Inflation in Prgress on TV

[stillinger]

Vic Stauffer is telling the world that racing has revolutionized racing analysis.
I knew after SC in SD, it was getting to be a requirement, but this fast, wow.

EVENT in my mind, like SDiego was.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Stillinger,

Help me out follow along...not quite understanding your post.

NC Tony

[stillinger]

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Stillinger,
>
> Help me out follow along...not quite understanding
> your post.
>
> NC Tony

Sorry, Tony.
I am obtuse without trying to be.

What I meant was Vic Stauffer, voice of Gulfstream, was on TVG saying without equivocation that TG had revolutionized handicapping, which I believe to be true of Jerry\'s company, but do not see it in my self interest to hear on TV. At one time early speed killed (60\'s), then we got more sand and speed figures and Beyer(70\'s), then we got pace pars, and pace based software ala Sartin(80\'s) that was pretty effective, and before he sold to the DRF, Lee Tomlilnson\'s sire book was an edge(90\'s), and parallel that Jerry split with Len and there became a great performance figure from someone that was easy to work with and this concern has had tremendous public success this year, and most notably the Pacific Classic winner giving a huge public boost to the sheets; FROM the WINNER\'s circle, into the microphone, to the nation.

Vic has always based his on air picks on TG, but today his statement was pointed; he stated categorically that the sheets had made the game make sense in a way heretofore impossible. That\'s my idea of inflation; information retains its value until its public knowledge. This product deserves its reputation in my opinion, but I have to admit I don\'t see that Jerry and Alan\'s self interest is directly parallel mine. In plainest English, I guess I would say I wish Vic had been quieter.

That\'s stupid, I know, but to retain an edge is hard in this game, and you need one in this deal for sure. It\'s stacked against, and you need all the edge you can get to stay in the black. That\'s all I meant. You have to constantly hone this craft, or you get run over. On the big board, time is always on the side of the money, inflation takes care of most people who own things, land, etc. In this deal, it\'s always today, and you always have to know more than you did yesterday.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Stillinger,

The reason I asked was because I was stationed in a hotel room all day without TVG etc.  A friend of mine was mentioning something about this same point and was hoping to piece the puzzle together.

I hear what you are saying. Would be nice to have a private edge of sorts. But this is not ours to say. Not so sure the masses and old school handicappers would take the time to understand sheet reading anyway. Not enough patience to learn something new. And I do believe that with the two major Speed Figure services out there, the bigger players have already cought on affecting the odds. Not nearly as many overlays as their used to be so to speak.

NC Tony

[miff]

Still/NCT

From back when, 20+years ago,TG and Rags users had a rather substantial edge, I was one of them.I feel the figs held up stronger back then esp TG, and you could count on scores fairly regularly.Maybe there were less juice trainers around and less data so the edge was greater.The most profound change in this area came when Beyer Figs were added to DRF especially given it\'s circulation.

I was just talking with a big bettor(TG guy) who lamented how tough it has become to beat the game.TG and Rags, Beyers in DRF,Brisnet, Eqiform and other data all over the place.The days of finding a solid, hidden 6-1 shot are basically over as those horses are now like 2-1.That alone reduces your margin of error dramatically if you are stepping out in the win pool.

The large p6 carryover pools now feature groups/syndicates betting gorilla size tickets rendering a sharp guy putting in 1-2 k almost impotent. No data or handicapper can match the power of the all button in a couple of p6 legs. I like to read that smaller tickets take down the big p6\'s and the syndicates get beat. I believe the Bris syndicate played a 50-60k P6 ticket on the BC and went down.Too funny, their advertisement boasted that Stanley Babish(former NTRA handicapping champ) was on the p6 team. This guy can\'t spell handicapper.

Personally, I hope the day comes when prop wagering becomes legal/popular and with large pools. We should also have a year long \"World Series\" type handicapping contest with meaningful entry fees,capped win odds and millions of dollars in prizes.It might \"juice\" the game up a bit more, not THAT juice.

Mike

[jma11473]

The idea of a yearlong national handicapping contest is quite good...I\'m sure there are a million logistical problems that could be pointed out, but I like it. If you had a huge payoff at the end (think World Series of Poker), it could get racing some good publicity. Okay, I know, good publicity is unlikely for racing, but it\'s still a good idea.

