Doc Outs Dutrow Live today on ATRAB link below

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

You can\'t be serious Mike?

Plech did lose some luster recently and the question is \"why\". winning at 13% at Belmont was not bad for most trainers but Plech was down on his strike rate. Once again though, he won the most money. Which means his top flight graded stakes horses for some reason get it done most meets even when he\'s struggling a bit overall.

Baffert has three Derby wins. Two of which he did with 17K and 70K horses.

He has a bunch of Preaknesses and at least one Belmont too.

Baffert is 5 times the horseman Plech is and to my knowledge has never employed Allday.

Unlike Lawyer Ron for instance, Lute had never really had the consistency to establish a level of performance. There was a lot of white on his sheet for time off. Some of it may have been the throat issue. He\'s still running infrequently, but I do believe hes found his level once they got him off those fake surfaces.  Lute wants to roll on real dirt. If you\'re not factoring that you\'re missing a big part of Lute\'s new level of performance.

The sheets on the two horses are not remotely comparable.

Midnight Lute may be the best Baffert has had in some time and unlike Lawyer Ron, I don\'t think hes been \"Alldayed\". We\'ll see how he handles back to back -7\'s. My guess is that unlike Plech, Baffert will give him time. I also dont anticipate seeing him on Poly again. On poly hes just another horse.

Lets try to focus though. This is about breaking Pletcher down and making him run fairly.


miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Poor Chuck, drank too much Kool Aide. What was LR
> choppped liver when Holthius had him at 3? Enough
> about TAP who\'s stable is probably achieving at
> par, all things considered.
>
>
> Based on your inane theory what possibly could
> account for Midnight Lute running a pair of neg
> 7\'s no less. Don\'t tell me it was the 3 epi/throat
> operations either.Baffy\'s now a move up guy?
>
> Mike

[sighthound]

Jerry, I agree with all you say about the limitations of CO2 testing, and I don\'t even know why they bothered to spend the money to test CO2 pre-BC.  Means little to nothing.

Have you ever gone through your figures, and established percentages for ALL trainers, for broad level and class of horse?  I am talking about knowing that So-and-so\'s horses, when off the claim, can be expected to have an X% increase in their performance number, etc.  This is not the same as winning percentage off claim, etc.; and ignores other variables.  It\'s is much the same as a broad overally win-ITM percent number.  It attempts to quantitate expected % of moveup.

A huge task, but would be valuable data to include in the product.  Whether such an increase (or decrease) was due to legal reasons or not.

Can you post the information you have on Dutrow?  Pletcher?  Compared to a couple of other trainers with that type of horse in questions?

[sighthound]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:>

>>Baffert is 5 times the horseman Plech is and to my
> knowledge has never employed Allday.

Good lord, that\'s a matter of opinion.

[miff]

Chuck,

Again you have it wrong. Baffy is notorious for drilling them in between races and running back a lot quicker than TAP.Again Chuck what trainer has like 50 stakes runners in their barn, answer NONE.It\'s a sheer volume game with TAP but his % of stakes winners vs starters can\'t be too impressive, but I don\'t know what it is.

Re Baffy, he has a bunch of nice runners now and I assume he knows what he is doing but the term \"horseman\" is too loosely used in the game.


Mike

[xichibanx]

Per DRF: Midnight Lute will probably be in the Cigar Mile on Thanksgiving Weekend and the Dubai World Cup in March.

[fkach]

Chuckles,

Even if you are right about Pletcher, your arguments are so ridiculous sometimes it\'s hard to take you seriously.

You seem to have enough knowledge and insight into handicapping to notice that Midnight Lute was still lightly raced, recently had a throat operation, and may prefer real dirt. However, the fact that LR was still a rank 3YO when he put up some good figures early last year and hit his best stride as a more relaxed 4YO after a few starts for a new trainer (a typical pattern for many horses) totally escapes you.

The problem with your analysis is that you start with the conclusions (Pletcher cheats and Baffert doesn\'t) and then try to make the case instead of looking at all the possible logical explanations for both horses\' performances.

[spa]

I\'ve followed Midnight Lute from day one and I thought he had two surgeries. Baffert admitted he\'d had three. Forget the surface,it\'s getting his breath and then he changed it all........

[sighthound]

fkach Wrote:
> The problem with your analysis is that you start
> with the conclusions (Pletcher cheats and Baffert
> doesn\'t) and then try to make the case instead of
> looking at all the possible logical explanations
> for both horses\' performances.

Exactly.  

And that is my problem with determining, \"a trainer must be cheating\" off of only handicapping figures, too.  

I\'ve seen detailed explainations over the years here of how some jumps in ability simply do not exist normally within the statistical confines of a particular handicapping method - thus they can\'t exist naturally, hence the trainer must be cheating.

No other possible explainations - least of all what\'s happening, or not, with the living animal (which outsiders are rarely privy to, anyway) - are considered.

What if Baffert didn\'t discuss Midnight Lute\'s throat problems publically.  How would you guys explain that one?  Cheating?

