Friedman says Pletchers horse running well on the whole

[miff]

Raggie Richie from left field tells me that the Rags people do not think that Pletchers 100 entrants are under performing ON THE WHOLE. What could they possibly be looking at for the last 5 weeks with just a few exceptions. It\'s the talk of the SPA how poorly TAP runners are performing with TAP himself confiding to many that he is perplexed.


Must be the sometimes voodoo projection methodology that they are misreading. There isn\'t a person of knowledge in this game that has not seen runner after runner from TAP perform totally \"Empty\"


Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I would point out that Plech started the meet very well. He is now winning at a rate of approximately 11%

He won some significant Stakes early. Most notably the Whitney and has tailed off markedly.

This is a timely thread in regard to another running that notes there is not much which separate horses in respective classes. If you could put a percentage on the difference in effort for two horses that ran four lengths apart at 9 furlongs it very well may be a 2 or 3 percent points difference in ability/effort. Increasing the effectiveness of any particular horse against contemporaries that have 150 years of industry common knowledge and as many as 40 more years actual training experience is not an easy task if one plays by the rules.

If he truly has the best horses and best people and is the most knowledgeable man in the game, this slump could not occur. Plech is being impacted by things behind the scenes influencing his behavior. Without the edge that he has had, Plech with his level of experience and organizational emphasis would be the 10 percent trainer he is currently hitting at Saratoga.

CtMC

Miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Raggie Richie from left field tells me that the
> Rags people do not think that Pletchers 100
> entrants are under performing ON THE WHOLE. What
> could they possibly be looking at for the last 5
> weeks with just a few exceptions. It\'s the talk of
> the SPA how poorly TAP runners are performing with
> TAP himself confiding to many that he is
> perplexed.
>
>
> Must be the sometimes voodoo projection
> methodology that they are misreading. There isn\'t
> a person of knowledge in this game that has not
> seen runner after runner from TAP perform totally
> \"Empty\"
>
>
> Mike

[marcus]

IMO - Pletchers VA Derby win was the most surprising one to me - the others not so much ... Don\'t know his overal stats or win % but there doesn\'t seem to be anyone in particular right now who absolutely dominates ( at the stakes level ) . Those wins however in the Oaks , Belmont , VA Derby and Whitney are relatively impressive though ...

[basket777]

come on we all know its been this way since the stewards too some samples of his hay. the results are in and well lets just say its really expensive hay.

sorry you were not aware of the \"haygate\"

[fkach]

>If he truly has the best horses and best people and is the most knowledgeable man in the game, this slump could not occur.<

You should take a basic probability and statistics course or flip coins for a few hours and record the streaks.

[miff]

..... and is the most knowledgeable man in the game.




Chuck,

Do not recall anyone ever calling TAP the most knowledgeable man in the game. He knows racing and race shape and often consults with the jock on pre race strategy unlike many trainers that give a leg up to the jock and leave it to him.


His expensive babies are performing so poorly that one would have to think they are not even being fed, let alone juiced.


Mike

[richiebee]

Best Horses? Probably

Best People? Maybe

Most Knowledgeable? I think if you read even the pro- Pletcher posts on this
board, nobody is comparing him to the best horsemen of this or previous
generations. TAP has owners with deep pockets who can provide him with the best
racing stock in the world, at least what is left of it after the Dubai Brothers
are finished.

TAP\'s subpar Saratoga meet: As was mentioned by some scalliwag on the other
board (the nerve, to call a certain French trainer Patrick Biancobra), it would
be an interesting study to see what the ROI/ win percentage is on Pletcher\'s
100 plus Saratoga starters in their next race after the Spa closes (or to see
if there is any significant TG \"correction\").

Making more excuses for TAP: He may not have been favored by the condition books
at this summer\'s meet, which featured unprecedented numbers of cheap turf races
and NYB races. (Despite a subpar meet quality wise, NYRA is doing big business
in terms of total handle which says quite a bit about the lack of quality
racing anywhere else this summer).

It is what it is: Barring a big turnaround in the last 6 days of the meet, TAP
could finish with a win percentage for the meet below 10%, and that will be the
biggest story of the Spa in 07.

[fkach]

>it would be an interesting study to see what the ROI/ win percentage is on Pletcher\'s 100 plus Saratoga starters in their next race after the Spa closes (or to see if there is any significant TG \"correction\").<

I don\'t think ROI is a very good way of measuring TP\'s performance as a trainer (even though I use ROI very often to help find value).  

