jimbo66 Wrote:
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> I think Midnight Lute is the biggest bet against,
> for several reasons. One \"figure\" reason and one
> \"intangible\".
>
> He is coming off a negative 7 race. I believe
> that is the fastest figure ever recorded. It is a
> 5 point new top (or more). If that isn\'t a reason
> to expect a bounce, I am not sure what is.
>
> As for the intangible. Midnight Lute is the kind
> of horse that will not run well at Monmouth (see
> Curlin). He is a huge horse, who runs well when
> outside, not inside. He will not do well on the
> turns at Monmouth. His best shot to hit the board
> would have been to draw way outside and stalk the
> lead, while losing ground, but not be as impacted
> on the turn. Instead, he drew down inside, with
> speed all around him. It would also seem the
> horse is better at 7 panels, than six.
>
> He won\'t like the tight turns, should bounce, and
> will be jammed down inside, where he doesn\'t want
> to be. THis horse is off the board.
Hi Jim,
if ML breaks running, and gets the clean trip, I think he\'s 1 or 2. two pretty big ifs though (especially being a huge horse in a big field, as you say).
my pick here is Smokey Stover. Gryder has handled this guy very well, and he seems primed for a top effort. I see a ground saving negative \'4\'. not sure if I will save with ML or not.
Benny is the enigma here. the general pattern of pair, pair, top is good for these types, and it\'s Dutrow. Guidry, a great sprint jock, gets a clear view behind a brutal pace.