[stillinger]

Doc - Sorry to bother, I know you are busy, and I never stay on topic here, but could you sneak in a clarification of this URL? I don\'t see where to go to get the audio of DR. Allday\'s STREAM of consciousness disclosure about Tricky. And he is good. skip, havin\' a Sunny Sunday here in the West, just need the link.

[stillinger]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Poor Chuck, drank too much Kool Aide. What was LR
> choppped liver when Holthius had him at 3? Enough
> about TAP who\'s stable is probably achieving at
> par, all things considered.
>
>
> Based on your inane theory what possibly could
> account for Midnight Lute running a pair of neg
> 7\'s no less. Don\'t tell me it was the 3 epi/throat
> operations either.Baffy\'s now a move up guy?
>
> Mike

He was loaded for bear, wasn\'t he, that Lute. wow

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Oh yeah, I forgot about that one:

\"Lawyer Ron suddenly began smoking negative 6\'s because Plech put a master exercise rider up and taught him to rate.\"

Really? Anyone see a rating Lawyer Ron in the B.C.Classic last week? He was motoring to try and stay with Hard Spun and Hardy wore him out.

Look at those other efforts including him getting run down by Curlin in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and tell this board he rated kindly.

The only difference is Lawyer Ron moved up into competition he can\'t smoke from the gate. Enough already.

Crazy, crazy stuff.



fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles,
>
> Even if you are right about Pletcher, your
> arguments are so ridiculous sometimes it\'s hard to
> take you seriously.
>
> You seem to have enough knowledge and insight into
> handicapping to notice that Midnight Lute was
> still lightly raced, recently had a throat
> operation, and may prefer real dirt. However, the
> fact that LR was still a rank 3YO when he put up
> some good figures early last year and hit his best
> stride as a more relaxed 4YO after a few starts
> for a new trainer (a typical pattern for many
> horses) totally escapes you.
>
> The problem with your analysis is that you start
> with the conclusions (Pletcher cheats and Baffert
> doesn\'t) and then try to make the case instead of
> looking at all the possible logical explanations
> for both horses\' performances.

[richiebee]

Miff:

To be thorough, add to your list of \"usual suspects\" winning BC races Biancone
and Doug O\'Neill, who won Friday BC races.

The performance enhancement debate rages on. The lines are drawn between those
who have hands on knowledge of the equine, and those who wouldn\'t know Big Red
from Mr. Ed yet are firm in their belief that drugs can be used to explain
almost any performance, good or bad. And of course there are those whose
interest in Racing is strictly pari- mutuel and would only object if the number
of wagering opportunities was restricted or if a major handicapping contest was
cancelled.

Racing can identify the cheaters but chooses not to punish them appropriately,
in a manner which would have a deterrent effect. The two most significant
trainers on the NY circuit --Contessa (most prolific in number of
starters) and Dutrow (more or less the highest % trainer in NY) are both
currently set down. They will be back and continue business as usual and I can
almost guarantee a medication positive for each of these trainers if Racing is
conducted in NY in 2008.

In the words of Frankie Pentangeli, \"I\'m tired and I\'m a little drunk...Cicci, a
porta\"

[docicu3]

stillinger Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Doc - Sorry to bother, I know you are busy, and I
> never stay on topic here, but could you sneak in a
> clarification of this URL? I don\'t see where to go
> to get the audio of DR. Allday\'s STREAM of
> consciousness disclosure about Tricky. And he is
> good. skip, havin\' a Sunny Sunday here in the
> West, just need the link.


No problem.....go to Steve Byk\'s ATRAB which is now....

http://www.thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/

In the upper right corner click on the link for the archives.  Then choose November 2, then play the first hour of the three hour show.  The goodies are about 2/3rds into the first hour but to get the context of the thing you really should listen to the whole first hour.

There are times on occasion when the program can drag like a Tuesday Beulah 3K claimer but this whole show is simply as interesting and provocative as anything the racing industry has ever done on the subject.  

The beauty of the broadcast is the candor and spontaneity of the participants, who were neither planned nor scripted to my knowledge, from Allday to hall of fame trainer John Veitch, the Ky chief state Steward, the discussion crackles for 2 and a half hours that should not be missed by serious racing fans.

[docicu3]

I wish there was a fair way to tighten the HCO3/CO2 numbers as you discuss Jerry but
the phenomena of \"contraction alkalosis\" does not allow you to view normal as you intimate in horses and people.  Lasix is one of many reasons for this where a non milkshake effect can create severe metabolic alkalosis that is not due to alkaline administration thus your CO2 venous level is very suspect.

In conditions of intravascular depletion, dehydration or Lasix administration, the kidney creates it\'s own metabolic alkalosis to maintain electrical neutrality by an ion exchange mechanism or by replacing chloride with bicarb.  Without controlling the hydration status of the horse or person there is a much wider normal than you suggest which will ruin your data for normal as you are describing it.  There are simple tests to detect this being done but that\'s not what your premise is about.

Publishing serum HCO3/CO2 numbers for trainers isn\'t going to help identify the cheaters and if a trainer ever had enough financial backing to push this scientific set of facts the whole house of cards is going to fall.

[cubfan0316]

do we let this happen do to the money aspect? are we afraid that if we get rid of these guys they will take their wealthy clients and go elsewhere? i think so.