Breeders\' Cup Filly and Mare Turf
1 All My Loving (IRE) / Patrick Smullen / Aidan P. O\'Brien / Mrs. Richard Henry, Mrs. John Magnier / 15-1
Should have plenty of stamina, but just isn’t fast enough. Pass
2 Honey Ryder / John Velazquez / Todd A. Pletcher / Glencrest Farm / 9-2
Gets a bad rap, from the last two on off going, but ran a couple bang up races on it as a 3yo. She has a good post, and finally doesn’t have Ouija Board to contend with. 10-6-2-1 at the distance. Contender
3 Nashoba\'s Key / Joe TalamoCarla Gaines / Warren B. Williamson / 3-1
Turf top is a point slower than a lot of these, and the connections don’t sound thrilled with the going. Will be short odds based on her undefeated record earned against a lot of shot fields. Tossing here at a short price. Pass
4 Passage of Time (GB) / Ramon Dominguez / Henry A. Cecil / Juddmonte Farms, Inc. / 7-2
One of the more ouchy looking euro lines I’ve seen. Last was a nice race, but a couple point top, and based on her history she won’t be going forward off it, and she would need to too contend. Pass
5 Wait a While / Garrett Gomez / Todd A. Pletcher / Arindel Farm / 4-1
Her race two back was huge, if she can run close to that here she’ll get her picture taken. Not 100% sure she wants the distance, or that that one didn’t really take something out of her. Soft turf keeps her from being playable on top even if they don’t scratch which fairly likely. Playable in exotics
6 Lahudood (GB) (*09) / Alan Garcia / Kiaran P. McLaughlin / Shadwell Farm LLC / 10-1
Another whose connections don’t sound happy about the rain. Didn’t have her last time @ 20-1, and can’t see backing here to get that trip again against these at half the price. Pass
7 Argentina (IRE) / Kent Desormeaux / Robert J. Frankel / Stonerside Stable LLC / 12-1
Hasn’t won in two years, but has kept very good company, and likes it soft. Can’t figure a scenario where she wins, because she just doesn’t seem to have the will. She has been within two legths of the winner 6 of 8 times in the US, and probably is close at the end again. Playable in exotics
8 Timarwa (IRE) / Michael Kinane / John M. Oxx / H.H. The Aga Khan / 20-1
Will be toting 5 lbs less than in any start of her career and has plenty of experience on soft turf. Last was a moderate top and after being at the same level most of the year could signal an explosive forward move here. Here dam was a monster on both sides of the pond up to 10f and that is my only question here. What happens the last 1/4, at the price I guess I ‘ll pay to find out. Contender
9 Danzon / Julien Leparoux / Francois Parisel / Joseph Allen / 12-1
Has run a couple figs this year competitive with these this year. She’ll be dropping to the back, so the post isn’t a disaster. Don’t think she will have the punch to pass them all at 1-3/8 though, but she will get a few. Has a good record on soft going. Playable in exotics
10 Arravale / Jose Valdivia Jr. / McDonald Benson / Robert J. Costigan / 30-1
Isn’t fast enough, and is probably more suited to a mile. Pass
11 Simply Perfect (GB) / Johnny Murtagh / Jeremy Noseda / Derrick Smith, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier / 15-1
Last three figs were about what Red Rocks was running last year. Maybe I’m chasing ghosts since he cost me a bundle, but I think she has a huge shot. Most of her race have been at a mile and her long marathon was a disastrous trip. Pedigree says it shouldn’t be a problem. Worth noting that in July (she’s 3) she beat Irridescence who beat Ouija Board last year. Contender
12 Precious Kitten / Rafael Bejarano / Robert J. Frankel / Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey / 30-1
I think they have bitten off a couple more furlongs then she can chew. Add the pace pressure from All My Loving who she may not clear, and I just don’t see it. Pass
Summary
Win Contenders: Honey Ryder, Simply Perfect (GB), Timarwa (IRE)
Playable in exotics: Danzon, Wait a While, Argentina (IRE)
Horses coming off 1pt or better tops still have a dismal record, and horses coming off preps within a point of there previous top fire at a good rate. Horses with competitive tops that run off (1-5 pts) their top in their last prep also can\'t be ignored. The 7f course offers a fair run to the 1st turn, but the short stretch will hamper the stone cold closers.
