Friedman says Pletchers horse running well on the whole

[RICH]

chuckles

your opinion on lawyer ron this weekend?

[Street Sense]

Richie, autopsies were done supposedly, but did you ever see the results?  What is Chuckles or anyone else to do when they don\'t release the results?  There was never another word about what happened.  Since Pletcher claimed that it was likely due to a patch of grass they all ate from, you\'d think that NYRA would\'ve been worried about what was living in that patch of grass for the sake of future horses.  Never heard they did anything about that either.

[fkach]

>Part of Plech\'s doping modus operandi has always been that he continues to \"treat\" his Grade I stars when backing off on the rest of his stable.<

This is one of the most ridiculous things you\'ve said on this issue. It was just a year or two ago when many of TP\'s very best stakes horses were misfiring at CD during the week of the Derby that people were saying he backed off because of new testing for Graded Stakes. Then when his horses ran poorly in the Derby it was supposedly for the same reason. The reality was that if you understood some of the more subtle aspects of their trips I believe all but one ran well and the other got hurt in the race and was out for a very long time.

This is all actually very simple.

There are many trainers where the evidence of chronic \"illegal\" performance enhancement is very high. TP is not one of them. That doesn\'t mean he isn\'t using illegal drugs now or hasn\'t used them in the past, but there are very LOGICAL reasons for his stats as a trainer and the performances of most of his horses. That\'s not the case elsewhere. So the burden is on those that think he is doing something illegal to PROVE it. The problem is that his critics refuse to acknowledge that or can\'t understand it. They would rather just hurl accusations.

[fkach]

>chuckles

your opinion on lawyer ron this weekend?<

I can give you the answer to that.

If he fires another big race, it was drugs on.

If he throws in a dud, it was drugs off.

These are the things that won\'t be a factor in his analysis.

1. As a 3YO, LR put up a couple of fast figures despite an inability to relax well and despite being rank on a few occasions.

2. He is a 4YO now and he has been relaxing well.

3. He is coming off a fast lifetime top and wouldn\'t be the first horse to \"mean revert\", \"bounce\" etc...

4. Reasonable people can disagree about just how fast his last race was to begin with.

[Wrongly]

I hate to support the Clown, but what good would it do if the Clown was able to provide you with solid proof that TAP was and or is doping.  What would really happen?  It\'s really a sad state of affairs, he\'s probably given another vacation, which he fights in court and doesn\'t serve for another 2 years later.  Look at Biancone, 15 day vacation, does this penalty PUNISH in any shape or form?  Heck when TAP was on his last vacation he gained business!

http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=40531

[miff]

The Biancone suspension was for a May infraction of a class B drug. The issue still PENDING with Biacone is far more serious but his guilt or innocence has not been resolved.

Mike

[miff]

Rags friend told me that Len Friedman feels Lawyer Ron will regress big and is a toss. From the pole at that distance at the SPA, LR has a substantial tactical edge.

Tricky Ricky is sneakily as deadly as ever and I\'m looking at him seriously.

Mike

[fkach]

I don\'t know what would happen.

This is an industry problem (both legal and illegal drug use). The industry as a whole can\'t bring itself to put the horses and the fans ahead of the economics. There may be some people with noble intentions, but as a group IMO they are a despicable lot.

Personally I don\'t mind suspicions etc... I\'m probably one of the few people that enjoys almost all of Chuckles contributions. But the constant TP attacks get a little tiresome after awhile. He\'s one of the few trainers where it\'s at least possible to logically conclude his performance is related to the best stock, access to the best help etc... skill at spotting horses, and hard work.

[richiebee]

Street:

At the time of these deaths I never really thought of connecting them in the
way that CTC has and to be honest I wasn\'t aware that the stakes winning filly
had also died at about the same time that Left Bank and Warner\'s fell ill.

The one explanation which may be ruled out by men of logic is coincidence.

I wasn\'t even aware of the \"patch of grass\" theory.

Were blood samples frozen? I do not know, but tests are available now which
would detect substances which might not have been detectable in 2002.

I do not think there was any extensive investigation of the \"die off\" in terms
of looking for trainer or veterinary malfeasance, because TAP\'s reputation and
track record are relatively spotless. The man has saddled over 15,000 runners
and has one positive, for mepivocaine(sp?). (The unsettling thing about the
mepivocaine(sp?) positive is that both Scott Lake and Rick Dutrow also were set
down for mepivocaine(sp?) positives in the last couple of years).

My point here is that imagine if the die off had occurred in the barn of one of
the usual suspects from days past, such as Ferriola or Moschera or Oscar,or one
of the latter day miracle workers such as Cole Norman, or the man currently in
the cross- hairs, Patrick Biancobra.

If anything unseemly was found in the 3 autopsies, if NYRA\'s action ever
elevated to the level where they could be considered an investigation, you can
be certain that any findings which may have reflected badly on Racing would
never have seen the light of day; the cover up is always more evil than the
crime.

Nothing will likely ever come of these 3 unfortunate and mystifying deaths,
except that maybe the dialogue which they have spawned will bring us closer
to having a level playing field.

