On Fire Is Stretching It

[TGJB]

...unless you are just talking about the last few races on Saturday, maybe.

I was in a very deep hole after Friday and the first few Saturday, starting with Kip De Ville I made most of it back (lost about 15% of what I bet for the two days). As I said in a post here last week, when I do the analysis I can\'t assume that everyone has a big bankroll, so I limit the multi-race plays I give out to ones that don\'t involve a lot of combinations. My big hit was the pick 3 starting with KDV, and my play was 4x4x4, weighted, with KDV and English Channel the heaviest, and that really wasn\'t the kind of play I can put up for the analysis.

I still can\'t believe I tossed Dylan Thomas out all the way through fourth, English Channel won, and I didn\'t cash anything within the race.

And Octave sure hurt my day.

Meanwhile, congratulations to the Graph Racing partnership that owns Pinata, who won the City Of Phoenix stakes at Turf Paradise Saturday.

[firmturf]

Congrats on the Stakes win. Hopefully you had that exacta.

I checked the red board room and I had that place horse a little faster then you guys did in her last.

It\'s good to see some east coast players mention my home track!

[Silver Charm]

Well, well, well, it seems Silver Charm has started another little fire himself. Seems so out of character for him.......

First off I did not win on Saturday. Broke even. Had MY Classic selections of Street Sense and AGS rolled in I would done very well but they cost me the late Pick Three.

Secondly I stick with what I posted earlier on the TG Analysis. This is in PDF, I didn\'t make it up. I have used the Analysis for years and if people expect to see 11 dead winners and 11 cold exacta, tri and super selections they are nuts. These are as much recommendations as they are selections. How you use it from there is up to you.

Things change. Unbridled Belle was my Tuesday selection in the Distaff but after four days of rain and seeing some other horses with questionable prior off track form run poorly I tossed her. I used the other two TG Selections and Hysterical Lady plus Bear Fan in the late Pick Three.

Earlier in the day I used the F&M Turf winner when TG was negative but could not score on the early Pick Four because I tried to beat the chalk in the Filly Juvy. Looked like a good place to hunt for bombs.  

If they say as in the case of Midnight Lute, he SCARES THEM but they are going to try and beat him does that mean you leave him off the Multi-Race Wager ticket? You do or you don\'t. Depends what else is on your ticket and how big that ticket is.  

The best way to describe the Analysis is that it is just that. An Analysis. What you do with it is entirely up to each individual Player and how he plays.

One mans opinion,

Eric Stoner

[girly]

Silver Charm wrote

The best way to describe the Analysis is that it is just that. An Analysis. What you do with it is entirely up to each individual Player and how he plays.

One mans opinion,

Eric Stoner

Totally agree-

[JimP]

Totally disagree. The Analysis product includes specifc bet recommendations. When they\'re right they\'re right. When they\'re wrong they\'re wrong. On Saturday they were very wrong. It\'s simple arithmetic. Just add up the cost of the recommended plays and then add up the actual payoffs for an ROI. That\'s all there is to it. TG has good days and bad days with their picks in the Analysis. Just like the rest of us I suppose. Saturday was just one of the bad days. No amount of spin will change the arithmetic.

As I said in a previous post. I didn\'t buy the Analysis. I prefer to do my own handicapping and make my own selections from the figures. I thought the TG figures were very good for the Saturday races. But the spin machine would have to be in high gear to make that same claim about the Analysis.

[shanahan]

you could not be more correct.  The math indicates a rather big loss using the wagering strategies.  Not the first time, but it\'s up to the bettor to use as a compliment to his/her own handicapping....however, when you tout TGNICKs great day a month or so back, feel free to say it wasn\'t a great analysis day on the biggest day of the year...two years in a row?

[Silver Charm]

Guys the Analysis gave out the late Pick Four no matter how you slice it. The bet paid $1,500 and could have cost as little as $3. 1x3x1x1.

That is also sliced up into TWO Pick Threes and the Late Double COLD.

If you use the TG Analysis to tell yourself HOW to bet that was your first mistake. Why? Because they do not know how you or I bet.

The Analysis on Friday and Sat was similar to Midnight Lute. Started slowly and finished with a rush.

An opinion supported by facts,

Eric Stoner

[TGJB]

Whoa, slow down. As I recall we had a good day last year with the BC analysis,  with Street Sense at a big price, and I think the big exacta in the Mile with Miesque\'s Approval.