Astute handicappers notice tainers who horse\'s tend to develop as they move up the ranks. They also notice those whose horses are more likely to run back to their prior good efforts. Those horses tend to be bet down to reflect those increased favorable probabilities.

TP is unique in that his reputation at Saratoga combined with a slightly less sophisticated group of horse players probably lead him to being very overbet on many occasions at this meet.

I don\'t really know if it\'s possible to conclude anything based on this small a sample. When your longer term win percentage is in the 25% range, you are going to have periods where it rises to 35% or falls to 10% due to randomness.  I think that\'s true not only of winning, but figures as well.  If your horses typically run a pair X%, bounce Y%, and peak Z%, you are going to have periods where the horses are running much better or worse for no other reason than randomness. If you go into something like that with a pre-conceived notion, you will often come to an incorrect conclusion.

IMO, there are times when you can predict things like this.

If a trainer recently shipped in with a lot of fresh horses he might go on a tear for awhile because they might all peak at the same time.

If an exceptional trainer just got a lot of new stock from inferior connections, he might go on a tear for awhile etc...

If all a trainer\'s horses have already had a few taxing efforts they might all start to slide at the same time.

If a couple of horses got sick, a bunch of them might miss a few days training and run subpar etc...

Unless someone knows something the rest of us don\'t, I don\'t think this is one of those occasions, but I\'m not sure what you can read into the results unless you are trying to read something into them.  If TP saddled a horse right now that I thought represented good value, I would play it. At most I might insist that it be better than marginal value.

[miff]

Mark,

The sheets were talking about the Saratoga TAP runners for the most part. At Monmouth and Arl Park, TAP is running at high win percentage ( he\'s drugging at those venues, not at the SPA,ahem).

Richiebee points to the excessive NYB and turf sprints, true, but TAP runners almost always show some \"flash\" as opposed to the \"empty\"many are displaying.

Also hear that J\'Ray(one of the emptiest SPA performs from Pletcher) ran better than his previous few races against open stake horses on Rags. How can you not gamble this game when people will actually bet and believe that J\'Ray gave the best performance of his last 3 races.He was wide both turns and totally\"without any punch\"(from the guy on his back)yet ran the best race of his recent cycle, sure he did.


Mike

[alm]

Who wants to bet TAP\'s Saratoga stock doesn\'t wake up at their next venue?

If you think this is a random walk thing you haven\'t followed this guy at all...he is always in the 25% plus range...everywhere except where he doesn\'t play a lot.

Might be interesting to note his ship-in percentage in SoCal, for example.  He wins some, loses many or so it seems.

[Michael D.]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Best Horses? Probably
>
> Best People? Maybe
>
> Most Knowledgeable? I think if you read even the
> pro- Pletcher posts on this
> board, nobody is comparing him to the best
> horsemen of this or previous
> generations. TAP has owners with deep pockets who
> can provide him with the best
> racing stock in the world, at least what is left
> of it after the Dubai Brothers
> are finished.
>
> TAP\'s subpar Saratoga meet: As was mentioned by
> some scalliwag on the other
> board (the nerve, to call a certain French trainer
> Patrick Biancobra), it would
> be an interesting study to see what the ROI/ win
> percentage is on Pletcher\'s
> 100 plus Saratoga starters in their next race
> after the Spa closes (or to see
> if there is any significant TG \"correction\").
>
> Making more excuses for TAP: He may not have been
> favored by the condition books
> at this summer\'s meet, which featured
> unprecedented numbers of cheap turf races
> and NYB races. (Despite a subpar meet quality
> wise, NYRA is doing big business
> in terms of total handle which says quite a bit
> about the lack of quality
> racing anywhere else this summer).
>
> It is what it is: Barring a big turnaround in the
> last 6 days of the meet, TAP
> could finish with a win percentage for the meet
> below 10%, and that will be the
> biggest story of the Spa in 07.


good post Richie.

further, poly is crowding out the wind em up quarter horse guys with good vets. the speed game on dirt, a game Pletcher plays so well, just got a lot more difficult. just look at the 2nd today; Pletcher would have been in the winner\'s circle with that colt last year. this year it\'s Baffert, who just got the hell out of Dmr.

I\'d venture to guess that if Jerry took a look, he\'d come up with the same conclusion the other guy did.

the smart guys are going to start to look at good poly form, and look to the big purses at the poly tracks, where the competition isn\'t nearly as difficult (actually, the smart ones already started).

[Wrongly]

Kelli White went from never winning a high school or college track meet in her life before meeting Balco\'s founder Victor Conte, six months latter she won both the 100 and 200 meter dashes at the World Championships in Paris.