1 Rebellion (GB) / Eibar Coa H. Graham Motion / James and Mary Lea Treptow / 50-1
Hasn\'t gone a mile in over 2 years but should save ground from the rail and has experience on wet turf. Last race was a 0.5 (2 pt top) but that came over poly and at 6f. Can\'t see him being one of the rare ones to pair up a top, at what isn\'t his best distance, and maybe not his best surface. Pass
2 Icy Atlantic / Chris DeCarlo / Todd A. Pletcher / James T. Scatuorchio / 30-1
Glad they have this guy running on his own accord, but they didn\'t do him any favors tossing him in here. He did run a marginally competitive \"1\" two years ago, but hasn\'t seen anything close to that since. His one run style also won\'t help. Pass
3 After Market / Alex Solis / John A. Shirreffs / Martin J. and Pam Wygod / 7-2
Ran a 0.5 (1.5 pt top) last time going a mile. He\'ll probably be making a wide run into the short stretch which makes him likely to be out of the money even with the unlikely pair up. Price will be short based on lofty reputation earned beating up on a comparatively weak group of California turf horses. Pass
4 Host (CHI) (*15) / Garrett Gomez / Todd A. Pletcher / Melnyk Racing Stables / 30-1
Not often you see a pair of Pletchers at 30-1 ml in a week, let along a single race. His top of 1.25 was run a few years ago, and he runs well fresh and tapers off. He will be making his 7th start since a layoff here, the longest campaign of his career, and I can\'t see him running anything close to competitive. Pass
5 Jeremy / Frankie Dettori / Sir Michael R. Stoute / Mrs. Elizabeth Moran / 5-1
Earned a respectable \"2\" a couple times across the pond at this distance. Euro figs seem about 2 pts slower in general. Equating it to a 0 here. Last race was a troubled 7 at 7f. He went into that race off a 2 month break and it looks like it was a prep for this. The adjusted 0 is competitive, but he\'ll need to get through a lot of traffic to make it up in time, and run better than a \"0\" to win. Both are unlikely, but there is enough to like to make him playable underneath. Playable in exotics.
6 Trippi\'s Storm / Javier Castellano / Stanley M. Hough E. / Paul Robsham Stable LLC / 8-1
Picked up a nice check last time while getting 9lbs from After Market who shipped cross country. Too slow to compete with these on even terms, and will probably get a wide trip. Wouldn\'t bet him at 80-1 much less 8-1. Pass
7 Cosmonaut / Julien Leparoux / Francois Parisel / Flying Zee Stables / 15-1
Paired his top running a 0 last time out in the Shadwell mile, as he did a year ago. Obviously likes the mile distance despite most of his races being longer. He has enough speed to be close enough into the short stretch, and could still have a bit of development left at 5. Contender
8 Kip Deville (*15) / Cornelio Velasquez / Richard E. Dutrow Jr. / Friends of Katman / 6-1
His top (-.75) came in the spring at Keeneland going a mile and it predictably knocked him out, running a 6th and an 8th his next two. His last was a 0.25 (technically a pair, w/in a point), the pattern is circling back to his top or very possibly a new top. Strong Contender
9 Nobiz Like Shobiz / John Velazquez / Barclay Tagg / Elizabeth Jones Valando / 8-1
Ran a 0 last time out, and with the 4lb allowance that\'s like a -0.8. Horses coming off negatives on turf have a very dismal record, next out he\'s close enough to the danger zone for a bounce to be almost certain. Don\'t like the change of plans to run here or the fact he never saves any ground. Pass
10 My Typhoon (IRE) / Eddie Castro / William I. Mott / Live Oak Plantation / 30-1
Her best is a \"2\", which would give her a nice shot in the week FMTurf this year. They are here anyway and even with the 3lbs, she just isn\'t fast enough. Pass
11 Silent Name (JPN) / Kent Desormeaux / Robert J. Frankel / Stronach Stables, Inc., Wertheimer et Frere / 30-1
Comes in off a four month layoff for new trainer Frankel, and two real stinkers. His best on turf is a 2, and best on poly is -0.5. I can\'t see him running new top here, and a pair of his best turf fig is too slow to be competitive. Pass
12 Purim / Jamie Theriot Thomas F. Proctor / Edward Joseph Sukley 20-1
Ran a -0.25 on the Arlington turf last spring, and took the predictable vacation shortly after. Came back over the winter to run OK, but has really gotten it back together the last two running 1\'s. Like Kip his circling back pattern points to further improvement. Dynaformer\'s typically get 1.5 pts better from 4-5 so he could get to the elite -2 range here. He\'s going to loose some ground from the outside post, but if he runs the -2 it won\'t matter. Strong Contender
13 Excellent Art (GB) (*09) / Johnny Murtagh / Aidan O\'Brien Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Matthew Green / 3-1
Ran a new top of 2.25 last out dispite some trouble. That compares to about a 0.25 here, and he gets a 4 lb allowance as a 3yo. The 3 yo Euro Turfers seem to run the highest % of new tops and sometimes big ones there first time here. He will probably be last early and save ground the first turn, but he is going to have a lot of traffic, to deal with and a short time to do it. Can\'t see him winning this, even though he may be the best horse. Playable in exotics.
