Delaware numbers

[EJXD2]

I\'ve been familiar with Thorograph for about two years now but did not become a more serious user until this summer.

In handicapping races in New York I noticed that horses often ran tops at Delaware Park. The numbers there were always better than at other tracks to the point that I would temper my enthusiasm about a seemingly faster horse if the better numbers were only done at Delaware.

Any insight into this?

[RICH]

I am assuming you mean the horses ran some big tops at Del, to me this has been ongoing for awhile. I too basically temper my enthusiasm for races at Del and Phil when I see isolated tops, and when shipping to new york. I chalk it up to move-up trainers and liberal drug policies. Strange things happen at those 2 tracks

[miff]

Finger Lakes shippers are almost as bad.In Delaware there seems to be enormous move ups which do not occur when the same horses ship to NY.Probably can\'t get away with using the same \"stuff\" in NY, hence the falloff in performance.

Finger Lakes shippers are another story which I have my own opinion on.


Mike

[marcus]

interesting topic and in a semi related context was just wondering if - it was just legend that Finger Lakes shippers do better at Saratoga than at Belmont because of turns ...

[SoCalMan2]

Any chance Mike/Miff would be willing to share his personal Finger Lakes theory?  Inquiring minds want to know.

[miff]

So Cal,

Only because you asked,I discussed the FL figs with Jerry last year. It was  evident to me that FL horses in general had lofty TG figs compared to Beyer(after adjustment for ground/weight) and Rags.The fig differences are substantial but this is not the first time you will see major differences between the top 3 fig makers at a certain circuit.

Fl shippers that looked \"best\" or highly competitive generally ran nowhere near their TG figs at AQU.Jerry felt that maybe FL shippers needed one race over the track  before running their number but would look at the circuit(FL) going forward.

From my experience, I am very cautious with FL shippers, tossing many, not all, notwithstanding the TG fig when there is a big difference with other reliable data unless there are other reasons, eg race shape etc. My approach has not hurt me, yet!


Mike

[TGJB]

We did look at the FL figures last year and did add a little bit. We\'re still looking at them.

Delaware is a different story. That place has been the wild west, though they have passed some tesing rules recently that might change things next year (including I think a steroids ban, which should make Jon Tannen happy). Gorham, for example, gets much better figures there (and wins more) than at other places, and Lake and others get numbers there they do not get in NY.

BUT-- in doing Aqu days recently I have seen an awful lot of suspicious jumps, some from unusual suspects. It\'s giving Alan a real headache with the analysis, and I\'m betting other tracks right now.

[SoCalMan2]

Thank you very much, Miff/Mike.  Your sharing is very much appreciated.  

I find this topic extremely interesting.  It is something that comes up from time to time.  There used to be people raising the same issue about how the California figures were comparing when the horses ran back east.

Thank you to TGJB for the information about Aqu.  

TGJB, is it okay with you if this board establishes a dedicated thread exclusively for people to raise specific suspicious sheets?  They could be suspicious for jump up reasons, suspicious for circuit discrepancy reasons, suspicious simply because of possible error. I think it would be very interesting for people and give a novel window into the figuremaking world, but I would also understand if you would not want people to get into too much specifics for proprietary reasons.

[TGJB]

Email me any \"suspicious\" sheets-- Jerrybrown@thorograph.com