[fkach]

Miff,

If the prices on horses with fast speed figures are indeed falling, by definition that means the prices on other horss are rising.

If you think final time is the only thing that matters, you are probably in for a difficult time finding an edge. If you think there are other qualities to race horse ability and other factors that determine race results, then I would guess there is even more fertile ground in those areas now that more people are focusing on final time.  

IMHO (and my results confirm as much), speed figures are an indespensible tool, but they are not the whole ball of wax.

[miff]

Fkach,

The problem today is that there are very few \"hidden\" fast horses.Years ago, you could get 5-1 on a horse that is 2-1. As far as the other horses being inflated, they are usually much slower, though they win too.It\'s pretty easy today to spot a slow overrated rat if you have good data.That was not the case pre all the data/tools/info of today.

Any serious player knows that you cannot beat the game with speed figures alone but you have almost no chance of beating the game without them.

Mike

[fkach]

>As far as the other horses being inflated, they are usually much slower, though they win too<

I think you are missing my point.

Sometimes horses that have running slow recently have actually been running a lot better than it looks (and vice versa). You just have to have the insights to know which ones.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Great Points Mike....

I am in complete agreement. You couldn\'t say it any better. I\'ve had a conversation with jerry about this up at the SPA last year on the subject, and those sounded like his words. yesteryears you could find an overlay play once a day couple times a week, now it may be couple times a month if your\'re lucky.

The best plays now are when Beyers are overstated vis a vis TG Figs.

NC Tony

[stillinger]

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Great Points Mike....
>
> I am in complete agreement. You couldn\'t say it
> any better. I\'ve had a conversation with jerry
> about this up at the SPA last year on the subject,
> and those sounded like his words. yesteryears you
> could find an overlay play once a day couple times
> a week, now it may be couple times a month if
> your\'re lucky.
>
> The best plays now are when Beyers are overstated
> vis a vis TG Figs.
>
> NC Tony
You guys have stated it better than I did.
Agreement with those that say it is just a tool (and now you need a full bag of same) doesn\'t keep me from looking at diminishing value any way except ruefully (is that a word?). The  product is exactly as Vic stated,  a career in a picture. Since that is exactly my experience, I had to overcome even more than the usual \"twinge\". And if anyone asked me in under truth serum, I would say I was an opportunist, as opposed to a handicapper, but those OPPORTUNITIES are in need of all my for DI discipline to capture, and then hold that ground. All of which reminds me of something I was saying to girly more than a month ago, I think.

[TGJB]

Mike-- other than the bit about Babish (whom I don\'t know), I agree with every word of this post and your other one below, as Tony pointed out. I have tried to get the NTRA to do that year long contest in a \"Survivor\" type format, with the ones that survive playing live on the BC show. There was some interest, but cutbacks and shakeups have both made it hard to get something done with them, and by them.

[miff]

JB,

Not surprising that the survivor type contest got like 6k people in Cali and a few thousand in NY.I think it\'s like no money, $10 to enter.Now if one could attract say 5 to 10k players for an entry fee of a hundred or so,I\'d think alot of players would like to take a shot at say $500k first price with the next 19 highest making a nice score.Something like that.

I have thought of trying to do something like this but the logistics and cooperation needed from an NTRA or host Racetrack seems remote at best.The present NTRA contest is a bit of a stabfest and I told Pete Sr so,  but as you correctly stated, the NTRA is financially tight and not real receptive to anything new at present.


Mike

[richiebee]

TGJB--

Have always thought that it might be a decent marketing tool for TG if you tied
some sort of contest in with the Race of the Week. The contest could be open to
TG customers who had supported (read purchased) product at a certain level in
the past year or six months. Could be a weekly deal or run throughout the year
in a cumulative manner. Winner would have bragging rights, a TG baseball cap
and maybe some free product. Get the marketing department to work on this.

Will you be going to Japan with SC? Are you taking NCT as translator/photographer?

[TGJB]

I ain\'t going. It took me a month to get over going to Dubai with Super Frolic.

I actually know the woman that translated for Springsteen\'s people on one of their tours over there. And she\'s not Japanese, she\'s black.

I\'ll think about the contest idea, but I\'m more interested in ones that get us new people, though of course open to existing customers as well. We have done things where we gave product to the top ten in some handicapping contests, etc.