Let\'s face it, if humans are willing to put performance enhancing drugs into their owns bodies, what makes anyone so naive to believe that certainer trainers aren\'t doing the same to horses.

The problem is the sport doesn\'t punish it\'s own!

[Barry Irwin]

Scum like Chuckles the Clown in the future will not be able to hide behind an inane screen name and take pot shots at people like Todd Pletcher. As technology improves, jerks like this one will be weeded out of existence and will have to crawl back into the holes from which they emerged. This putz is a prime example of the worst part about the Internet revolution.

If you have something worthwhile to contribute, there are plenty of authorities out there interested in speaking with you.

In the meantime, I suggest you clam up unless you can produce something to back up your claims.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Barry, I haven\'t discerned much of a reason to respond personally to you and part of that restraint involved the fact nothing emanating from you approached a threshold necessary to rebut. That is still the case, but I believe its worth pointing out to the followers of this board why you come across as \"low rent property\" as evidenced by your complete loss of civility. In a phrase the reason is \"personal bias\", but I will elaborate some.

Barry, I\'m not sure how to phrase this without blowing my own horn too much, but discerning things accurately is something that I do extremely well. I make mistakes now and then, but invariably I both recognize those mistakes and correct them before very long. I\'ve won four of the last six derbies and it really should have been five. As an example outside of wagering unique races, I knew when he invaded that Bush had fabricated a case against Iraq upon impressions, lies and withheld evidence. I knew before the subsequent disclosures that Iraq was a fraud and also knew at that time that it would end as badly as it did for the British and for Charlemagne before them.

Barry in this disagreement you are the one making the mistake.

Respectfully, it\'s apparent that you don\'t have the background nor the level of discernment necessary to reach the heart of this matter. Either that, or you lash out in defense of Plech due to a conflict of interests. That conflict involves your publicly stated position that you support clean racing, when that position is mitigated by a private relationship with a \"trainer\", generally questioned, and one that the knowledgeable Know is illegitimate. The truth do take a bite and sometimes the reason its so painful is because that bite is to the bone.

I would point out that Plech\'s Saratoga stats still make him the leading money earner with half the wins of the leading trainers. In other words, despite slumping overall he is still ringing the bell in the lucrative races. Part of Plech\'s doping modus operandi has always been that he continues to \"treat\" his Grade I stars when backing off on the rest of his stable. Below is a reprise link to the Great Plech Stable Star Die Off of 2002:

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,36897,36897#msg-36897

It\'s abundantly clear that a prima facie case has already been made against Plech and that the burden is now upon his supporters to do the explaining.

As it has been, it is still within your power to do the ethical thing Barry. Broach with Plech subtley when he established his relationship with Steve Allday and report his answer back to this board.

Those involved in fraud always want those discerning their trickery to clam up.

CtMC


 Barry Irwin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Scum like Chuckles the Clown in the future will
> not be able to hide behind an inane screen name
> and take pot shots at people like Todd Pletcher.
Plech is many things, but virtuous is not one of them.
> As technology improves, jerks like this one will
> be weeded out of existence and will have to crawl
> back into the holes from which they emerged. This
> putz is a prime example of the worst part about
> the Internet revolution.
>
> If you have something worthwhile to contribute,
> there are plenty of authorities out there
> interested in speaking with you.
>
> In the meantime, I suggest you clam up unless you
> can produce something to back up your claims.

[richiebee]

Chuck:

I am not going to get involved in any way in a mudslinging match between you
and Barry Irwin.

I think the attention you brought to Pletcher\'s 02 \"die off\", albeit 5 years
after the fact, was probably your finest moment.

The 02 die off and the subpar meet Pletcher is going through in 07 really do
nothing to \"shift the burden\" to TAP\'s supporters to establish TAP\'s status as
legitimate trainer.

As I have said in the past, the burden is really on you at this point to
continue to pursue the details of the die off. Autopsies were performed on all
3 deceased animals. Blood samples were drawn. Were these samples frozen? The
burden is actually on you and others who would discredit TAP to insist that
these frozen samples be retested in 07. Who knows what they might find?

While your treatment of the 02 die off was at times sublime, I must comment
without rancor that your contention that TAP is only \"doping\" (your word) the
graded stakes runners is ridiculous. This contortion of fact can take its place
next to the Bush Administration\'s WMDs and its predecessor of a half century
ago,the \"Domino Theory\", the military industrial complex\'s raison d\' etre
for the waste of lives and money in Southeast Asia.