The Biggest Bet Against

[spa]

Kelly\'s Landing........

[Rick B.]

...\"1st race after Dubai\" bounce? Or something else?

[Delmar Deb]

You must have seen the fight between Tom Amoss and Gary Stevens over the work...and the below confirmation of Amoss\' opinion courtesy of the Racing Post on-site reporter:    

Kelly\'s connections hopeful

CONNECTIONS of Dubai Golden Shaheen winner Kelly\'s Landing (Sprint) are hoping a seven-month layoff since the biggest success of his career will prove no impediment.

He put in his final major work at Keeneland on Saturday morning, going five furlongs on the Polytrack in 59secs. “He worked super,” said trainer Eddie Kenneally.

“He\'s ready to run,” he added. “He hasn\'t run since March, but he\'s a horse that runs very well fresh so we\'re happy.

“We had hoped to give him one race before the Breeders\' Cup as a prep. He had a couple of minor setbacks so we ran out of time and didn\'t have an opportunity.”

[richiebee]

DD and Spa:

Thanks for the input. That is why we post.

KL stays on my spread ticket. I am trying to beat a post time favorite who I
think is overhyped at this point. KL is 30/1 morning line in DRF.

KL has run in 10 graded stakes in his career; he has won 4 of them. He has won
7 of 14 lifetime races at the distance. His 30/1 ML obviously reflects his lack
of recency.

I may be older than you folks, but when I was first coming around racing, horses
raced and won with \"minor setbacks\" quite frequently. These runners, who were
playing with pain, were respected for their heart and gameness.

Unfortunately, today, a word which frequently follows \"minor setbacks\"
is \"retired\".

[RICH]

Nashoba\'s Key in any race

[Rick B.]

Frankly, I\'d rather hear from my fellow horseplayer about a horse that CAN\'T win than one that \"can\'t lose\" -- which is why I like threads like this.

Just one polite request -- please add the \"why\" on your bet against, and whether I agree or not, I appreciate your opinion and your time.

[richiebee]

Rick:

Since you asked politely, I will give you my \"who\" and \"why\":

My \"BBA\":

Midnight Lute.

Subjectively: I need him out of the Pick 3.

Objectively: His Saratoga performance in the Forego will not be replicated. In
the Forego, I believe he was running for the first time after a procedure to
improve his breathing. He appeared to get a clean start which had not been the
case in 4 of his previous 8 races. He got a perfect pace and position trip
behind two dueling leaders. Trainer Baffert seems to think that 7/8s is
MidLute\'s best distance. Trainer Baffert was in the midst of a Spa roll
where his runners were not only winning, but hanging up fast times.

His planets were aligned on September 1 at Saratoga. MidLute was awarded a very
high Beyer and a very low TG. If he repeats or comes close to repeating that
performance (figure wise), he wins and we are calling him possibly the fastest
sprinter of all time by the numbers.

But if you take your fuzzy pen or marker and strike a line through that Saratoga
race, MidLute would be 20/1 or 30/1 in this field.

Are MidLute\'s planets going to be aligned on Saturday? Will this be discussed
at the draw this morning? And by the way, I would think if one is trying to
beat Midnight Lute, I would think you would want to see him end up inside.

[Rick B.]

Richie,

Thank you. I am also extremely suspicious of Midnight Lute -- almost as much as I was of Lost In The Fog a few years back -- and I would love to see him finish way, way up the track.

If he wins, though, my Sprint bets crash and I tip my hat to him.

[firmturf]

He need not finish \"way way up the track\" just 5th!

[fkach]

I agree with you that everything aligned for Midnite Lute in the Forego, but I can\'t help but think it was still a \"legitimately\" terrific performance. Even under the assumption that he doesn\'t duplicate his \"number\", I don\'t think it\'s impossible for him to fire another huge shot that puts him in the thick of it.  He was/is still a lightly raced enough horse to just be reaching his peak now. Plus, if he did have corrective surgery before that race (something I didn\'t even know) that\'s even more of a reason to think he\'s an improved horse.

I actually think the 6F is the bigger negative than the fact that he ran a fast number last out.  I am making him a major contender. Whether I use him or not will depend on price.

[Lance]

After his win in the Forego, Baffert said, “I don’t think he’s a (Breeders’ Cup) Sprint horse. Three-quarters might be too short for him. We’re just going to absorb this and take it in.\"

And yet here he is, the favorite for the BC Sprint.

People will argue that Midnight Lute was home free after 6F in the Forego -- which is absolutely true -- but that race was run like a 7F race, with moderate early splits and that long run down the backstretch. I\'m betting that a shorter run down the backstretch, faster early fractions and a full field will beat the heavy fave in this year\'s race -- just as these factors conspired to beat other low-priced, come-from-behind 7F types like Birdonawire, Aldebaran, Rubiano, etc.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Richie,

While I love your analysis and can in fact see your points, I also see Midnight Lute as another Orientate. See their race replays in the Forego  and then directly to the BC Sprint works.

NC Tony

[richiebee]

NCT:

   Orientate was winning his FIFTH consecutive graded stake when winning the BC
Sprint, including the Smile (CRC) and AG Vanderbilt (SAR), both at 6 furlongs.
I think Orientate paid $8.00.

   You will be looking at about the same price on MidLute, who has on his resume
ONE (admittedly brilliant) significant victory going into the BC. Baffert
replaces Bridgmohan with Gomez,gets the 2 post, obviously could win but offers
no real value to me off the one big try.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I think the value is underneath in the exacta\'s/Tri/Super. Remember Thunderello?

With Commentator (belong with NYS Breds) , Attilia\'s Storm (who can\'t win rating, Bordanaro (Has been) and Idiot Proof (just ran huge in Cali bounces now) in the race, Talent Search ( not this calibre),  this race set up all too well for Lute. (if he bounces- which he could, so be it) Kelly\'s Landing, Greg\'s Gold, Benny the Bull and Forefathers will all be bringing it late for minor shares.

Just some early thoughts.

NC Tony

[jbelfior3]

any horse prepping for the Classic or the BC Turf via the Turf Classic or the JCGC at Belmont. You can have CURLIN, LAWYER RON, and ENGLISH CHANNEL.

Good Luck at the value they will offer versus the success of those races as preps.



Good Luck,
Joe B.