14 Remarkable News (VEN) (*15) / Ramon Dominguez / Angel Penna Jr. Holly S. Rincon / 12-1
Isn\'t hurt as much as some others by the outside post, as he should be toward the front early, and Dominguez is one of the best ground saving muppets around. His best race was two back when re ran a 1. Last out was only slightly off that (2) with bar shoes on. He has an obscure pedigree but didn\'t make his first start until his 3 yo summer so it\'s likely he\'s a late developer and still has some inprovement left. The pattern points to a new top, and if his feet are OK, he\'s Playable in exotics.
Summary ~
Win candidates ~ Kip Deville, Purim, Cosmonaut
Possible 2nd or 3rd ~ Jeremy, Excellent Art, Remarkable News
Deep dime super ~ Rebellion, After Market, Nobiz Like Shobiz (Think I\'m playing 8,12 / 7,8,12 / 5,7,8,12,13,14 / 1,3,5,7,8,9,12,13,14 for a $9.60 ticket)
Breeders\' Cup Sprint
1 Smokey Stover / Aaron Gryder / Greg Gilchrist / Harry J. Aleo / 7-2
Fast & consistent Contender
2 Midnight Lute / Garrett Gomez / Bob Baffert / Pegram, Watson, and Weitman Performances LLC / 2-1
Just ran one of the fastest t-graph numbers ever, and it was a huge top. It not if he will bounce, it’s question of how much he will bounce. I think enough to keep him from winning for sure, but he could get up for a piece. Terrible value though. Playable in exotics
SCR Attila\'s Storm / John Velazquez / Richard E. Schosberg / R.D. Hubbard, Barry K. Schwartz, Wachtel Stable and Brous Stable / SCR
4 Talent Search / Ryan Fogelsonger / Mark Shuman / Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey / 15-1
Ran a big race at the track and distance two back. Should get a good trip with the scratch of the 3, and try to take the as far as he can. Can’t see him holding off everyone, but he could very well hang on for a piece. Playable in exotics
5 Kelly\'s Landing / Frankie Dettori / Eddie Kenneally / Summerplace Farm / 20-1
Can\'t see it off the long layoff and the issues he\'s had. Pass
6 Commentator / Joe Bravo / Nicholas P. Zito / Tracy Farmer / 12-1
Fast + Fresh = Contender
7 Idiot Proof / David Flores / Clifford W. Sise / Martin J. and Pam Wygod / 10-1
Ran a big fig a couple back that could win this, but was all over the place in the lane last time, probably won’t be getting back to that top anytime soon. Pass
8 Benny the Bull / Mark Guidry / Richard E. Dutrow Jr. / IEAH Stables, Greg James, Andrew Cohen / 6-1
Huge top last time into the range that knocks horses out. The 2 months off was a good idea, but probably won’t matter. He bounces to the moon. Pass
9 Bordonaro / Richard Migliore / William Spawr / Fred Carillo, Daniel A. Cassella / 15-1
Darkened his form up on poly, and moves forward going back to dirt at a nice price. Contender
10 Greg\'s Gold / C. C. Lopez / David E. Hofmans / William R. Boswell / 9-2
Only horse I know of to run back to back -1 or better figs on poly. Got a terrible trip last time, and could again from post 10. Playable in exotics
11 Forefathers / Kent Desormeaux / William I. MottZayat Stables LLC / 20-1
3 yo’s running negatives prepping for the sprint have little chance of repeating it, and his was a significant top and is far from competitive her to boot. Pass
Summary
Win Contenders: Smokey Stover, Commentator, Bordonaro
Playable in exotics: Midnight Lute, Talent Search, Greg\'s Gold
