Question for JB

[Totalsmaster]

Jerry-

Is the bounce factor stronger following a strong race on soft turf?  I had never heard this before but I read a comment by James Quinn, who said that any horse coming off a strong race on soft turf (where the DRF track variant was at least 30) should be a definite bet against next time out. He used the recent Breeders Cup turf runners as an example and horses like Nobiz Like SHobiz and Nashoba\'s Key should be played against.  What is your take on the \"soft turf\" bounce?

[EJXD2]

How many horses run consecutive races on soft turf? It\'s very rarely an apples-to-apples comparison.

Typically a horse who runs well on soft turf does so because A) it\'s a high quality animal to begin with (since most races in the U.S. run on soft turf are stakes races), and B) that horse doesn\'t mind soft turf.

If a horse \"freaks out\" on soft turf, then couldn\'t that be because that horse excelled on that type of surface? A return to firm turf form next out is just that--a return to firm turf form and not a \"bounce.\"

If a horse runs 6-2-2-6-2 where the \"2s\" are at Turfway and the \"6s\" are at Beulah, then is a six in the horse\'s next start at Beulah a bounce or just a return to dirt form?

EdD

[miff]

\"Is the bounce factor stronger following a strong race on soft turf? I had never heard this before but I read a comment by James Quinn, who said that any horse coming off a strong race on soft turf (where the DRF track variant was at least 30) should be a definite bet against next time out. He used the recent Breeders Cup turf runners as an example and horses like Nobiz Like SHobiz and Nashoba\'s Key should be played against. What is your take on the \"soft turf\" bounce?\"


Total,

I did not see the quote of the knowledgeable Jim Quinn but find it hard to believe that he viewed the performance of Nashoba\'s Key as \"strong\"

No Biz had a very tough wide trip in a slow a paced race, a double whammy.


Mike

[TGJB]

I don\'t have any reason to believe it matters what surface the top was run over. It can make a difference what surface the NEXT race is over-- any extreme or unusual conditions give a horse that already has a possible reason not to extend himself more reason not to do so. I would put off tracks and soft turf in this category.

[analizethis]

I certainly don\'t know for sure but I would guess that the theory might be that a \"top\" on soft turf might be more taxing om a runner due to the deep conditions. Like any theory it needs to be tested against actual results and I don\'t know if Mr. Quinn has done that or just developed his reasoning from anecdotal observation.