ROTW

[spa]

Will Humble Janet scratch?

[TGJB]

That\'s where we left it.

[spa]

I thought she\'d win this race at a big,big price..........

[SoCalMan2]

The commentary on Bear Now does not address the fact that she has run different numbers on different surfaces.  If all her numbers had been run on dirt, I would figure to run something very strong on the dirt in the ROTW.  If her artificial track numbers were actually turf numbers, then, in my view, she would appear to be ordinary for the purposes of the ROTW.  I have struggled mightily with how to contend with the multitude of new artificial surfaces.  Any insights on what to make out of the surfaces she has run her figures on compared to the surface she is running on on Saturday?

[TGJB]

The dirt \"bounce\" is actually a very good figure, about what you would have expected on any surface off the big top. I thought about discussing that, but it\'s tough to do in a sentence or two.

[123]

I know his win% and ITM% are above average 1st race after trainer change but his tops breakdown 17% 24% 24% 35% compared to the overall trainer average of 19% 18% 21% 42%.Why is he considered a move up trainer?

[Michael D.]

I\'m going with Moon Catcher here. last wasn\'t too bad, but at 12 lengths off an average pace (going a mile and a quarter), it wasn\'t her game. returns to 1 1/16m and gets the regular jock back. decent 1:00.3 work. nice post. gets 3 lbs from Octave.

[shanahan]

I read Octave as a pretty simple 4 races, - move up, 4 races move up, an today I expect another move forward...sort price of course, my simple tri will be:

octave,talkin @ love/octave,talkin love/all

maybe split them as well.

[richiebee]

I have made this point about Scott Lake. His \"runs based\" v \"figure based\"
stats are quite, well, disparate.

His \"overall\" stat is a good place to start: wins 23% (9269 starts), but off of
a 5,353 start figure based sample, Lake\'s runners have posted 10% tops, 24%
pairs, 26% offs, and 40% Xs. At Philly, Lake wins 23% of his starts (sample
size 2456), yet his figure based distribution at Pha (1458) is 12/26/26/37.

TAPs stats show less disparity: Overall,25% wins in last 4885 starts, with a
figure based distribution (2929) of 17/31/26/26. Mildly surprising that TAP
is able to win 25% of the time with slightly less than 50% of his runners
posting a top or a pair? Or is it wrong for one to expect more harmony in these
two sets of stats?

I\'ll ask the question again: High win %, relatively few runners throwing in top
performances....? Superior placement of entries by said trainer? Or is it a
statistical aberration?

Simple question: Why can\'t run based and figure based stats be derived from
same sample?

Gotta go golf. Best of luck, wagering warriors.

[Bally Ache]

123,

Scott Lake always puts speed into horses when he takes them over.  The work of Sept. 18 indicates he\'s put speed into this one.  And his horses usually run to their works.  The downside is he likes his horses to be on the front end and that\'s not the place to be in this race.

Another negative IMO is he\'s taking the horse over from a competent trainer.  Helen Pitts is the original trainer of Curlin, for those who don\'t remember.  As you would expect, he moves them up better when they\'re coming from less successful trainers.

[spa]

3/2/4 and 3/4/2 straight

[stillinger]

Cotillion another nice one - encore kudos. You were right on about this filly, and I coudn\'t get to the rail with the Love, but that wasn\'t the difference; she couldn\'t go forward as you feared; polytrack fitness, not a need of polytrack, and once more it\'s WO that transfers most easily it seems so far.

[stillinger]

Off the top of my head, Lake does make money placing,
and he claims horses that are past their tops, and he
sends them, so when they lose, they are X\'s?
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have made this point about Scott Lake. His \"runs
> based\" v \"figure based\"
> stats are quite, well, disparate.
>
> His \"overall\" stat is a good place to start: wins
> 23% (9269 starts), but off of
> a 5,353 start figure based sample, Lake\'s runners
> have posted 10% tops, 24%
> pairs, 26% offs, and 40% Xs. At Philly, Lake wins
> 23% of his starts (sample
> size 2456), yet his figure based distribution at
> Pha (1458) is 12/26/26/37.
>
> TAPs stats show less disparity: Overall,25% wins
> in last 4885 starts, with a
> figure based distribution (2929) of 17/31/26/26.
> Mildly surprising that TAP
> is able to win 25% of the time with slightly less
> than 50% of his runners
> posting a top or a pair? Or is it wrong for one to
> expect more harmony in these
> two sets of stats?
>
> I\'ll ask the question again: High win %,
> relatively few runners throwing in top
> performances....? Superior placement of entries by
> said trainer? Or is it a
> statistical aberration?
>
> Simple question: Why can\'t run based and figure
> based stats be derived from
> same sample?
>
> Gotta go golf. Best of luck, wagering warriors.

[TGJB]

Richie-- remind me of this when things slow down in December, and we\'ll take a look at changing the criteria for the figure based part.

[stillinger]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The dirt \"bounce\" is actually a very good figure,
> about what you would have expected on any surface
> off the big top. I thought about discussing that,
> but it\'s tough to do in a sentence or two.

Maybe in December,
kidding, but I could have used the schooling on exactly this.