TGAB - resident genius

[shanahan]

alan, I really don\'t know how you do it, but giving outthe $70j winner today on Jason\'s show was...unreal.  thanks a million (or at least $347).

[Michael D.]

he was a \'6.5\' type, just a length or so too slow. he figured to love the rock hard turf, and figured to save all the ground. I wasn\'t sure he would get the distance, and I\'m sure the crowd had the same concern (thus the $70).

nice pick Alan.

[fkach]

The 24.1 49.1 first half didn\'t hurt him.  He ran 23.2 23.3 17.3 after that.  That\'s hardly the easiet set of fractions to make up a lot of ground through. Pays to Dream looks like he ran a good race.

I guess that\'s why it sometimes makes sense to take a big price on a horse that isn\'t best. You lose way more often than if you bet the better horses, but....

sometimes they get a favorable trip that gets them home.

sometimes the better horses get poor trips.

sometimes the horse unexpectedly improves enough to win.

somtimes the better horses unexpectedly run poorly.

It\'s looks like this was a very good value play.

[shanahan]

didn\'t have it I take it...if you can record it, Alan is ususally on last, about 5 minutes before the hour.  jason does a great job with this show - I met with him last week @ DElMar & happened to have dinner next to him...all class.


fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The 24.1 49.1 first half didn\'t hurt him.  He ran
> 23.2 23.3 17.3 after that.  That\'s hardly the
> easiet set of fractions to make up a lot of ground
> through. Pays to Dream looks like he ran a good
> race.
>
> I guess that\'s why it sometimes makes sense to
> take a big price on a horse that isn\'t best. You
> lose way more often than if you bet the better
> horses, but....
>
> sometimes they get a favorable trip that gets them
> home.
>
> sometimes the better horses get poor trips.
>
> sometimes the horse unexpectedly improves enough
> to win.
>
> somtimes the better horses unexpectedly run
> poorly.
>
> It\'s looks like this was a very good value play.

[fkach]

>didn\'t have it I take it...<

No. I thought the favorite was legitimate. I didn\'t see anything, including the  the probable trips, that made me think he was vulnerable. I didn\'t see anyone I thought was very likely to move up enough to beat him. I didn\'t even see any short priced horses I thought I could leave out of the belly of the exacta if I used him on top. So I passed the race. But for for future reference I thought Pays to Dream ran very well given the race development and I\'m willing to excuse the loss by the favorite. I would probably be looking for one of those horses (or another) to turn the tables on the winner next time.