Today at SA

[pj]

Lava Man goes today in the 10th at SA (Cal Cup Classic Handicap). He will undoubtedly be favored, and IMHO a tremendous bet-against. I think he\'s pretty much fried. Granted, he\'s not going up against too much in this CA bred field. But he\'s conceding up to 11 pounds to the others. And he\'s outside in PP 10.

If Alex Solis can settle Valiant Effort, I think he has a good shot at ML Odds of 12-1. Hopefully, he\'ll go off higher.

pj

[spa]

I like Celtic D......

[Rick B.]

Rush With Thunder: Looks like the big efforts at DMR have taken their toll. Toss.

Cheroot: Return off long layoff doesn\'t inspire. Toss.

Celtic Dreamin: Decent 3yo campaign, top and two pairs. Extra distance lone concern. Contender.

Tiz Afire: Good try in return after almost 3 month freshening. Solid router. Contender.

Add Heat: Add speed. Toss.

Valiant Effort: Put up a good number in NW1X win last, but \"rank\" three times this year is a concern. ITM only, don\'t see him running back to last.

Seminole Native: Lone fake track try OK. ITM is possible.

A Gallant Discover: Road Warrior just runs his race. Can close. We are supposed to be suspicious of an older horse who just ran a new lifetime top, but I can\'t get away from this one. Mig on board is a huge plus. Contender.

Lava Man: Hard to use, hard to toss. Certainly worth taking a shot against. I\'ll use him underneath only, and tip my cap to him if he wins.

Bold Chieftain: Had no excuse last and seems to be going wrong way. Toss.

Summary: Celtic Dreamer, Tiz Afire, and A Gallant Discover all live at decent prices. If Lava Man doesn\'t have it today, exotics will be very juicy with top three or the other ITM horses in the mix. Bombs away!

[girly]

I have an engagement this evening and won\'t find out until tomorrow what happens, but thank you for your thorough analysis-

[Rick B.]

You\'re welcome, but I don\'t know about \"thorough\". I have a lot to learn when it comes to using TG, so caveat emptor on that analysis.