The bottom line is that the specific plays I gave out in the analysis product this year lost. The seminar, however, was overall pretty good, as I made several winners the most likely winner of the race, either explicitly (English Channel, Curlin, Kip De Ville), or implicitly (War Pass), and took a big position against a 4/5 shot that ran out. Considering the extra randomness brought on by the track conditions, the seminar-- not the analysis product-- was pretty good.

I seem to remember that the only other seminar we did this year (Derby/Oaks) was pretty good too, since we made both winners the most likely winner.

The seminars for this year and the past years are available for free on this site for anyone who wants to listen to them.

[cubfan0316]

no need,pretty good anly.

[analizethis]

Late Saturday I pretty much stuck with the analysis with the big difference being that I completely tossed Lawyer Ron (last two numbers regressed from his top).
 
  Using an ABC system ala Steve Crist in Betting Exotics I invested $144 in late pick four tickets with two $1 winning tickets for a $3,013 payoff (about 19 - 1). My single A picks were Ginger Punch and English Channel and even if my B Hystericalady wins the photo in the Distaff I still cash a $1 ticket which probably would have paid double what the actual paid so I am indifferent (except maybe for the taxman\'s withholding slice).

  My opinion on double the payoff is based on the fact that pick four paid 37% more then the parley and if I replace Ginger Punch with Hystericalady in the parley and still assume a 37% premium I come to a similar number. Actually the real opportunity was in the Turf, where if my B selection, second place Shamdinan, somehow gets up I have $1 winner that is probably in the $7k range. My reason for including him is the soft turf (not considered in the analysis) but the confident toss of DT allows me the freedom to expand my ticket in that fashion.

   I have always used and will continue to use the seminar and ROTW products as nothing else is as good in identifying overbet favs and underbet longshots with similar chances to win.

   Thanks.

[stillinger]

cubfan0316 Wrote:
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> no need,pretty good anly.

I would just like to second this.

And list my favorite recent horses and how it applies to this past week end for me. A lot of the bad taste in my mouth after Friday was child of my thinking that the most impressive horses lately have been for me, Ghostzapper, Rags to Riches, Bernardini, Henny Huges, Discreet Cat and Lady Traviata. I also knew her ace was that she ordinarily breaks real sharply, and then takes a breath, which in most cases is excellent, and that the horse inside might make that impossible, but I got off Maryfield who I had solid the night before for that reason, and then when it got time to get down, I had to bet my baby - an example of how NOT to use the sheets.

I have shown my replays of Discreet Cat to casual visitors and to the family way too often. So, I missed a good spot, and lost a parlay. (At least I didn\'t bet twice). Sunday, I was afraid of the soft turf and let two favorite turfers go, and they were impressive. I did \"wake up\" in time to move to Curlin; the only bet I made, on the fact I had been touting how soft it was, and then remembering I said in the Spring, he\'s the BEST one.

I thought the analysis was excellent and I have listened to all of them. When it falls just right, so be it. In between, it\'s nice to be so close. I knew Ginger Punch was a great call because she would rate and finish as she proved this year, and Lute had proven how you needed to be, but that position scared me, and it did make it hard, I think.

I think the product stood right up. I was a little weak. Even for me. AQU!
skip

[JimP]

That was my only point. That anyone who followed the recommendations in the Analysis product would have lost. I was not talking about the Seminar, or the comments in the Sheets, or the Sheets themselves. Just the Analysis product. Some of the other entries in this thread seem to be confusing those 3 things. But it\'s not a big deal to me since I do my own selections using the figures and I don\'t rely on the betting recommendations in any product. Including the TG Analysis. Which has had some good days. Some better than I\'ve done on my own. But I don\'t buy betting recommendations. I do this game for fun. And makingt he selections is where the fun is for me. So that\'s all I\'m going to say about that subject. And now I\'m going to try to start another thread on a more interesting subject. At least more interesting to me. I\'ll be interested in hearing the comments from everyone on that subject.

[spa]

Silver you\'re full of you know what........You flipped the script dude. The best bets were the ones not listed!!!!! Even CtC, can\'t fly that pig. Using the analysis,I lost 15 straight bets($5k),I made most back using the analysis\' horses for the late double,that was before the red board. You can\'t make chicken salad out of chicken feathers. Will I buy the analysis again,you bet........