Last chance saloon for me at the Spa Saturday-- the late Pick 4 looks very
playable and I will have to catch a decent one to get even and out for
the meet.

[fkach]

>At the time of these deaths I never really thought of connecting them in the
way that CTC has and to be honest I wasn\'t aware that the stakes winning filly
had also died at about the same time that Left Bank and Warner\'s fell ill.

The one explanation which may be ruled out by men of logic is coincidence.

I wasn\'t even aware of the \"patch of grass\" theory.<


I thought they didn\'t die of the same thing???

You would think that if there was a common cause, there would be a common reason for death regardless of whether it was bad grass or bad drugs.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

RICH Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> chuckles
>
> your opinion on lawyer ron this weekend?

Rich, I\'m extremely leery of him.

Factually, he\'s coming off a super top. Including some wide. He\'s coming back on relatively short rest for a Plech. Caveat, this horse has a history of Iron Constitution.

He will undoubtedly be favored and probably be odds on in the 4-5 range, perhaps just over even money.

Plech is struggling of late and there is some reason to believe his stable has been predominantly \"dope off\" but its incredulous to believe that Plech would be running Ron back in 4 weeks after that previous effort without an edge, so I am concluding he will be \"maintained\" in the Allday method with the barn conducting itself in a manner to elicit another big effort.

In other words, I\'m reading him \"Crank On\", but tempering that with the reality of prospective poor return coupled with the risk of last race induced stress.

If Ron\'s last race was as big as it appears, the Woodward could be his final start. He has worked well, but the real running is where the keratin meets the polyurethane.  

My problem is not betting against Ron. The issue for me is separating the others.

[marcus]

CTC - Interesting , IMO- he gave almost a years worth of development last time in that one race , gets the minimum of rest for this and we know these types of numbers can hurt horses but my feeling is he handle\'s it and stays at this relative level of ability because of his really solid 4 yo numbers .
 That being said , Lawyer Ron\'s price will be too dull for a win bet and it is definitely a big question whether that last one got him or not ...

[spa]

Chuck,didn\'t you predict that Ron wouldn\'t run again?? Even with Todd\'s second best rider Ron will kick some serious ass. John V. needs the dope,not the horse..........

[stillinger]

I think Chuck states a valid projection in assuming Ron will \"fire\". And I think that makes almost anything except Brass Hat second to him impossible for me. He is the quickest horse and doesn\'t have to lead, saves the ground. The only thing that isn\'t perfect is the fact that he has to leave and make sure he doesn\'t have to lead. That is the only thing against him here that I see. The dope aside, he was meant to be best of these. And as I remember from \'02, nobody was waiting. Left Bank ran lights out at 7f that year, and at 9f. Wind up and FIRE.

So, he scares me here. I think he\'s best and while he doesn\'t have EVERYTHING his way, lots of it is.

Attila\'s Storm is clear speed and a look alike to the race against Proud Tower Too, would be a potential winner here, that distribution. If Baffert doesn\'t have Midnight Lute over trained, he comes at 7f. Beaten 2 by Latent Heat at 7f is not shabby. He seems like the finish to me.

At DEL, it really seems to me that JB got it right on - it\'s not impossible that Summer Doldrums could get lucky and get through inside, and that he wants this distance over longer. Strike the Deal \"looked\" outrageous last time, ran big shorter and longer. Sire is really something. I thought Nobiz Like Shobiz ran good last time, because he moved when asked late. He could easily be in the exacta and that ruins that deal for me - Strike the Deal is a deal at 7/2 here. He doesn\'t have to win, but Red Giant ran pretty good in CHGO.

It is a job worthy of Julien Leparoux to have to time his Price Tag finish vs her stablemate, Precious Kitten, who looks like a lock to me because she is the only speed natural to this distance. And I think Lady of Venice is obviously this generations\' late move at 8f on firm ground, filly. So, losing to her a length makes you beat Price Tag? I don\'t see how you could bet Price Tag if she is favored. Bobby\'s horses can run 1-2 here. At no price.

I would love to see a very fast track and bet Attila\'s Storm and get 7/2 on Strike the Deal, and sit down. It will be a mark of character if I resist playing Precious Kitten, because she can\'t be a real deal, but \"control\" issues can raise their ugly heads at the end of the day, so ..discipline is good defense.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Even if he does \"kick serious ass\", he will be doing so at about 4-5, with the discussed bounce risks. That is a very risky proposition. Then, provided he does win, for second place, that is a heckuva competitive bunch in there with him. Essentially, they\'ve taken turns beating each other. Risky Ron-all-all-all? I don\'t bet that way.

I did mention Ron gave me a sense of Deja Vu and that I would not be surprised if he did not run again. He hasn\'t won yet, nor has he yet finished another race.

One thing I am sure of. He will be fully \"Cranked\".

 spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,didn\'t you predict that Ron wouldn\'t run
> again?? Even with Todd\'s second best
> rider Ron will kick some serious ass. John V.
> needs the dope,not the horse..........