Huckabee

[heatherk]

I know this is a little off what we try to accomplish here but I was watching a report regarding the candidates ability to garner fundamentalist votes when a comment by Republican Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee insulted me. In a recent statement he associates gamblers with drug dealers, saying we must rid ourselves of our societies worst problems. I\'m sorry, I don\'t connect gambling with drug dealing. Just FYI.

[richiebee]

Heatherk:

Without taking the dialogue on a path most posters/lurkers do not want to
travel on, I suggest you google \"Dan Lasater\" and you might see why, at least
in Arkansas, drug dealing and the racing game might always be linked.

Speaking of the people Huckabee is trying to get cozy with, I saw an interview
of Phil Spector conducted in the year 2000 where Spector was asked \"What do you
think of the \'Religious Right\'\"?

Spector\'s reply: \"I think they are neither\".

[TGJB]

Richie-- I\'m trying to deal with the idea of Spector being quoted on a moral issue.

When I first came into the game, back at Ragozin\'s, Lasater/Dave Vance was the first move-up outfit, predating Oscar by several years. I think they won 40% of their starts at a Keystone (now Philly Park) meet. And they ran a lot of entries.

Meanwhile, I got down at 10-1 on McCain for the nomination. I make him about even money right now.

[toppled]

What is McCain\'s top and can he run a new one?

[richiebee]

Mr. Spector certainly a few french fries short of a Happy Meal.

Lasater, who made his fortune by coming up with the idea to serve steak as fast
food (either Sizzler or Bonanza) was nation\'s leading owner for a couple of
years.

If I am not mistaken, he owned a very quick mare named Red Cross who was tough
to beat between 5f and 6f. This was when thoroughbred racing was conducted at
both Liberty Bell and Keystone.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think Spector got a bum deal on that girlfriend suicide bit. Crazy woman offs herself in your bed and other than donuts, whats the first thing to cross a cops mind? But even a murderer can have a handle on the non religious wrong. On that account Phil Spector once again was dead aim on.

As for the Republican nomination, I\'ll take Huckabee despite his current monetary woes. The kooks are like a juicing trainer, its not hard to anticipate what they will do.





TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie-- I\'m trying to deal with the idea of
> Spector being quoted on a moral issue.
>
> When I first came into the game, back at
> Ragozin\'s, Lasater/Dave Vance was the first
> move-up outfit, predating Oscar by several years.
> I think they won 40% of their starts at a Keystone
> (now Philly Park) meet. And they ran a lot of
> entries.
>
> Meanwhile, I got down at 10-1 on McCain for the
> nomination. I make him about even money right now.

[mbeychok]

you fellas need to stick to the horses. my biz is politics and mccain better have a move up trainer with him tuesday. he\'s got one shot and one shot only and it is NH. on the side of right - the dem side - there is no stopping obama at this point. he\'ll win NH and win SC. after that, who will want to vote for HRC.

her speech last night was laughable with all the gray hairs standing behind her and HRC repeating change, change, change.  very funny political theater.

the rep side is complicated. rudy is waiting to take on the leader after NH and i\'d give him a shot to clip them because he has a lot of bullets.

mccain at 10-1 was certainly value but i wouldn\'t make him even money now. maybe 3-1.

now to horseracing. i hit the pk6 at SA on new years day mostly thanks to thorograph. i was shocked when i saw the will pays thought they would be 10% of that.  thanks for the good numbers guys.

michael

[fkach]

>Meanwhile, I got down at 10-1 on McCain for the nomination. I make him about even money right now.<

It looks like he\'s about 2-1 at the off shore books now.

I still think he has the same major problems he had to start with.

1. He isn\'t the favorite of the religious right.  

2. He remains hugely vulnerable to attack on the illegal immigration issue.

If you remove those two groups from the republican base, you are left with a very limited number of republicans that will vote for him.  

Plus, if he loses N,H. he\'s toast financially.

I see him as having a ceiling that will be tough to overcome even though the opposition is so poor.

IMO, his best chance is if it remains a 4-5 way race all the way through. That way he can keep getting 15%-25% of the vote and remain near the top of each primary. But if 2-3 guys drop out or fall sharply and he winds up going to head with either Romney or Huckabee I think he will lose that kind of contest because of the problems above. He might be able to compete head to head with Rudy for the religious conservatives because they don\'t like him either.

