2007 Derby Figs

[BitPlayer]

TGJB -

The 2007 Derby was a little odd in that a much larger proportion of horses ran new tops or paired old ones than in past Derbies.  Have you ever gone back to look at how well those Derby figs held up?

I am not, mind you, suggesting that there\'s anything wrong with the figs.  In fact, from looking briefly at the Derby horses who ran back in the BC Classic, the figs seem to have held up well.  I\'m just asking the question.

If the figs are solid, I wonder whether the improved performances reflect a sea change, due to improved methods of preparing for the Derby (fewer races, more time between final prep and Derby Day), that should be reflected in my futures betting strategy.

[TGAB]

Looks like they\'ve held up quite well. Here they are as of 1/30/8.

[BitPlayer]

It does indeed.  Many thanks.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

It would be pretty hard to argue with the tops as scored. The overall patterns look a little static, which is somewhat odd. But a negative 3 and zero are plotted so close to each other on the graph that theres a bit of a \"static illusion\". Theres a little more variance to the numbers than the image illustrates.

The one clearly Brilliant horse, Curlin, has a little more contour to his sheet. I\'ll take exception with how the Belmont was scored however, believeing it to be roughly 3 or so points slower than scored. The Belmont should look like Mt.Everest on this graph.

Tensing Norgay

TGAB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Looks like they\'ve held up quite well. Here they
> are as of 1/30/8.

[miff]

Bit,

SS and Curlin went in 21 days spacing. The biggest toss in derby history imo, Cir Quay went in 55 days, more rest ??. Every horse is different, trying to paint them with one spacing brush has never and will never work.The idea that 4 weeks spacing is better than 3 weeks in ALL instances is baseless.In 2006 Barbaro won 5 like weeks out I believe, they\'re just all different.


Except for the TC series most of the Gr 1s, and 2\'s are written app 4 weeks apart so that spacing is kinda forced on the horse.


Mike

[BitPlayer]

Miff –

My issue is not about what amount of rest is best (which really becomes more relevant as we get closer to Derby Day), but about whether there has been a change (for any reason) in the ability of horses to hold their form through the Derby (which is more relevant to betting this weekend\'s futures pool).  I have historically bet the field (without success) in Pool 1, and I\'m wondering whether to stop.  It seems to me that we\'ve been losing fewer contenders to pre-Derby injury in the past couple of years, and (as I suggested in my original post) more horses in last year\'s field were able to pair or improve their tops than history would have predicted.

To your point, however, I would point out that 4 horses ran new tops last year:

Hard Spun (6 weeks\' rest)
Imawildandcrazyguy (5 weeks)
Tiago (4 weeks)
Sam P (4 weeks)

Circular Quay paired his top (despite trouble) after 8 weeks\' rest.  Street Sense had only 2 preps.  I agree, however, that each horse is an individual case.

[miff]

Bit,

Thought you were inferring that more rest is some kind of advantage.CQ came close to his top by ground methodology not because he ran fast or was any factor at any point in the Derby.\"No run\" were the words of Johnny V re CQ\'s derby performance.

Mike