D. Patent: Nothing To Prove?

[Mall]

For someone who professes to \"know his asses\", you\'ve been noticeably silent re Taz\'s hd victory over Black Ruby at the Sac Fair Sat night. Some are saying that the victory is due to the fact that it is the 1st time a Tbred jock rode a mule in such a race. The jock, \"Cowboy\" Jack Kaenal, rates a mention for his masterful ride on Aloma\'s Ruler in the 1982 Preakness in which, ironically, Mall remembers getting 9-1 because Cowboy Jack was not a big name jock. However, the chart caller\'s brief comments make it clear that he thought it was the 8lb difference in wieghts: \"Taz tenacious late. Black Ruby impost the difference.\" The 9/8 rematch ought to be a corker.

[dpatent]

Mall,

The translation of \'I have nothing to prove\' is:

\'I already beat you a couple times and am scared that you will soon beat me and spoil my deity-like reputation\'.

I didn\'t see the race.  At 400 yds, 8 lbs should equal 7 to 8 feet.  What was the margin of victory?

[Mall]

The margin of victory was a short head, which is why some are saying the tide will switch back to Black Ruby when they meet at Del Mar at a longer distance. However, no one ever gets around to mentioning what that longer distance is. I\'m pretty sure I\'m going to watch this one on TVG, but if I was in the vicinity,(i.e.Calif & surrounding states) I can\'t imagine not being there to witness mule racing history.

[TGJB]

I\'ve had some dealings with \"I have nothing to prove\", and you can take out \"I already beat you a couple of times\".

[TGJB]

I can\'t believe you guys are getting me interested in mule racing.

[dpatent]

Mall,

Was the title of your post addressed to the margin of victory or your estimate of the effect of 8 lbs. on BR?

Showing my work here when there is a clash of ass titans (please don\'t take this pun to the next level):  

Assuming (and I know that you have problems with the standing start issue) that 5 lbs. = 1 length at 5f, then 8lbs = 1.6 lengths at 5f.  1 length is approximately equal to 12 feet, so 1.6 lengths = 19.2 feet.  If the race is 400 yards, just under 2f, then the effect of 8 lbs. on BR should be slightly less than 2/5 of 19.2, or about 7.5 feet.

Since mules weigh less than thoroughbreds, you could argue that 8 lbs. has a slightly greater effect and 7.5 feet is too conservative.

[dpatent]

Jerry,

Fair enough.  It depends on who is claiming they have nothing to prove.  Wonder who you might be thinking of. . . ?

I was just recalling that when I was much younger my brother and I used to play table tennis in the basement of our house.  I beat him 87 straight games.  One day, and I still don\'t know how, he managed to take a game.  It was probably the happiest day of his life and he never let me forget it.  Somehow I picture that that\'s how it will be when the Red Sox finally win the World Series.

[Alydar in California]

David Patent wrote: \"1 length is approximately equal to 12 feet...\"

Is this true? I have no idea. Are these asses 3-4 feet longer than horses?

[dpatent]

Aly,

You must be following the Shetland Pony Circuit.

The standard that has long been used in racing is that 1/5 of a second equals 1 length.  We now know that is not quite right, as horses run at different speeds during the race, but what follows is a good approximation:

A good horse can run 6f in 1:10.  That is 38.7 mph.  At 38.7 mph, the horse travels about 57 feet per second (38.7*5280/3600).  At 57 feet per second, 1/5 of a second = 11.4 feet.  

Earlier in the race, fractions are faster and later in the race they are slower.  Some horses run faster than 38.7 mph and some run significantly slower.

Obviously the speed at which horses run does not affect its length (thus the roughness of the assumption), but unless a horse is a small little mule, 8-9 feet is going to lead to some Suffolk Downs in the winter-like (or Perfect Drift in the Belmont-like)assumptions about the speed of racehorses.

And for a reality check -- when was the last time you stood next to a thoroughbred?  The distance from the nose on an outstretched neck to the tail has got to be more than 11-12 feet for a fully grown horse.  

Anybody care to weigh in on this?

[Alydar in California]

David: One of the knocks (there are 493 others) on Brohamer\'s book, \"Modern Pace Handicapping,\" is that for ease of calculating, he lengthens a length by making it 10 feet. In the revised version of Davidowitz\'s \"Betting Thoroughbreds,\" he reports on a study of the average length of thoroughbreds. It is about 8.75 feet, if I recall. The tail, my friend, does not count. If you want to calculate in a different manner from chart callers, be my guest, but realize what you\'re doing.

[Mall]

I have to side with Alydar. Avg Tbred height is 16 hands & avg length is about 1.5 times height, which leaves us at less than 9 feet. That seems about right based on my observations, with the qualification that I would fit right in at the Louisville Tbred Club\'s \"Conformation For Dummies\" seminar this Sat.

On to the race, which TVG is billing as \"The Rumble By The Sea.\" I didn\'t even know there was such a thing as mule racing until I read about the bridge-jumper who bet $500k on Black Ruby to show, obviously impressed by his 59 wins in 70 starts &, if I remember correctly, the fact that he hasn\'t run out of the money in 3 or 4 yrs. Those who know about these things say that Sat\'s race result was due to the facts that BR\'s better distance is 660 yds, that he had a race 6 days ago while Taz did not, that he likes the inside posts better, that he weaved a little at the start, that Taz had Cowboy Jack, & the 8lb weight concession. The fact that the race will be the last one on the last day at Del Mar, not to mention the Blood-Horse article & tv features, qualifies this as something of a minor phenomenon & to Mall\'s way of thinking, must see tv.

[dpatent1]

I stand corrected.  I guess the weight difference was worth about 5 feet then.

[Mall]

I know it\'s none of my business, but in light of the pending purchase of LaD, perhaps the above info will come in handy sooner than later. Based on the patience & discipline I saw at Sar, who knows what you could accomplish if you had accurate nos & were there everyday managing the place. Lord knows that racing is in dire need of more execs who actually understand the game. If you do decide to go that route, be careful of the cajuns. There seems to be some truth to the stereotype that there is larceny in their blood.

[dpatent]

As GM of the new \"Harrah\'s Downs\" in Shreveport my first act will be to establish a 660 yard match race between War Emblem (who is resembling a mule more and more each day) and Black Ruby.  War Emblem\'s handicap is that Alydar will have to be the rider and Black Ruby will be ridden by the jock with the highest ROI at the Saratoga meet.

In case anybody thinks I\'m serious, I\'m staying put in Vegas.  We already have some good people in Shreveport to run things.

[Alydar in California]

David writes: \"War Emblem\'s handicap is that Alydar will have to be the rider...\"

My thanks for not harming this sitting duck: \"And for a reality check -- when was the last time you stood next to a thoroughbred?.\"

You\'re lucky I like you, David.