runs a negative 3.5.  He could
> bounce to the moon.  
>
> As you stated in another thread, Commentator and
> four negative 5\'s were mostly earned against
> sub-par competition.  Tough to bet against him
> with confidence based on number power, but he
> figures 4-5, so not much value in betting on him.
> (I might use 2 singles in the pick 4, Commentator
> and Any Given Saturday, if the other two races in
> the sequence look interesting, as I think Any
> Given Saturday is \"death and taxes\" in the
> Dwyer).
>
> Rondo looks like he could move forward, but he has
> been well bet and looked good in his wins, so I
> don\'t think you get the price you would need on
> him.  At the weights, he is 4 points slower than
> Commentator and 3 points slower than High Finance,
> and he probably goes off roughly the same odds as
> High Finance, maybe a little longer at about 4-1.
> He is most likely to \"run his race\", as I read his
> sheet, but \"his race\" is probably not enough.
>
> Interesting race to watch though. Will Commentator
> stay on form this year and be a factor in the
> sprint races this summer/fall?  Can High Finance
> put 2 races together for the first time?  Can
> Rondo step up and compete against the big boys?
>
> Should be interesting.


good points marcus, Jim. HF\'s move backwards off the negative \'1\' last year came on poly though. Considering he ran a \'7.75\' on the same surface this year, was it a bounce or just a switch to a surface he didn\'t like? but yes, I would feel more confident if he had more time coming into this one.

[Uncle Buck]

Good call man. Hope you crushed. The inside bias today was something esle from what I could see on my laptop.

The 6 F turf sprints seem to favor the outside runners too - no matter what the odds or condition of the animals.

[Michael D.]

Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Good call man. Hope you crushed. The inside bias
> today was something esle from what I could see on
> my laptop.
>
> The 6 F turf sprints seem to favor the outside
> runners too - no matter what the odds or condition
> of the animals.


thanks Buck. $13.20 was big for that horse. also had a decent HF/Awesome Twist/all tri, using the theory that anything could happen once they hit the half in :44 or so.

funny, I also bombed Johnny V at around 5-1 the last time Commentator $ went down in flames (Pomeroy).

[marcus]

Nice Score - generous price too   . you were right HF didn\'t have to bounce  !

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Nobiz at 6-5 and AnyGivenSaturday at 7-5 and the Tom Fool was not playable?

Congrats Michael, beating the odds on is what is about.

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Looks like an unbettable race to me Michael.  High
> Finance bounces off of all his tops, even smaller
> ones.  Now he runs a negative 3.5.  He could
> bounce to the moon.  
>
> As you stated in another thread, Commentator and
> four negative 5\'s were mostly earned against
> sub-par competition.  Tough to bet against him
> with confidence based on number power, but he
> figures 4-5, so not much value in betting on him.
> (I might use 2 singles in the pick 4, Commentator
> and Any Given Saturday, if the other two races in
> the sequence look interesting, as I think Any
> Given Saturday is \"death and taxes\" in the
> Dwyer).
>
> Rondo looks like he could move forward, but he has
> been well bet and looked good in his wins, so I
> don\'t think you get the price you would need on
> him.  At the weights, he is 4 points slower than
> Commentator and 3 points slower than High Finance,
> and he probably goes off roughly the same odds as
> High Finance, maybe a little longer at about 4-1.
> He is most likely to \"run his race\", as I read his
> sheet, but \"his race\" is probably not enough.
>
> Interesting race to watch though. Will Commentator
> stay on form this year and be a factor in the
> sprint races this summer/fall?  Can High Finance
> put 2 races together for the first time?  Can
> Rondo step up and compete against the big boys?
>
> Should be interesting.