[girly]

Do people really bet on these races?

[fkach]

Some people will bet on anything. ;-)

[TGJB]

You guys are missing the point-- it\'s not about McCain, it\'s about the other guys, all of whom have huge holes in them that make them unelectable. After next week Romney will be a non-factor, Thompson will quit and throw his support to McCain, and Guliani will only have a faint heartbeat, leaving it primarily a 2 person race. In the long run Huckabee is unlikely to beat McCain (foreign policy experiance is too big an issue), and the nice things he\'s been saying about him may indicate he\'s already angling for VP.

For the record, if you go back about a month ago on this site, I said it would be Obama vs. Huckabee or McCain. At that point Obama was a weak second choice in the betting (2-1), the other two were 3rd and 4th choices in their party.

All of which, by the way, is very good news for a couple of customers of ours (and top contest players) who run the McCain campaign in a big racing state. And no, I did not talk to them before I shot off my mouth.

[fkach]

TGJB,

It\'s true that the other candidates are terrible, but that\'s the only thing giving McCain any chance at all.  You are neglecting the fact that McCain is underfinanced, despised by everyone that considers illegal immigration one of the major issues (which is a hell of a lot of republicans if you listen to talk radio), not a favorite of the religious conversatives, and old.  

He\'s probably one of the most electable republicans in the general election, but you still have to get out of the primaries.  

This is a lot like a non-winner of 2 races lifetime.

You can\'t look at the first 4-5 horses, see that they are slow and have bad patterns, and conclude the 6th must be a huge favorite. He may suck too (at least in the eyes of many republicans).

[Michael D.]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You guys are missing the point-- it\'s not about
> McCain, it\'s about the other guys, all of whom
> have huge holes in them that make them
> unelectable. After next week Romney will be a
> non-factor, Thompson will quit and throw his
> support to McCain, and Guliani will only have a
> faint heartbeat, leaving it primarily a 2 person
> race. In the long run Huckabee is unlikely to beat
> McCain (foreign policy experiance is too big an
> issue), and the nice things he\'s been saying about
> him may indicate he\'s already angling for VP.
>
> For the record, if you go back about a month ago
> on this site, I said it would be Obama vs.
> Huckabee or McCain. At that point Obama was a weak
> second choice in the betting (2-1), the other two
> were 3rd and 4th choices in their party.
>
> All of which, by the way, is very good news for a
> couple of customers of ours (and top contest
> players) who run the McCain campaign in a big
> racing state. And no, I did not talk to them
> before I shot off my mouth.


hi Jerry,

McCain is going to have to run against the 501\'s in the south. the 501\'s don\'t like McCain\'s vote on the tax cuts. just a hurdle to think about if you\'re for the senator.

all this noise and confusion on the Republican side might play into Rudy\'s strategy (especially if Thompson takes his campaign to SC). the far right doesn\'t like McCain, Huck, or Rudy, but they could very well wind up going with Rudy, mainly over taxes.


current prices for the nom are McCain 3-1 and Rudy 4-1 ... 7-1 and 10-1 to take it all.

[TGJB]

Just as Huckabee will have a lot more money by Monday than he did yesterday, McCain will have what he needs after New Hampshire. The neo-con/big money only matters if they have a candidate, and by that time they won\'t-- Romney\'s gone, Rudy\'s close to gone, and his views on social issues are a big problem with the evangelicals.

Change is in the wind, as evidenced by the size of the turnout yesterday. The voters want fresh air and athenticity, and the ones who have it are Obama, Huckabee (\"bunker mentality\"), McCain (bashing ethanol in Iowa), and Ron Paul. They\'re the ones with the momentum.

I wouldn\'t consider betting the general, not knowing whether there will be 2, 3 (Bloomberg), or 4 (Paul) candidates makes it unhandicappable.

[Silver Charm]

Play a McCain/Huckabee BOX and bet the mortgage in the general election.

Hillary is washed out badly in the paddock and kicking her stall. Obama is a Grade III type getting good at the right time.